Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Breedsville, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 313 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

- Several Chances of Showers/Storms Through Friday Night

Several chances for showers and storms exist over the next 72 hours.
The two best chances are later today into Thursday, and Thursday Night into Friday.

Today, a weak frontal boundary is forecast to stall across the upper- midwest. The arrival of a 700mb wave will be sufficient to force thunderstorm development late today/tonight in conjunction with this boundary. The best coverage is expected to be across northwestern portions of our forecast area that are closer to surface convergence and the mid-level wave. Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with steep lapse rates and effective shear of 25-30 knots, mainly across our northwestern forecast area. Hail and gusty winds are the concerns if any storms can organize.

Precipitation chances are notably higher, on the order of 70-90 percent, Thursday Night into Friday. Rain chances are due to a pair of mid-level shortwaves driving a surface low through the area. The best chance of thunder with this system comes Friday afternoon as a few hundred joules of MUCAPE build across the southeastern forecast area.

Surface and upper-level ridging then arrives for the weekend. This will keep conditions dry across West Michigan.

- Warming Through Late Week

Above normal temperatures are expected the next several days, with highs into the 70s today and some areas reaching the 80s Thursday.
For reference, normal highs this time of year are in the low sixties in Grand Rapids. Temperatures then cool down Friday into Saturday, albeit with temps still near to above normal, as northerly flow takes hold.

- Warm With Shower/Storm Chances Tuesday

Warm air advection resumes early next week with 850mb temps climbing into the mid teens Tuesday. This will bring plenty of warmth as highs climb back into the upper 70s or 80s.

The overall synoptic pattern shows that a mid-level wave will drive a cold front across the region. LREF members show an expansive warm sector developing across the region, including lower Michigan, with mean dewpoints in the lower 60s. With the ECMWF/GFS showing sufficient deep layer shear, storms could be stronger, though this outcome is uncertain. Cluster analysis shows a split in when the shortwave and surface front arrive, with the timing being key to whether stronger storms can occur. Tuesday could be an active day, with refinement of the forecast expected in the days to come.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 710 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Overall confidence in showers and storms is not high with largely dry conditions expected throughout the forecast. The main window for any shower or storm would be between 17Z to 00Z this afternoon and evening. Best chances however (greater than 30 percent) will be north of the TAF sites. This evening winds will be light and variable with areas of patchy fog possible.

MARINE
Issued at 313 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

No marine concerns over the next few days as weak gradient winds are expected across the area. A stable profile will limit any mixing down of winds aloft as well. Waves should remain two feet or less over the next 48 hours. The next period of increased winds over the lake is later Friday into Saturday as northerly flow increases behind a departing low. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible over the lake this afternoon, particularly north of Muskegon.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.