Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ripley, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the eastern Great Lakes today before drifting east across New England tonight.
Associated subsidence and dry air will allow a continuation of dry weather and mostly sunny skies, with just some diurnal cumulus and thin/high cirrus at times today. Warm advection and airmass modification will bring a notable warming trend this afternoon after a seasonably cool start, with highs well into the 60s in most areas and 50s across the North Country. Weak synoptic scale flow and strong differential heating will allow solenoidal lake breeze circulations to develop this afternoon, keeping areas within a few miles of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario much cooler.

Tonight, warm advection will increase as the surface high drifts east across New England. A weak warm frontal segment will move from the upper Great Lakes into southern Ontario by late tonight. Isentropic upglide and moisture transport ahead of the warm front will bring an increase in clouds, and possibly a few sprinkles or brief, light showers to areas near the Canadian border by late tonight. Temperatures will not be quite as cool as recent nights, especially across Western NY.

Thursday, the weak warm front will move off into Quebec and northern New England. Any sprinkles or brief light showers east of Lake Ontario will largely end by midday as isentropic upglide and moisture transport move northeast of the region.
Otherwise, expect partly to mostly sunny skies for the rest of the area. Temperatures will continue to warm to well above average for late April, with highs well into the 70s in most areas, and 60s North Country.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly dry conditions will continue Thursday night as surface high pressure drifts off the New England coast, with clouds increasing from west to east ahead of the next system.

Low pressure will organize over the mid section of the nation Friday, with the surface low reaching the central Great Lakes late Friday, then passing over or just north of the eastern Great Lakes Friday night before exiting down the Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday. Increasing moisture transport and isentropic upglide ahead of the trough will bring a chance of a few showers as early as Friday morning, with rain becoming more likely across Western NY later Friday afternoon or evening as better forcing and moisture arrive. Friday will still be quite warm with highs in the 70s away from the immediate lakeshores.

The most widespread rain will likely fall Friday night as the cold front moves east across the eastern Great Lakes and the best DPVA/height falls ahead of the mid level trough spread into the region. There will be enough instability to support at least a slight chance of some embedded thunder as well. Expect a few bands of moderate to heavy showers Friday night with locally heavy rainfall possible.

Rain will taper off from west to east late Friday night and Saturday with the passage of the surface cold front. A few light showers may linger into Saturday afternoon, mainly across the North Country in closer proximity to the mid level trough axis.
Saturday will be much cooler with highs back into the 50s in most areas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday, providing a dry back half of the weekend with plenty of sunshine Sunday. The surface high will remain parked along or just off the eastern seaboard Monday, providing a continuation of dry weather. Southerly return flow around the departing high will support another robust warm-up early next week, with temperatures surging to well above average.

Rain chances will gradually increase from west to east later Tuesday as a trough approaches from the west, but the better chance of rain and thunderstorms will likely hold off until Tuesday night or Wednesday as another cold front crosses the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail today as a ridge of high pressure drifts slowly east across the region. Expect nothing more than some diurnal cumulus with VFR bases today along with some high/thin cirrus at times. Tonight, a weak warm front will move from the upper Great Lakes to southern Ontario. Mid level clouds will increase ahead of this feature, and there may be a few sprinkles or brief, light showers for areas near the Canadian border. VFR will continue to prevail overnight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later in the afternoon. Slight chance of a few thunderstorms.

Saturday.. MVFR/IFR early with a chance of showers, improving to VFR later in the day.

Sunday...VFR.

MARINE
High pressure will drift from the eastern Great Lakes today east to New England tonight, with relatively light winds today through Thursday. The light synoptic scale flow will allow local lake breezes to develop this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon with onshore winds each afternoon.

Low pressure will then move into the central Great Lakes Friday afternoon before moving over or just north of the lower Great Lakes Friday night through early Saturday. East winds will increase Friday on Lake Ontario ahead of this system with choppy conditions developing. Small Craft Advisory conditions are more likely later Friday night and Saturday behind the cold front, especially on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.