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LMZ878 Expires:202312082230;;114101 Fzus63 Kmkx 081436 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 836 am cst Fri dec 8 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
southerly winds up to 20-30 knots will continue into the mid afternoon hours as low pressure around 29.2 inches gradually moves from the northern great plains into ontario. A secondary area of low pressure will develop over illinois tonight and lift northeastward across lake michigan on Saturday. Lighter but modest south winds tonight will shift to the west and become brisk by middle to late Saturday morning. A cold frontal passage Saturday night will shift the winds to brisk northwesterly that will last through Sunday.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-082230- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 836 am cst Fri dec 8 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of snow in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 081125 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 625 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Light rain will move into the area tonight through Saturday with temperatures holding around 50 for most locations. Colder air arrives Sunday and some light lake effect snow is possible through Sunday night. Dry and tranquil weather is expected next week.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Strong SW flow continues today in advance of deep western CONUS trough ejecting east. 900mb winds will remain around 35-40 kts today with slightly better mixing than yesterday per latest forecast soundings. Highs will climb into the low/mid 50s today despite increasing low level clouds, particularly by late afternoon. There will also be decent potential for some higher gusts of 25-30 kts particularly during the late morning as nocturnal LLJ mixes out somewhat. Dry conditions will prevail through 00Z this evening.

Initial southern vort max ejects from the Central Plains to the northern Lakes tonight with weak surface reflection passing just to our northwest. Broad/gentle isentropic upglide will generate a few showers/drizzle in the warm sector for our area tonight but QPF amounts will be very limited with the best chances not arriving until around and just after 12Z as the associated cold front approaches. Even then precip amounts and coverage will be limited given residual midlevel dry air and poor mid/upper level forcing locally. Only minor changes to inherited forecast with likely PoP's and a few hundredths QPF through 00Z Sat evening.

LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

As has been discussed, a deep, positively tilted trough then develops across the region with tightening baroclinic zone just to our SE Sat night into Sun. Our far SE counties will likely see some moderate precip Sat night as a weak surface reflection rides NE along the front. However, temps in that area at that time remain warm enough for just rain. CAA does increase on Sun but the front pushes east of our area by then. Our best chances for any snow remain with secondary shortwave rotating through the region late Sun with an added boost from relatively warm Lake MI. However, forecast soundings show inversion heights only around 5 kft with some dry air entrainment/stability issues given strong NW flow. Some lake effect snow showers are likely Sun into Sun night but accumulations will be very limited (less than an inch) given lackluster ingredients and surface temps in mid/upper 30s Sun afternoon. Flow backs quickly Sun night with any residual showers ending by early Mon morning. Any impacts to the Mon AM commute will likely be isolated and marginal.

Persistent ridging over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will maintain dry and tranquil conditions through much of next week. Temps initially near seasonal norms will slowly climb through the week.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Low level moisture advection in strong SW flow will support expanding stratus through the early morning. Surface obs and forecast soundings suggest ceilings will hold just above 3 kft through the day though some brief MVFR conditions may be possible.
Much better chance for MVFR arrives overnight as next low pressure system approaches. IFR is possible at KSBN late tonight but will hold just above for now. Light rain is expected along with increasing southerly winds toward the end of the period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043- 046.

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