Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ithaca, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
125 AM Update:

Our active weather pattern will continue today as a cold front pushes through the region this afternoon and evening. Before the front pushes through, southwesterly flow will increase moisture and instability out ahead or the front. CAPE increases to about 2000 J/kg from the NYS Thruway on northward and further south the instability will be weaker with 1200 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE.
Also, westerly flow will be increasing and 0-6km shear will edge up to near 35kts. A limiting factor with this event could be weaker mid level lapse rates and this is likely the reason for not a slight risk from SPC at this time. One thing to note is the strong helicity that forecast soundings are showing north of the NYS thruway with the strongest values in Oneida County. Also, curved hodographs show the potential for rotating thunderstorms, with possible supercell structure. Although the main threat with these storms this afternoon will be damaging winds and hail, the low level helicity can't be ignored and a tornado could be possible if everything lines up with instability and the timing of the shortwave as well.

Any lingering showers quickly end later this evening following the passage of the cold front as drier and cooler air advects into the region. High pressure builds in behind the front with low temperatures overnight expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s and highs on Friday only in the low to mid 70s with low humidity.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
140 AM Update...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will maintain calm and clear conditions Friday night. Northwest flow will aid in dropping overnight temperatures into the 50s for most of the area, with some spots in northern Oneida dipping into the upper 40s. Mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday morning but clouds will start to fill in ahead of the next approaching system. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday evening into Sunday as a shortwave moves in from the west. While sounding profiles show somewhat favorable 0-6 km bulk shear, instability appears limited. Overnight temperatures Saturday will return to the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
140 AM Update...

Rain showers and thunderstorms will persist into Sunday as frontal system slowly pushes east. Model guidance suggests the cold front will pass through the region sometime between Sunday morning and the afternoon. Drier air moves in Sunday night as high pressure begins to build over the area. This high will dominate Monday and Tuesday, keeping conditions quiet and dry.
Northwest flow will also help maintain seasonably comfortable temperatures. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak upper- level ridge will shift eastward, allowing an embedded shortwave to approach. This feature may bring a return of showers and thunderstorms sometime midweek, though model guidance continues to vary on exact timing.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning at AVP, BGM and ELM, but confidence is low on timing and coverage of this MVFR deck.
Conditions return to VFR by mid- late morning, however, some restrictions will be possible with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially at SYR and RME. Low confidence with thunderstorm coverage and on the timing, but storms will likely be widespread further north with impacts at SYR and RME most likely.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.