Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 5:19PM Sunday January 19, 2020 10:55 AM EST (15:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:42AMMoonset 1:06PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 1025 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
This afternoon..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. Freezing spray. Snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north. Freezing spray in the evening. Snow showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers late in the evening. A slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.
LEZ061 Expires:202001192130;;194517 FZUS61 KCLE 191525 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1025 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 29.40 inch low centered over the Bay of Fundy late this morning will deepen to near 29.10 inches as it moves to near Newfoundland by the end of today. A secondary cold front trailing the low will sweep south across the lake this afternoon and early evening. A high pressure ridge averaging 30.70 inches will build east across the lake later today through Thursday. LEZ061-165>169-192130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 191524 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1024 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A storm system to our north will move into New England today. This will result in a period of accumulating lake snows with the most significant additional accumulations focused across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Elsewhere, light to moderate snow accumulations are expected southeast of Lake Ontario. Light lake effect snow showers may persist Monday through Tuesday southeast of the lakes. This will be followed by dry and warmer weather later this week as high pressure builds into the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Lake snows will continue to focus across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie as the primary low level flow remains westerly through this morning. Cold air advection will send 850 mb temperatures to near -15C resulting in ample over-lake instability. Plenty of moisture available in a gradually increasing convective boundary layer with inversion heights nearing 10k feet. Fairly well aligned omega within favorable dendritic snow growth zone should support a period of decent snowfall rates. There should be a period of 1 to as much as 2 inches an hour generating new daytime snowfall of 5 to 8 inches across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie from late morning through the afternoon.

Meanwhile over Lake Ontario, most of the lake effect snow has consolidated into an east/west oriented band along the south shore extending into far southern Oswego County. High resolution model guidance shows this band moving south and onshore along much of the south shore through late morning and midday. This may drop a quick few inches of accumulation from Orleans County eastward to far southern Oswego County, including portions of the Rochester area. Expect a temporary lull this afternoon following the main band moving inland and away from the lake, weakening quickly as it does so. Later this afternoon and tonight expect multiple bands to take shape on northwest flow from the Rochester area eastward to Oswego County.

Meanwhile east of Lake Ontario, veering boundary layer flow has taken most of the lake enhanced upslope snow away from the Tug Hill. In fact, most of the area is dry now as of mid morning. Another area of wrap around moisture will move in this afternoon and produce some light upslope snow, but any additional accumulations will be limited to an inch or so. With this in mind, the Winter Storm Warning has been dropped for Jefferson and Lewis counties.

Gusty winds will continue today, mainly during the morning, with areas closest to the lakeshores experiencing the strongest gusts to near 40 mph, with 30 to 35 mph elsewhere. This will result in blowing and drifting snow where snow is falling.

The boundary layer flow will veer to northwest later this afternoon and tonight as a secondary trough drops through. This should support fairly widespread snow shower activity. More organized lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will focus southeast of the lake from Rochester to western Oswego County. This area may see 2-4 inches of additional accumulation in the most persistent bands. Off Lake Erie, lake effect snow will continue to focus across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge. Additional accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible in the most persistent snows. Outside of the main lake effect areas, the trough may produce an inch or so accumulation. All of this will begin to diminish in intensity and areal coverage after midnight as deeper moisture departs.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Monday weak northwest flow lake effect will continue. there will be little left in terms of deep moisture or synoptic support, and inversion heights will lower steadily. This should only support light, disorganized lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes with minor accumulations. Another weak trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday night through early Tuesday. This may support a continuation of light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, but overall marginal moisture and shallow inversion heights should keep this light with minor, spotty accumulations.

Temperatures will reach their coldest Monday and Monday night. Highs will be in the lower 20s in Western NY and teens east of Lake Ontario Monday. Lows Monday night will be in the teens across Western NY, and below zero east of Lake Ontario with less marine influence.

An area of high pressure will track from the mid Mississippi on Tuesday morning to the eastern portion of the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. As the area of high pressure tracks east, closer to the region, increased warm air advection starting Tuesday will continue through Wednesday morning. Warm air advection will increase 850H temps from around -12C on Tuesday morning to -7C over WNY and around -10C east of Lake Ontario by Tuesday evening. With temps aloft warming, any remaining lake response will continue to diminish, and just a chance of snow showers will be possible Tuesday evening northeast of Lake Ontario as winds shift to the west- southwest. Snow showers should be mostly done with by the late evening off of Lake Ontario, with some residual cloud cover remaining from a weak lake response.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s south of Lake Ontario and in the low to mid 20s east of Lake Ontario, with a few mid teen reading possible across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. Lows Tuesday night won't drop much with increased warm air advection, and will be in the upper teens to low 20s south of Lake Ontario and in the teens across the North Country.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The second half of the workweek will much much quieter than the first half. The deep trough over the Great Lakes and New England will quickly depart Wednesday as strong height rises spread east across the U.S., and surface high pressure builds to the east coast. This will support a return to dry weather Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will warm rapidly as the cold pool aloft exits, replaced by 850MB temperatures warming above 0 C. This will support highs back in the lower 40s by Thursday and Friday across lower elevations.

The forecast becomes more uncertain again later Friday and especially Saturday. The overall upper air pattern across North America will remain quite warm in the mid latitudes, however a cutoff low will move east across the eastern third of the nation. This upper level low may have just enough cold air associated with it to bring winter weather back into play by Saturday.

Some previous model runs of the GFS and ECMWF were more aggressive in bringing warm air into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday, resulting in a rain event. The 12Z GFS/GEM, and especially the 12Z ECMWF are trending colder again for Saturday and Sunday, potentially setting the stage for accumulating wet snow across our region as the upper level low moves slowly from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday, eventually yielding to secondary coastal cyclogenesis later Sunday off the New England coast. This system is slow moving and should have a good deal of moisture associated with it, so it bears watching. For now introduced rain and snow into the forecast for next Saturday given temperature uncertainty.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Fairly widespread snow showers and embedded areas of heavier lake effect snow will continue today through this evening. This will bring areas of IFR VSBY to all the TAF sites with the exception of KART. Winds will become more northwest this afternoon and tonight, focusing lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes where periods of IFR VSBY will continue. This will mainly impact KJHW and KROC. The lake effect snow showers will decrease in coverage and intensity late tonight, with VSBY conditions improving in most areas. Widespread MVFR CIGS will continue today, and through tonight in lake effect areas.

Gusty winds will result in some blowing snow where snow showers are more persistent, especially this morning.

Outlook .

Monday . MVFR with IFR vsbys in lake snow across the Southern Tier and in a corridor between KROC and KSYR. Monday night and Tuesday . Mainly VFR, but MVFR in leftover lake snow showers southeast of both lakes. Wednesday and Thursday . Generally VFR.

MARINE. Sustained gale force winds have ended on Lakes Erie and Ontario, and the Gale Warnings have been allowed to expire. West winds will become northwest today following a trough passage, with wind speeds then slowly diminishing through the afternoon and tonight. Small craft advisory conditions will continue through tonight before the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Strong winds this morning will bring another round of lakeshore flooding to Lake Ontario. The combination of high lake levels, strong onshore westerly winds, and high waves will produce some lakeshore flooding in bays and inlets at the east end of the lake impacting lakeshore areas of Jefferson and Oswego counties.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006-007. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ002>005. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ012-019- 020-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030-045. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/RSH/Thomas/TMA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/RSH/Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock/SW LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA/RSH/TMA MARINE . Hitchcock/RSH/Thomas/TMA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NREP1 16 mi86 min W 22 G 34 26°F
EREP1 25 mi56 min W 26 G 32
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi56 min W 29 G 34 28°F 1010.3 hPa (+3.9)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi62 min 28°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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N7
N5
G11
NE5
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G9
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W21
G26
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G28
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N12
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N11
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G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi2 hrsWSW 18 G 300.25 miHeavy Snow and Breezy27°F21°F81%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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--SW27
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1 day agoNE8NE7NE7E4N4NE4N4E3E6E5E3E6E5E4E11E6NE5E10SE3S10
G15
SE12S83SE17
G24
2 days agoW16
G26
W13
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N11NW17
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NW14NW12N12N9N10N11N11N10N8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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