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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1005 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers through about 2 am, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South winds to 30 knots veering southwest, then decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 090342 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1042 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

UPDATE
Issued at 1042 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Low pressure centered in Southwest Missouri this evening will move northeast and deepen tonight. By Saturday morning the low will be located over Lake Michigan. Rain is spreading northeast ahead of the surface low and associated upper shortwave trough. By 12Z we have chances for rain ranging from 30/40 percent in our eastern CWA to 80/90 percent over portions of Western Lower Michigan.
Moisture increases in depth tonight as the low and attendant cold front approach...but the moisture does not completely saturate the DGZ. Feel we will see rain, although it will be light and the precipitation may be drizzle at times. Aviation guidance does not show visibilities dropping below 5 miles over much of our area tonight and feel this is a result of the moisture not reaching the DGZ resulting in smaller drops. By morning rainfall amounts will mainly be in the trace to around a tenth of an inch range. Highest amounts will be in the northwest towards Big and Little Sable Points.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

- Rain Tonight Through Saturday Morning

Broken cloud cover continues along with mild temperatures due to southwesterly flow bringing in warm air and more moisture. The main source of lift initially will be the low level jet that moves in after midnight tonight along with warm air advection. The saturated layer won'd be that deep as moisture aloft does not increase until Saturday morning so only expecting some light showers. Coverage Saturday will be mainly scattered (30 to 60 percent) but areas west and north of Grand Rapids may see more widespread coverage (70 to 80 percent). As the front moves through during the late morning and early afternoon dry conditions return. Winds will also be breezy with gusts around 25 to 35 mph from the southwest.

Saturday evening there is a chance (20 to 30 percent)for some light rain and snow showers as some lingering positive vorticiy advection moves through the area. Not expecting any snow accumulations or impacts due to temperatures remaining above freezing across most of the area. Winds won't be as strong Saturday evening with gusts around 15 to 20 mph.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A secondary shortwave will pivot through the state late Saturday through Sunday morning resulting in invigorated precipitation chances across the area. As a cold front moves through Saturday night into early Sunday, 850mb temps will fall supporting increased instability over Lake Michigan. Northwest / north-northwest flow lake effect snow bands will persist during the daytime Sunday.
Northwest / north-northwest flow bands will have the greatest impact on areas along the immediate lakeshore and inland into Allegan, Van Buren, and Kalamazoo Counties. Inversion heights of around 5kft will limit snowfall amounts to about 1 inch or less.

The main trough axis lifts out of the region Monday morning resulting in a return of dry conditions. Temperatures will stay fairly consistent through next week with highs in the low to mid 30s and lows in the 20s. A weakening cold front will move through on Tuesday, but limited moisture should keep conditions dry for our area. As the main low to our north associated with this weak front pivots through northern Ontario, high pressure approaching from our west results in a strengthening pressure gradient over lower Michigan. Breezy northwest winds are expected Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure takes over Tuesday evening and dry weather will last through the end of the work week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 756 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Rain will spread in from the southwest tonight and continue into the day on Saturday. MVFR ceilings will become widespread by 05Z and lower further to IFR levels in most areas between 10Z and 18Z on Saturday. Visibilities will dip to MVFR levels at MKG with most other areas remaining VFR.

Winds will increase from the south tonight and southwest on Saturday. Winds on Saturday will be gusty from the southwest in the 15 to 30 knot range.

MARINE
Issued at 253 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Gusty southwest winds drop below Small Craft Advisory levels later this evening with waves slowly falling below later tonight. There will be a brief lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions overnight before southwesterly winds pick back up and waves build once more with waves and gusty winds lingering through Sunday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

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