St. Joseph, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Joseph, MI

June 22, 2024 8:39 AM CDT (13:39 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM
Moonrise 9:46 PM   Moonset 5:13 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Expires:202406221530;;453267 Fzus63 Kmkx 220759 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 259 am cdt Sat jun 22 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.

Synopsis -
light winds will transition to southerly and gusty across the southern two-thirds of the open waters and to easterly and gusty across the northern one-third this morning into this afternoon as low pressure of 29.6 inches develops in southern minnesota. This low will progress through northern lake michigan this evening into tonight, bringing widespread Thunderstorms along a cold front. Winds across the lake then shift northwesterly late tonight into Sunday morning as storms end. Winds will diminish but remain northwesterly through Sunday night, with high pressure of 30.0 inches building in Monday and producing light and variable winds.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-221530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 259 am cdt Sat jun 22 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .

Today - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Tonight - South winds to 30 kt veering to west 15 to 25 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

Sunday - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.

Monday - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft.

Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ800
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 221012 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 612 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Dangerous heat continues today and becoming breezy, but relief from the heat arrives for Sunday and Monday.

* Showers and scattered storms expected to move in tonight with some potential of wind gusts in excess of 50 mph late evening into early overnight hours.

* Depending on evolution of clouds and storms on Tuesday, heat indices may reach closer to 100 degrees again Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

No changes will be made to ongoing heat headlines, with one more day of peak afternoon heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range. Some potential of gusty thunderstorms tonight, particularly northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan. Heat may make brief return for Tuesday with additional thunderstorm chances for Tue-Wed.

Primarily dry weather is expected today, but will be monitoring a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving out of northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin this morning. This area of storms appears to be tied to some broad low level theta-e advection and perhaps earlier enhanced by some anvil seeding from upstream Corn Belt convection. Bulk of these showers and thunderstorms should bypass the local area to the northwest following progression of pocket of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPEs from southeast Wisconsin into west central Lower Michigan. Otherwise, still expecting today to be dry as weak mid level troughing swings northeast across central Lake Michigan with a robust +9 to +11 C 700 mb thermal ridge nosing into southern Lower Michigan. Weak cyclogenesis across WI today will allow for respectable strength to low level height gradient across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mixing up to 850-800 mb should allow for some peak afternoon gusts into the 20 to 30 mph range. This good mixing should result in dew points being held in check in the 60s for most areas similar to yesterday. The combination of high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and these modest dew points should result in another day of peak afternoon heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees.

For late this afternoon into this evening, a stronger upper level trough will race east out of the eastern Dakotas allowing for cold frontal progression into northwest IL/southeast WI by late evening.
Showers and storms should fill in along or just in advance of the front in pre-frontal moisture pooling zone early this evening. All indications still point to a sharp gradient in convective environment from western Great Lakes to the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with best instability axis remaining from northern IL into southeast WI. Dampening of the mid/upper level ridge later today will allow some modest deep layer shear values into the 25 to 30 knot range by this evening across far northern Indiana/southern Lower Michigan. However, convective line will have less downstream instability to work with across the local area late evening/early overnight, and given marginal shear profiles, should see a transition to outflow dominant line. SPC Day 1 severe probs have been increased across the area with a Slight Risk across the far northwest. Still feel that thunderstorm wind gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range will be of higher confidence with this convective line, with some lower confidence in isolated severe gusts. Best chance of near severe/severe wind gusts should be in a fairly narrow temporal window in the 04-07Z timeframe from northwest IN into perhaps far SW Lower Michigan. The convective line should gradually wane with time during the overnight hours tonight.

A few storms are possible into Sunday with cold frontal progression across the area, but effective sharper convergence zone resulting from outflow evolution may be focused just southeast of the area.
Less humid conditions will overspread the area behind this front Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Monday will be a transition day and appears to feature pleasant conditions with seasonable temperatures and low humidity levels. A progressive northern stream pattern will allow for a quick transition to a dampening of incoming upper level ridge Monday night/early Tuesday and a period of very strong return positive low/mid level theta-e advection late Monday night into Tuesday.
Forecast soundings still suggest capping may hold into midday Tuesday, but elevated moisture return could be enough for isolated-scattered storms moving in from the west late Monday night into Tuesday morning across the west. While current indications still suggest a potentially more active convective pattern Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday, forecast confidence in details remains low given lead forcing on Tuesday will be driven largely by upstream diabatic processes across the Upper Midwest, and the fact that stronger synoptic forcing lags across US/Canadian border later Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This pattern may support MCS activity, but mesoscale details including instability magnitudes and shear magnitudes with southward extent across local area will need to be resolved in later forecasts. Depending on how clouds/convection play out Tuesday, a brief return of heat indices from the mid 90s to around 100 is possible Tuesday afternoon.

Chances of storms may persist with cold frontal progression into Wednesday, but quieter and cooler weather spreads back into the area for Thursday. Temps should warm to above normal again for Fri-Sat, but another frontal passage is possible toward end of this forecast valid period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 608 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Predominantly VFR conditions at the TAF sites, becoming MVFR (with possible IFR) after 6z at KSBN, and after 8z at KFWA.
Otherwise, expect light southwest winds this morning to begin gusting to around 20-25 knots this afternoon and evening. A cold front will move ESE through the terminals tonight, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Have PROB30 groups to handle this for now, with IFR visibilities forecast around 6-10z at KSBN/8-12z at KFWA). Otherwise, only KSBN dropping to MVFR behind the front for now, with ceilings around 2500 ft expected.
If KFWA drops to MVFR behind the front it won't be until after 12z outside of heavier showers/storms.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ005>008-012>015-020-022-023-103-104-116-203-204-216.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ009- 017-018-024>027-032>034.
OH...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001- 002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177- 277.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 16 mi40 minSE 5.8G7.8 66°F 65°F29.9765°F
45168 32 mi40 minSW 1.9G1.9 74°F 71°F1 ft29.9867°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi40 minSSW 11G17 80°F 30.02
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi50 minS 2.9G5.1 76°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 36 mi40 minSSW 9.7G12 75°F 73°F1 ft30.0167°F
45199 42 mi70 minESE 5.8 63°F 64°F1 ft29.99
45174 44 mi40 minSE 7.8G9.7 71°F 68°F1 ft29.9169°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi52 minSSE 7G8.9 29.95
45187 45 mi30 minSE 5.8G7.8 64°F 62°F1 ft
45186 46 mi30 minESE 1.9G3.9 66°F 65°F1 ft
45029 47 mi30 minS 7.8G9.7 71°F 70°F1 ft70°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi40 minSSE 5.1G6 64°F 29.95
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi40 minSSW 20G23 85°F 72°F


Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBEH35 sm46 minSSW 0610 smClear82°F66°F58%29.99
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Wind History graph: BEH
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