Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ithaca, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
650 PM Update:

Main adjustment with this update was to remove mention of thunder until later this evening/closer to midnight. There are currently no thunderstorms near our area, with the nearest lightning strikes being detected across Western PA. This batch of showers and thunderstorms moves through our area late this evening and it is possible that enough elevated instability may be present to have a few embedded thunderstorms occur from that batch. Otherwise, only some minor tweaks were made to the forecast with this update and the previous discussion remains valid.

235 PM Update...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have developed in the Finger Lakes region along a warm front lifting north. These will mainly affect CNY and northward as the Southern Tier and Southward are still pretty stable under subsidence from a ridge overhead and lower dew points. Tonight, as a deepening low passes through the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence River Valley, better lift will spark off more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts may approach an inch with most of the region seeing closer to a quarter to half inch of rainfall.

Saturday morning, a cold front moves through, but recent trends have been a little slower with bringing the front into the area. With the potential for some breaks of sun in the clouds once the precipitation moves east, some instability will be able to develop. Storms that fire along the front may contain some stronger wind gusts as there is strong winds aloft that could mix down. With the low continuing to deepen as it moves into New England and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region, the pressure gradient tightens with winds increasing behind the front in the afternoon. Winds will be gusty with deeper mixing as cold air advection steepens the low level lapse rates. 850 mb winds top out around 40 mph so gusts should get into the 25 to 35 mph range. Light rain showers and drizzle wrap around the low in the afternoon and overnight.

Its getting late in the year to get snow but there could be a few high elevation snow flakes tonight as 850 mb temperatures fall to around -3C. Higher wet bulb temperatures and winds will keep all rain in wrap around precipitation at elevations below roughly 2000 feet.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
2 PM Update

Upper level low pressure will be centered near the Northeast Kingdom early Sunday morning, but will continue to push eastward and out into the Gulf of Maine by Sunday afternoon. Sunday morning will likely start off dreary, with light rain and drizzle across Central NY and into the Catskills. High pressure and ridging aloft will be building into the region Sunday afternoon with clearing skies from west to east. Still looking at a cool and breezy day with a tight pressure gradient between the exiting low and building high. Winds on Sunday, will be out of the NW at 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph at times.

High pressure will be overhead on Monday with a warm and dry day expected and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A this time, not thinking there will be any fire weather concerns, but this will be dependent on the amount of rainfall we see over the weekend. High pressure remains in control Monday night with just a few clouds around and light south winds and lows in the 40s for most locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
210 PM Update

Warm SW return flow over the area on Tuesday out ahead of an approaching cold front. There still remain a good deal of uncertainty on the exact timing of the front, and if the front arrives in the late afternoon hours around peak heating, then plenty of instability will be available for potential thunderstorms. SPC has all of Central NY and parts of NE PA in a Day 5 15% Severe outlook for this timeframe, but as mentioned, this will be dependent on the actual timing of the front.

By Wednesday, high pressure builds back into the region behind the front. This will keep the area dry Wednesday into Thursday night with seasonably mild temperatures. Beyond midweek, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, however the pattern looks like it will remain quite active. Most ensembles and deterministic models are showing troughing over the Northeast next Friday, so there is a greater potential for unsettled conditions as we end the work week and head into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through most of this evening, but by midnight, or shortly afterwards, steadier rain showers and lowering ceilings will begin to produce widespread MVFR restrictions, and possibly IFR ceilings by late tonight/early Saturday morning. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out tonight, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs.

The steadiest rain moves east Saturday morning, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible during the afternoon. Ceilings will gradually become MVFR and possibly even VFR (especially at KAVP) by the afternoon, but brief additional restrictions are possible during the afternoon from any steadier shower or thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday morning...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible along with a few scattered showers.

Sunday afternoon...Becoming mainly VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Potential for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.