Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Breedsville, MI
November 1, 2024 10:01 PM EDT (02:01 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 8:18 AM Sunset 6:37 PM Moonrise 7:31 AM Moonset 5:26 PM |
LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 405 Pm Edt Fri Nov 1 2024
Through early evening - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering east toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night - South winds to 30 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday - South winds to 30 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday - Southwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
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Area Discussion for Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 020126 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 926 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very quiet weather from Tonight through Saturday Night
- Wet Period Sunday through Tuesday
- Trending drier and mild mid-late week next week
UPDATE
Issued at 926 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
No changes needed to the going fcst. Still some strato-cu clouds hanging around the eastern CWFA near MOP/AMN/LAN, as well as a few patches near the lakeshore. Overall trend though should be for all areas to clear out with the sfc high and subsidence in place.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
- Very quiet weather from Tonight through Saturday Night
High pressure will bring dry weather both tonight and on Saturday.
We may see a few showers continue into the early evening hours up along U.S. 10 as lake effect rain showers push in from the north, but these will be light and should fade after sunset. Lake effect stratocumulus clouds should trend towards the lakeshore and out over the lake this evening as winds become light in the lowest 5k feet. The overnight should be mainly clear with near normal lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Saturday will see some high clouds drifting in from the southwest leading to mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will again be close to normal in the 50s. Saturday night will see clouds thicken ahead our our next system. We expect to stay dry Saturday night despite some model blends bringing very light pops into the western CWA towards daybreak. Low level moisture will still be lacking at this point. Moisture will be confined to the middle and higher up portions of the profile, above 9,000 feet.
- Wet Period Sunday through Tuesday
We continue to expect quite a wet period for all of the area beginning through the course of Sunday, and continuing through Tuesday night.
A large amplitude long wave trough currently along the U.S. West Coast will slowly inch eastward toward the area through late Tuesday. We will see a deep flow from the SW aloft and S at the sfc becoming established by late Sunday, setting the area up for the rain. Deep moisture from the Gulf will be drawn north ahead of the trough. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to around 1.75" by Monday. This moisture, the large scale lift from the trough, and embedded short waves will all lead to periods of rain.
Severe weather does not look likely with this system, as instability is forecast to be quite limited through the period. Thunder will be possible at times with some slight instability. Another potential concern would be flood potential with this type of pattern. Right now, the best probability is that we see anywhere from an inch or so over our SE counties, to 3+ inches for our NW counties.
Coordination with the North Central River Forecast Center on ensemble contingency forecasts indicates that we would need another inch of rain or so for the NW areas (highest forecasted amounts) to see even river points come to forecast issuance stage. It would take the forecast amounts to be increased by 2-3 inches to approach flood stages. This has to do with the lack of rain over the last few weeks, and the drawn out nature of this rainfall over 48-72 hours.
We will continue to monitor this situation.
- Trending drier and mild mid-late week next week
The rain should taper off through Wednesday morning when it should completely end. We are now looking at another extended period of dry weather and mild temperatures.
The long wave trough responsible for the rain will get pushed out by another long wave trough coming into the Western U.S. coast by mid- week. The new trough looks to cut-off, with a low spinning over the Four Corners region, the the northern stream staying mainly north of the U.S.-Canadian border.
What this means for Lower Michigan is that we likely end up between the two branches of the upper jet. That will result in dry weather with high pressure in place. Temperatures will stay mild for November standards.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 625 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals through Saturday evening with lights winds below 10 kts. Skies will be mostly clear through most of the period. Fair wx cu will dissipate very quickly early this evening and nothing more than a bit of high cloud cover is expected tomorrow.
MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
We will let the Small Craft Advisory expire at 400pm. Waves are near or slightly below 4 feet now with a steady subsiding trend.
So, we do not expect 4 footers to persist much longer given the steadily decreasing wind. We are looking at a fairly calm period then from tonight into Saturday as high pressure slides through the area. Waves of 1 to 3 feet tonight will subside to a foot or less on Saturday.
It is fall however and this time of year the big lake does not stay calm for long. Our next system moves through the area early next week with another significant increase in wind. We will still likely stay headline free Saturday night, but Sunday south winds will push to Small Craft Advisory levels as winds increase to 15 to 30 knots. Sunday night we will likely flirt with gales with gales likely on Monday. Winds will be due to a tight pressure gradient between the high off to our east and a low moving our direction from the Plains.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 926 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very quiet weather from Tonight through Saturday Night
- Wet Period Sunday through Tuesday
- Trending drier and mild mid-late week next week
UPDATE
Issued at 926 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
No changes needed to the going fcst. Still some strato-cu clouds hanging around the eastern CWFA near MOP/AMN/LAN, as well as a few patches near the lakeshore. Overall trend though should be for all areas to clear out with the sfc high and subsidence in place.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
- Very quiet weather from Tonight through Saturday Night
High pressure will bring dry weather both tonight and on Saturday.
We may see a few showers continue into the early evening hours up along U.S. 10 as lake effect rain showers push in from the north, but these will be light and should fade after sunset. Lake effect stratocumulus clouds should trend towards the lakeshore and out over the lake this evening as winds become light in the lowest 5k feet. The overnight should be mainly clear with near normal lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Saturday will see some high clouds drifting in from the southwest leading to mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will again be close to normal in the 50s. Saturday night will see clouds thicken ahead our our next system. We expect to stay dry Saturday night despite some model blends bringing very light pops into the western CWA towards daybreak. Low level moisture will still be lacking at this point. Moisture will be confined to the middle and higher up portions of the profile, above 9,000 feet.
- Wet Period Sunday through Tuesday
We continue to expect quite a wet period for all of the area beginning through the course of Sunday, and continuing through Tuesday night.
A large amplitude long wave trough currently along the U.S. West Coast will slowly inch eastward toward the area through late Tuesday. We will see a deep flow from the SW aloft and S at the sfc becoming established by late Sunday, setting the area up for the rain. Deep moisture from the Gulf will be drawn north ahead of the trough. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to around 1.75" by Monday. This moisture, the large scale lift from the trough, and embedded short waves will all lead to periods of rain.
Severe weather does not look likely with this system, as instability is forecast to be quite limited through the period. Thunder will be possible at times with some slight instability. Another potential concern would be flood potential with this type of pattern. Right now, the best probability is that we see anywhere from an inch or so over our SE counties, to 3+ inches for our NW counties.
Coordination with the North Central River Forecast Center on ensemble contingency forecasts indicates that we would need another inch of rain or so for the NW areas (highest forecasted amounts) to see even river points come to forecast issuance stage. It would take the forecast amounts to be increased by 2-3 inches to approach flood stages. This has to do with the lack of rain over the last few weeks, and the drawn out nature of this rainfall over 48-72 hours.
We will continue to monitor this situation.
- Trending drier and mild mid-late week next week
The rain should taper off through Wednesday morning when it should completely end. We are now looking at another extended period of dry weather and mild temperatures.
The long wave trough responsible for the rain will get pushed out by another long wave trough coming into the Western U.S. coast by mid- week. The new trough looks to cut-off, with a low spinning over the Four Corners region, the the northern stream staying mainly north of the U.S.-Canadian border.
What this means for Lower Michigan is that we likely end up between the two branches of the upper jet. That will result in dry weather with high pressure in place. Temperatures will stay mild for November standards.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 625 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals through Saturday evening with lights winds below 10 kts. Skies will be mostly clear through most of the period. Fair wx cu will dissipate very quickly early this evening and nothing more than a bit of high cloud cover is expected tomorrow.
MARINE
Issued at 335 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
We will let the Small Craft Advisory expire at 400pm. Waves are near or slightly below 4 feet now with a steady subsiding trend.
So, we do not expect 4 footers to persist much longer given the steadily decreasing wind. We are looking at a fairly calm period then from tonight into Saturday as high pressure slides through the area. Waves of 1 to 3 feet tonight will subside to a foot or less on Saturday.
It is fall however and this time of year the big lake does not stay calm for long. Our next system moves through the area early next week with another significant increase in wind. We will still likely stay headline free Saturday night, but Sunday south winds will push to Small Craft Advisory levels as winds increase to 15 to 30 knots. Sunday night we will likely flirt with gales with gales likely on Monday. Winds will be due to a tight pressure gradient between the high off to our east and a low moving our direction from the Plains.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
45168 | 12 mi | 182 min | NW 7.8G | 48°F | 60°F | 3 ft | 30.35 | 36°F |
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 22 mi | 44 min | NW 6G | 47°F | 58°F | 30.29 | 35°F | |
45029 | 31 mi | 22 min | N 5.8G | 47°F | 60°F | 2 ft | 30.29 | 37°F |
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 32 mi | 62 min | ENE 1.9G | 45°F | 30.35 | |||
45026 - St. Joseph, MI | 42 mi | 32 min | NE 3.9G | 49°F | 60°F | 3 ft | 30.35 | 36°F |
Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KLWA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KLWA
Wind History Graph: LWA
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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