Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:36PM Friday October 18, 2019 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:43PMMoonset 11:12AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 403 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201910190245;;907633 FZUS61 KCLE 182003 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 403 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.20 inches will drift east from the Great Lakes Region to New England through Saturday. A ridge will extend westward to the eastern Great Lakes through Monday. Low pressure moving out of the Plains on Monday will deepen to 29.10 inches as it reach Lake Superior Monday night. This system will lift a warm front moving northeastward over Lake Erie on Monday followed by an eastward-moving cold front on Tuesday. LEZ061-165>169-190245-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 182045
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
445 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will bring dry and chilly conditions tonight, with
frost in many areas inland from the immediate lakeshores. Fair
weather and steadily warming temperatures will then follow for
Saturday through Monday as the high slides off the east coast.

Near term through Saturday
The northwesterly flow will start to decrease as we go into the
evening with surface high pressure building eastward from lower
michigan. This will start to cut off our over-lake fetch and
thus our predominant source of boundary layer moisture. As this
occurs with subsidence moving into the region, this will allow
for the dissipation of stratocumulus clouds through the evening.

A generally clear overnight looks to be in store across the area
with high pressure in control. This will yield for good
radiational cooling with the drop in wind speeds and breakup of
clouds, so temperatures will take a bounce down toward freezing
in many spots overnight. A frost advisory was in effect for this
through morning.

With generally sunny skies and the beginnings of southerly flow
on Saturday, temperatures will bound upward. This will allow for
temperatures to again challenge 60f in the lower spots of the
cwa.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Saturday night, an upper level shortwave will pass across the
upper great lakes, while a second shortwave and associated
surface low pressure move into the mid atlantic states. This
will leave our area sandwiched in between these two systems, and
thus will continue with a dry forecast through the overnight.

It will not be as cool as the prior night with lows ranging from
the lower to mid 30s across the north country, to the upper 30s
and lower 40s elsewhere.

Sunday, the main energy associated with the shortwave moving across
southeastern canada will remain to our north, while the surface low
over the mid atlantic moves northeast off the coast of the delmarva.

Easterly to southeasterly surface flow off the atlantic on the
northern side of this surface low will advect some low level
moisture in off the atlantic across the eastern half of nys. This
enhanced moisture combined with a shallow weakening upper trough
crossing the region may provide enough forcing to produce some
showers mainly east and southeast of our area. However, a few of
these showers may be able to make it as far west as the borders of
our eastern most counties, with the best chance for any precip
occurring during the first half of the day. High temperatures will
be in the 60s south of lake ontario, with mid and upper 50s reserved
for areas east of lake ontario.

An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will build across the
region for Sunday night and Monday, bringing dry and comfortable
weather during this period. Following low temperatures Sunday night
that will be similar to Saturday night, strong southeasterly flow
will develop out ahead a cold front off to the west that will advect
even warmer air in across western and north central ny on Monday.

This should yield highs in the mid and upper 60s for most, with a
shot at 70 in the typically favored downsloping areas across western
ny.

Upper level ridge axis and surface high pressure will shift east
over new england Monday night. This will make way for the next
strong cold front draped from the upper great lakes southward across
the lower ohio valley to approach the region. Have slowed down the
eastward progression of the front just a bit more. This will keep
much of the area dry through the first half of Monday night.

Moisture will then continue to increase with showers becoming likely
west of the genesee valley by late Monday night, with any moderate
to heavier rain remaining to the west through this timeframe.

Increasing cloud cover and continued southerly flow ahead of the
boundary will keep lows much warmer, with mainly 50s south of lake
ontario, and 40s east of lake ontario due to the later onset of
thicker cloud cover.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
A mature, nearly vertically stacked low will move from near lake
superior into northwest ontario province Tuesday, with an associated
cold front moving slowly east across the eastern great lakes. The
gfs is on the fast side of the guidance envelope and appears too
fast in relation to the ECMWF gem with the cold front. Even with the
expected slower timing, widespread rain will overspread the area
from west to east Tuesday. By the time this system reaches the great
lakes it will be occluded and in a weakening phase. A secondary wave
may develop along the advancing cold front and bring heavier
rainfall to the mid atlantic and new england later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but this feature will likely miss our area. Given this
expectation, rainfall amounts should stay under 1 inch with little
hydrologic impact from rainfall in our region.

The bulk of the rain will taper off from west to east Tuesday night
with the passage of the cold front. A broad mid level trough and
wrap around moisture may produce a few more scattered showers
Tuesday night. The airmass will grow cold enough to support lake
effect rain showers Tuesday night and Wednesday off both lakes erie
and ontario. At this early juncture, boundary layer flow appears to
be SW or wsw, which will direct the lake effect showers off lake
erie into the buffalo area, and lake ontario showers into the
northern tug hill and jefferson county.

The GFS and gem both show another weak trough moving through the
eastern great lakes Thursday, which would support additional lake
effect rain showers northeast of the lakes. Meanwhile the ecmwf
brings high pressure a little farther north from the ohio valley to
the mid atlantic, keeping our region dry. Given the model
uncertainty, for now kept low chance pops northeast of the lakes.

By Friday another complex trough will be moving through the mid
section of the nation. Medium range models begin to diverge with
respect to how and when this will phase with additional southern
stream energy. Regardless, the more active portion of this system
will stay to our south and west through most of Friday, with just a
chance of a few showers here.

Temperatures will not stray too far from average next week.

Wednesday looks to be the coolest day with highs only in the lower
50s at lower elevations and upper 40s higher terrain. Some modest
warming is then expected late in the week as southerly flow develops
ahead of the next system.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
MVFR clouds have mainly scattered out west of kroc with this
clearing trend expected to progress eastward through this
evening. High pressure will build across the region tonight and
provideVFR flight conditions for most of the are tonight and
Saturday. The only potential issue is some valley fog which will
develop tonight and possibly impact kjhw between 09z and 12z
tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday... Rain with areas of MVFR.

Wednesday... Rain with areas of MVFR.

Marine
High pressure will build eastward across the lower great lakes
tonight. As a result the pressure gradient across our region
will become progressively weaker... Which in turn will allow
winds and waves to diminish. The last of the small craft
headlines was allowed to expire.

Looking further ahead to the weekend... The aforementioned high
will slowly drift east into new england on Saturday... Then off
the atlantic coastline on Sunday... And in doing so will bring
a period of fair weather and lighter winds to the lower great
lakes.

Hydrology
2-3 inches of rain fell in the black river basin between late
Wednesday and Thursday and this has resulted in high levels. It
will remain below flood stage, but forecast points are expected
to reach action stage. Boonville crested earlier today and will
begin to slowly fall tonight. Farther downstream, watertown is
expected to reach action stage late Saturday, and should crest
below flood stage Sunday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Frost advisory from midnight tonight to 9 am edt Saturday for
nyz001>006-010-011-013-014-019-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fries
near term... Apffel fries
short term... Jm
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel fries
marine... Fries
hydrology... Apffel jjr hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi49 min WSW 2.9 G 7
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi37 min WSW 8 G 9.9 51°F 1017 hPa (-0.4)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi97 min WSW 9.7 G 14 51°F 59°F1 ft1016.7 hPa (-0.6)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi55 min 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi44 minSSW 510.00 miFair44°F37°F76%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
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NW10NW10NW10NW8W7W7W7SW6SW5SW5
1 day agoSW13
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2 days agoCalmCalmNE4CalmS16
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SW7SW9W9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.