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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 405 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Through early evening..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots increasing to gales to 35 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots backing southwest toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 knots veering west late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots veering northeast 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots veering south late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 282011 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 311 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Short Term/Long Term/Marine

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Lake effect snow showers are moving further inland as flow goes westerly and also decreasing in intensity with LAPS soundings showing inversion heights between 5 and 6 kft. Inversion heights will continue to fall this evening as flat shortwave ridging develops ahead of next clipper. A warm advection pattern develops this evening and southwest flow over the lake contributes moisture for some light snow across the northern half of the forecast area between midnight and noon on Wednesday.

Model soundings show the DGZ lose saturation Wednesday morning so measurable precip should be ending at that time. The forecast for total snowfall remains in the 1 to 2 inch range with the highest amounts further north where the lake enhancement combines with mid level moisture/WAA. The shortwave trough shears out as the clipper low is absorbed into the larger upper low over Hudson Bay with zonal flow bringing dry weather for Wednesday night.


LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

We are looking at the long term portion of the forecast as generally having seasonable temperatures, and being unsettled without any major impact systems expected for the area. The cold air that is currently in place over the area will have lifted out of the region by the beginning of the period Thursday morning. The northern branch of the jet will migrate back north, and we will be in between the two branches of the jet.

We will see a couple of weaker waves of low pressure associated with the southern jet move by just to our south. The first one will affect the southern portion of the area Thursday night into Friday, and the second one will be late Saturday into Sunday. In both scenarios, the air on the northern fringe of the pcpn shield may be just marginally cold enough that some snow may mix in. Otherwise, the sufficiently cold enough air will be locked up north of the area with the northern branch of the jet.

We see the upper air pattern amplify a bit over the area, with long wave troughing dominating the pattern for Lower Michigan from Sunday through next Tuesday. The cold air remains north for most of this time frame. We will see multiple short waves rotate through during this time frame. This will keep mainly rain chances in for the area Sunday through Tuesday. The trough may dig enough by Tuesday and beyond, that the air will become a little colder, allowing for some better chances of some snow.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Along the lakeshore, the lake effect snow showers are showing signs of starting to taper off this afternoon. The visibilities are not as low as they were earlier at KMKG and KAZO. The snow showers and MVFR clouds are starting to spread inland a bit as the flow is starting to back some to the WNW. This will bring MVFR conditions to all of the sites through the next few hours. Then mid-late evening, the lake effect will go away and leave only some mid/high clouds for a few hours.

The next wave coming in from the NW will then spread more cloud cover in later tonight and continue to linger through Wednesday.
Snow showers are likely at the I-96 corridor terminals very late tonight and on Wednesday. Conditions will initially be VFR, but are likely to sink to MVFR. The I-94 corridor terminals will likely escape the snow showers from this system, but the MVFR clouds will still affect the area.

MARINE
Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

No changes to the SCA, which may need to be extended through Thursday if there is not a sufficient lull in the winds and waves Wednesday night.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.

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