Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

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Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:55PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:46 AM EDT (08:46 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 5:28AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 407 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers and Thunderstorms this morning, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms late. Some Thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall through early afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201907171515;;769704 FZUS61 KCLE 170807 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...The remnant low of Barry 29.80 inches will move across Lake Erie today. Behind this low, a warm front will lift northeast across the lake on Thursday. High pressure 30.15 inches over the southeast United States will extend a ridge over the lower Lakes through the end of the week. A cold front will cross the lake on Sunday. A stronger high pressure 30.20 will build over the lake early next week. LEZ061-168-169-171515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 170556
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
156 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue off and on through
Wednesday, along with some heavier downpours as remnant
tropical moisture tracks across the area. Thereafter oppressive
summer heat and humidity will be upon the region Thursday
through the weekend with occasional showers and thunderstorms.

Near term through today
Area of widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms tied to
barry are pushing across the area early this morning. Currently,
showers and thunderstorms are maximized in coverage on northern edge
of the low level jet moisture transport just downstream of main mid
level shortwave and surface low which is the remnants of barry.

These forcing mechanisms along with axis of precipitable water
values up to 2.0 inches will slide across western and north
central new york into mid morning Wednesday, then another surge
of more concentrated showers and thunderstorms will slide
across later in the morning as shortwave axis crosses the area.

Through mid morning Wednesday, elevated instability based just off
the sfc stays mainly below 1000 j kg and effective shear stays
marginal for stronger storms, only 20-25 kts. Main concern will
continue to be heavy rain from the stronger storms given pwats so
high and the very high freezing levels in place (near 15kft on the
00z buf sounding). Should still see some motion to the storms as we
saw earlier today, but any location that saw heavier rain earlier
this afternoon (heaviest rain occurred over far NW ontario county)
and areas that are prone to poor drainage and or ponding could see
issues with any prolonged periods of showers and thunderstorms or if
those showers and thunderstorms train over areas repeatedly.

As occurred on Tuesday upstream, expect increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms late morning through the afternoon on
Wednesday (as daytime instability increases) just ahead of where
the shortwave trough will be at that time. At this point, best
estimate for that match up of greatest instability and stronger
forcing will be back across the finger lakes and into the
southern tier, though southern portions of the niagara frontier
may be in on this as well. Overall, right now there is not big
signal from short term, high res guidance such as hrrr, rap or
href that widespread rainfall will be significant overnight into
Wednesday morning. Therefore there are no plans to issue any
kind of flood watch or any sps at this time. Will continue to
keep mention of heavy rains in the grids and hazardous weather
outlook.

Concerning temperatures overnight, looks like we are done with the
more comfortable temperatures observed the last few nights. Readings
will go no lower than the upper 60s to lower 70s, warmest on the
lake plain. On Wednesday, clouds and the rain around will keep
temperatures quite a bit cooler than what we saw Tuesday afternoon
as highs only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Even when it it not
raining or stops raining, it will remain humid as dewpoints remain
around 70f.

Short term tonight through Friday night
Dangerously high apparent temperatures by Friday...

while our attention this period will shift to the significant
increase in heat and humidity... We will first have to deal with some
leftover tropical 'flavored' showers from the remnants of barry.

As we open this period Wednesday night... The mid level vestiges of
barry will be passing across pennsylvania. While the associated
swath of deep tropical moisture will have moved well to our
southeast by this time... There may be enough jet induced forcing to
support some leftover shower activity for sites east of the genesee
valley. Otherwise we can anticipate another muggy night with plenty
of cloud cover.

Thursday will then start an extended period of very warm and sultry
weather. As heights build in the wake of the exited tropical
remnants... H85 temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper
teens c. Given a fairly well mixed environment and the return to at
least partly sunny skies... This will easily support afternoon
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s f across the lower elevations
with some 90 degree readings sprinkled in for good measure in some
of the valleys. Dew points in the lower 70s will then allow heat
index values apparent temps to reach into the low to mid 90s across
the lake plains and valleys. This could prompt heat advisories...

which are issued when apparent temps reach at least 95 for a minimum
of two hours. Otherwise... The sultry conditions should be
accompanied by dry weather... With only low chc pops for afternoon
convection being in place across parts of the southern tier and
finger lakes region. Even in these areas though... Weak capping below
10kft and relatively dry air in the mid levels may be enough to
preclude any convection (thus the low pops).

As an impressive sub tropical ridge builds across the southern tier
of the country Thursday night and Friday... A 35 to 40kt jet
extending around the northern periphery of the h7 portion of the
ridge will advect even warmer and more humid air across the lower
great lakes. One can already see the potential that this airmass
will have by seeing all of the heat related flags that are in place
across the center of the country. H85 temps over our region are
forecast to climb to around 20c Thursday night and to 22c on Friday.

Its one thing to see this displayed by deterministic guidance... And
even more impressive to see it in a consensus ensemble forecast such
as the SREF or gfs. Herein lies the main concern for the forecast
package.

Temperatures Thursday night will only drop into the lower 70s for
the lower elevations... Then as the core of the oppressive airmass
advects across the lower great lakes... We can fully anticipate max
temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s for the majority of the
forecast area Friday afternoon. Readings will be several degrees
lower in the lake cooled air in the immediate buf suburbs... Across
the higher terrain and also in the thousand island region. This
heat... When combined with dew points in the mid 70s... Will support
stifling apparent temperatures as high as 106. Heat advisories are
expected for the entire region... With the risk for excessive heat
warnings for some of the counties bordering the south shore of lake
ontario.

In regards to precipitation during this particular twenty four hour
period... Guidance is suggesting that a convectively enhanced
shortwave MCS could make its way from the upper great lakes into our
region by Friday morning. While this system would likely be a much
weakened state by the time it would reach our area... It would give
parts of the region a chance for a little rain during the morning.

Another chance for showers and thunderstorms would be found over
the southern tier and finger lakes in the afternoon.

Any late Friday convection would die off during the evening hours.

Otherwise... Friday night will be miami-like with dew points in the
mid 70s holding temperatures up at oppressive levels.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Continued unhealthy heat and humidity for the weekend...

an impressive 592-595dm sub tropical ridge extending across the
southern half of the country will remain our dominant weather
feature as we open this forecast period. Anomalously high h85
temperatures of 20 to 22c will continue to pour across our region
around the 'top' of this hemispheric sized anticyclone... And this
will keep dangerously high heat and humidity in place throughout our
forecast area. MAX temps will be in the 90s for all but the lake
shadowed areas immediately downwind of lakes erie and ontario and
across some of the higher terrain... With heat indices apparent temps
likely exceeding 100 again for the counties lining the south shore
of lake ontario... Including the bulk of livingston co. This would
support continued heat advisories and possible excessive heat
warnings.

While it will still be quite warm and uncomfortable on Sunday... The
good news is that Saturday should be the last day of the potentially
dangerous heat. A cold front is forecast to drop south across our
region Saturday night and Sunday... So at this time... Our concern
will once again shift... This time from oppressive heat to the risk
for severe weather. This boundary will likely become the focus for a
an eastward propagating mcs. As has been discussed at length now..

The pattern developing is textbook for a tongue of steep mid level
lapse rates (eml plume) to work from the plains and upper great
lakes into our region. One can see the 'birth' of this elevated
instability by looking at this mornings (12z tues) classic inverted-
v soundings at albuquerque (kabq) and EL paso (kepz). Hysplit
trajectory forecasts advect the mid and upper portions of this
unstable airmass into our region for the weekend. This can also be
seen in bufkit sounding profiles and plan view h500-700 lapse rate
forecasts that suggest fairly steep 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.5 deg c km to be present across our forecast area. Why is this
significant? The eml, in combination with the aforementioned weak
frontal boundary hanging around our area, and steep mid-level lapse
rates, will provide the potential for strong to severe convection.

Don't forget there also could be the potential for an mcs. In fact,
a study done by ekster and banacos found that on severe weather days
when an EML was present over 80 percent of those days contained
numerous high end severe weather reports. The target for this severe
weather potential is now Saturday night or early Sunday morning.

As the front slowly pushes across and to our south of our region
Sunday afternoon and night... It is projected to stall over
pennsylvania. This would leave much of our forecast area prone to
additional showers and thunderstorms... Especially the southern tier.

A reinforcing secondary cool front is then forecast to push through
the region late Monday. This should finally usher cooler and
drier air into the region for Tuesday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
An area of showers with some isolated embedded thunder will push
across the area through about 09z. The activity should then become
less widespread through mid morning Wednesday before coverage
starts to ramp up again, especially along the southern tier into
the finger lakes. Conditions remaining mainlyVFR overnight.

Except ceilings to fall to MVFR by daybreak Wednesday and
continue to fall to ifr across the higher terrain including kjhw
and kart. Should see CIGS also fall to higher ifr or lower MVFR
in the afternoon at iag, buf and roc as passage of sfc
trough lake breeze off ontario shifts winds to northerly in the
afternoon. Visibility restrictions to at least MVFR will likely
occur with most of the showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night... Ifr MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening at jhw.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday through Sunday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
A warm southwesterly flow will be present across the lakes through
the end of the week. While winds may occasionally reach 15 knots,
especially on Friday, waves will likely remain around 2 feet or less
on the waters.

There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times
through the rest of the week and for the weekend. Any thunderstorm
may produce locally higher winds and waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jla thomas tma
near term... Jla tma
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hsk jla tma
marine... Hsk jla thomas tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi53 min SSW 6 G 12
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi47 min S 7 G 14 74°F 1012.6 hPa (-2.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi107 min SSW 9.7 G 12 72°F 70°F2 ft1012.3 hPa (-1.6)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi53 min 71°F 1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi54 minSSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F68°F84%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S9S9SW9W10SW9W5W9SW11
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1 day agoS3SW4SW3SW6SW5SW6W8NW8NW8NW6NW9NW7W6W4W5SW3SE4SE3CalmCalmS10SW6S8S10
2 days agoW6W5--NW5NW53NW8W5W8W7W7W8W6W7W8SW9SW6SW6S6SW5SW6SW6SW4SW3

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.