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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 350 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers early, then showers likely late this morning. A chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Monday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 021344 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 844 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Some scattered rain showers this morning, followed by drying for most of the area this afternoon. Additional periods of rain are expected as another low pressure system moves through on Sunday, bringing some higher rainfall amounts. Temperatures will be above average into early next week. The pattern remains unsettled next week, with a cooling trend and perhaps some snow showers by mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
645 AM Update

Matched up PoPs and showers with the latest radar trends; this bumped up PoPs for the Twin Tiers where a band of light rain is currently in place. Still expected a drying trend for most of the area by late morning and afternoon, and also allowed for some more breaks in the clouds with this update across NE PA and the southern tier, where the CAMs are showing this potential.

400 AM Update

Just some lingering patchy drizzle or a few isolated showers around this morning under the moist southwest flow pattern. A nearly stationary front is located up along the south shore of Lake Ontario, and this will be the focal point for thicker, lower clouds and more scattered showers through the day today.
Further south, across Northeast PA and likely into the Twin Tiers there should mainly dry conditions this afternoon and perhaps a few, partial breaks in the clouds. The southwest winds will allow temperatures to rise well up into the upper 40s to mid-50s across most of the area later today. Far northern Oneida will stay colder today though, being right along the above mentioned boundary, with temperatures holding in the lower 40s.

Mainly quiet weather continues this evening, with the stationary boundary remain in place across north-central NY...again this could be enough to trigger some scattered to isolated showers over the Finger Lakes and I-90 corridor. Temperatures hold in the upper 30s to mid-40s through the evening hours. After midnight, heading into the predawn hours Sunday another wave of moisture begins to develop over the Mid-Atlantic and rides north into PA. There remain some minor timing differences in the latest hi-res guidance on how fast this rain moves north.

The current official forecast brings the developing rain shield north into the Wyoming Valley by 3-6 AM Sunday, and into the NY Southern Tier by 4-7 AM. This rain will be developing in response to an upper level trough diving into the Central Great Lakes and a weak coastal surface low pressure center. Additional periods of rain overspread the entire forecast area during the day on Sunday as the coastal low moves north and the primary low tracks east toward Lake Ontario by early Sunday evening. Some colder air will be locked into eastern and northern NY, but for most of our CWA it looks to break into the warm sector south of this low. This will again allow for mild temperatures with highs in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Late in the afternoon or evening Sunday, some of the CAMs are hinting at a convective line of showers along a front extending south of the primary surface low
this could bring brief gusty winds, and heavy downpours
also cannot rule out a rumble of thunder. Rainfall amounts from late tonight through Sunday night are expected to range from 0.50 to 1 inch over the area, which should not cause any hydro issues after a dry November.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
320 AM Update:

The steadier rain begins to taper off to lighter rain showers overnight on Sunday as the area of low pressure pulls away.
Winds will be shifting to more of a westerly direction, along with 850mb temperatures falling to around -5C by daybreak on Monday. This will set the stage for a weak lake response late Sunday night through Monday. These lake effect showers will mainly be in the form of rain, but snow may mix in at the higher elevations and across Oneida county. The coverage of showers will be highest across Central NY, with mainly dry (but mostly cloudy) conditions expected for most of Northeast PA. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the lower to mid 40s.

Some lingering lake effect rain and snow showers are possible Monday night into Tuesday, but with weak ridging moving in, these will be coming to an end by mid-day Tuesday. This relative lull in precipitation is expected to be rather short- lived before another shortwave pushes through late Tuesday/Tuesday night with some scattered snow showers possible.
After lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday night, highs in the mid 30s to near 40 are expected on Tuesday. Then mid 20s to lower 30s are expected for lows Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
320 AM Update:

The weather pattern remains unsettled during the long term period with a couple of shortwaves/clipper systems dropping down from Canada. That being said, the timing and placement of these weaker systems remains uncertain this far out and therefore continued to go with the National Blend of Models (NBM) for PoPs. Temperatures may be cold enough during this time period for the form of precipitation to be mainly snow (perhaps mixing with rain if timing is during the day), but at this point, these systems look to remain on the weaker side, and therefore significant precipitation accumulations looks unlikely. There will also be dry breaks between these systems, but the timing of these breaks also is uncertain this far out.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
650 AM Update

Variable conditions out there currently, with CIGs ranging from LIFR at BGM and AVP to MVFR elsewhere. There are also some VSBY restrictions in light fog, with current vsbys mainly 1 to 3 SM around the terminals.

Overall CIGs will remain steady for most of the morning hours, with gradual lifting by midday. CIGs remain widespread Fuel Alt to IFR through at least 17-18z. SYR and RME actually see CIGs fall to borderline IFR/LIFR after 16-18z this afternoon, while AVP lifts to VFR, and ELM, ITH and BGM lift to MVFR south of a warm frontal boundary. The front, along with lowering CIGs starts to slowly slide back south after 00-03z Sunday, with ITH potentially lowering to IFR/LIFR. ELM, AVP and BGM potentially fall back to MVFR Fuel Alt after 06z Sunday, and then IFR after about 09z Sunday morning. RME/SYR remain IFR to LIFR overnight into Sunday morning.

Light south-southwest winds this morning under 10 kts, turn more westerly late in the day. Light and variable winds continue this evening into tonight under 5 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday...IFR or lower restrictions likely due to rain and fog.

Monday through Tuesday...Possible restrictions due to rain and snow showers.

Wednesday...Mostly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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