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LMZ878 Expires:202312010430;;671261 Fzus63 Kmkx 302031 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 231 pm cst Thu nov 30 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
breezy west winds this afternoon shifting to modest northerly winds this evening with the passage of a cold front. Brisk east to northeast winds will then develop for Friday into Friday evening over central and southern sections of the lake, as low pressure over the southern great plains tracks into northern indiana Friday evening and onto the lower great lakes later at night. Light to modest east to northeast winds will then prevail for Saturday into Saturday night.

lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-010430- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 231 pm cst Thu nov 30 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..West to southwest winds 10 to 20 kt early, then veering northwest this evening to northeast late. Slight chance of rain this evening, then chance of rain overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..East winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Rain in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Rain in the evening, then chance of rain overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast. Chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt backing to northwest. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northwest 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 302337 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 637 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 635 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

A low pressure system moves in late tonight into Friday bringing cooler temperatures and widespread rain chances. The weekend will be seasonable with additional rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. Chances for rain showers persist into early to mid next week, with potential for snow to mix in at times.



SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

We stay relatively seasonable this evening with temperatures in the 40s and winds gusting up to 25 mph (primarily southeast of Fort Wayne). An area of low pressure advances northeast out of Oklahoma tonight as a cold front sweeps southeast across the upper Midwest. These two features bring rain chances late tonight and especially into Friday morning. Between 00Z to 06Z Friday, rain should remain light and scattered, before increasing in coverage and becoming more widespread between 09-18Z Friday as the low approaches. As the cold front arrives early Friday morning, it should turn stationary somewhere in or just slightly outside of the northwest portion of our CWA. The placement of the frontal boundary will determine highs for the day; southern Lower Michigan will stay in the lower 40s while north central Indiana will warm to near 50 degrees. QPF with this system should yield around half to three quarters of an inch by Saturday morning. With temperatures above freezing, any snow or mixed precipitation that falls within this system will stay north and west of our forecast area.

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Additional precipitation chances persist through the long term forecast range as a series of 500 mb shortwaves pass through the CWA. During the day Saturday, it will be dry. However, as the backside of the low moves through on Saturday afternoon, another wave of precipitation develops along a 500 mb shortwave that moves in from the southwest. We will see mostly rain late Saturday night into Sunday, as temperatures will be above freezing in the upper 30s, but some snowflakes could mix in at times. Some snow showers (perhaps lake effect in nature) will be possible as well Monday and Tuesday as a quick clipper system moves through. At this time, confidence is very low in the timing and location of any snowfall.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions at the TAF sites this evening will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR overnight into Friday as a low pressure system moves into the area. This system will bring widespread rain to both terminals late tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, some shower activity is possible later this evening as a weak wave ahead of the main system lifts northward. The more impactful conditions develop late tonight/early Fri AM and persist through much of the day as moisture transport increases and the low shifts into central IL. Models suggest a lull in precipitation as the dry slot shifts in aloft (particularly at KFWA), however it's possible we see patchy drizzle with the low levels still remaining fairly moist. Opted to keep in VCSH with a prob30 to account for the potential drizzle (and 2SM visibility and 400 ft ceilings).

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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