Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

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Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 8:15PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 12:16 PM EDT (16:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 948 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
This afternoon..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201908202015;;517118 FZUS61 KCLE 201348 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 948 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.10 inches centered across western New York will weaken today. A warm front will lift north as low pressure 29.80 inches moves east across the Great Lakes tonight into Wednesday. The cold front will move southeast across the lake Wednesday. High pressure 30.20 inches will build southeast across the Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday. LEZ061-164>169-202015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 201515
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1115 am edt Tue aug 20 2019

Synopsis
It will be a warm day across the region today... As high pressure
will support afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Conditions will then gradually deteriorate later tonight and
particularly on Wednesday... As a pattern changing cold front will
encourage numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms on
Wednesday will approach severe limits with strong winds and local
rainfall amounts of more than an inch. A prolonged stretch of
beautiful weather including cooler and less humid conditions will
then set in from Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

Near term through tonight
High pressure centered over pennsylvania late this morning will keep
sun filled skies in place for our region through the afternoon. The
only area to watch will be across the southern tier... And more
specifically near the pa border... Where a late day shower or isolated
thunderstorm could develop. Otherwise it will be a warm and moderately
humid afternoon with steady warm advection supporting MAX temps in the
low to mid 80s.

As we push through tonight... We will have to watch the remnants of a
convectively enhanced shortwave that will be crossing ohio. As of late
this morning... This feature was helping to generate widespread severe
weather across illinois. The area most likely to be impacted by this
mid level disturbance will be across the southern tier... Then as we
move through the morning hours of Wednesday... The finger lakes region.

The airmass in advance of this feature will be relatively unstable with
plenty of elevated CAPE (avg 500 j kg) to tap into. Will gradually
increase pops across the region tonight... With slgt chc pops being
found in most areas and likely to cat pops emerging across the southern
tier... Or at least chautauqua county. While the storms will likely
produced locally heavy rain (pwat values approaching 2") and frequent
lightning... Am not anticipating severe weather. That will have to wait
for the second round of storms associated with a strong cold front late
Wednesday.

Otherwise it will be warm and muggy tonight. Mins will range from the
lower 70s across the lake plains to the mid 60s across the southern
tier and the lower 60s in lewis county.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
A significant pattern change will bring a much cooler, fall-like
airmass across the lower great lakes late this week. Zonal upper
level flow in place to start this week will be replaced by strong
troughing across much of the great lakes Thursday into Friday. The
change will be accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms on
Wednesday out ahead of primary cold front that swings through
Wednesday evening. At the least, should see scattered storms on
Wednesday with gusty winds and heavy downpours as a more humid
airmass streams in ahead of the cold front.

Starting the day on Wednesday, a leading shortwave, likely enhanced
by upstream convection just starting to develop from the central
plains to the middle mississippi river valley, will be tracking into
western pennsylvania and maybe as far north as southern tier during
the morning. If anything, recent model trends show this wave staying
mainly to our south, so will keep that going theme in our forecast
with only some small pops across the southern tier early in the day.

Since the wave will only graze our area, or so it appears at this
time, subsidence behind the wave and or lingering cloud cover
probably will not be significant enough to wipe out convection
chances late morning onward as daytime heating boosts mlcapes to
1500-2500j kg.

Though effective shear of 20-25 kts initially is on the weaker side
for organized convection, arrival of very strong upper jet over 110
kts should ramp up effective shear toward 40 kts by mid to late
aftn. There is also hints of additional convective shortwaves or an
mcv along with a pre frontal sfc trough moving into western ny late
in the day just ahead of main cold front. All in all, overall theme
of forecast remains the same, but is now supplemented by a marginal
to slight risk of severe storms per latest SPC day 2 outlook. The
bump up in risk from previous day3 (general thunder) to new day 2
looks very reasonable. Have kept mention of heavy rain in grids
(with pwats rising toward 1.5 inches) and added gusty winds as well.

Strongest storms could also produce hail, though wbzero heights over
11kft in warm, moist airmass should limit that potential.

Slightly slower cold frontal passage compared to previous model
runs, so kept mention of some thunder in for Wednesday evening. By
late evening and overnight, threat of thunder should end and will
just be left with diminishing shower chances. Main chances for
showers late Wednesday night into Thursday will occur to east of
lake ontario closer to edge of broad upper level troughing and where
could be some embedded shortwaves working through and where wnw
winds provide additional upslope lifting. There is even a small
chance of seeing some lingering showers toward western ny, mainly in
the morning. Chances too low ATTM to put some pops in the forecast.

If some showers do occur, would be mainly in the morning. Otherwise,
strong low-level inversion around 5kft along with daytime heating of
the cooler airmass aloft and moisture below the inversion should
result in plenty of stratocu clouds and a partly to mostly cloudy
sky cover late morning into the afternoon. After a couple days with
high temps reaching the low to mid 80s through Wednesday along with
humid conditions, high temps on Thursday will only reach the low to
mid 70s. Should be pretty quick transition to less humid conditions
on Thursday with dewpoints dropping into the lower 50s by Thursday
afternoon. Will be breezy on Thursday especially closer to the lake
ontario shore.

Real taste of fall occurs Thursday night through Friday night as
overnight mins will range from the mid 50s near the lakes to the 40s
in the cooler southern tier valleys and the typical cooler spots to
east of lake ontario in jefferson and lewis counties.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Good model consensus that general ridging will be found over the
region through this period. The resulting fair dry weather will be
accompanied by subtle day to day warming, so that near to below
normal temperatures at the start of the period will climb above
normal by the start of the new work week.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure moving through the region will support wide openVFR
conditions this afternoon. The only area of concern wil be near the
pennsylvania border where a late day thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

WhileVFR weather will remain in place for most areas tonight... A mid
level disturbance will likely produce thunderstorms across the southern
tier after 06z.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR with areas of MVFR ifr in thunderstorms. Some storms
may be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Thursday through Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
High pressure will continue light winds and waves on the lakes today
and tonight.

A southerly flow will increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front with
waves building to 2-3 feet on lake erie. A cold front will swing
across the lower lakes Wednesday evening and early overnight... With
waves and winds increasing within the cold air advection
environment.

Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet Wednesday night and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario could bring waves 5 feet or
greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft
advisories may be needed later this week for these higher winds and
waves on lake ontario.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes Wednesday
evening. Strengthening northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce the potential for significant shoreline erosion and flooding
Wednesday night into Thursday evening. A lakeshore flood watch
continues from niagara county to oswego county.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
evening for nyz004>006.

Lakeshore flood watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for nyz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Jla
long term... Jla rsh
aviation... Rsh
marine... Thomas
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi46 min SSW 6 G 8.9
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi76 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 81°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.9)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi76 min S 3.9 G 3.9 75°F 75°F1 ft1019 hPa (+0.1)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi46 min 82°F 1019 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi83 minSSE 510.00 miFair82°F62°F51%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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W10--W11SW10W7SW5CalmS5S3--------SE3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmSE3SE5SW5
1 day agoSW5NW11NW8W6W7W8S6SW7S6NE3S11S15
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SW7SW8SW4SW5SW5S4CalmCalmS7--SE3SW8N5E7----SW9SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.