Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:54PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:16 AM EDT (13:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 343 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Today..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of rain showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then Thunderstorms with showers likely. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of rain showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:202004071415;;698703 FZUS61 KCLE 070743 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 343 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... A warm front across northern Ohio will drift northeast onto the lake and stall this afternoon. Low pressure 29.50 inches will move east across Lake Erie tonight along the front. A cold front trailing the low will cross the lakes Tuesday night. Another low 29.30 inches will move east across the lakes Wednesday night and drag a strong cold front east across Lake Erie. Behind the front, a trough averaging 29.70 inches should linger over Lake Erie Thursday through Friday. A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will extend north across the lake Saturday. LEZ061-165>169-071415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 071052 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 652 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure and a warm front moving in from the upper Great Lakes will result in a few showers over western NY this afternoon, with rain and some thunderstorms over much of the area tonight. After rain diminishes Wednesday, another round of showers will return Wednesday night into Thursday as a strong cold front plows through the region Thursday morning. This front will usher in a stretch of very chilly weather with snow showers for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. For today. a quiet morning will be followed by some chances of showers this afternoon over western New York. The showers will mostly occur over western Southern Tier as warm air advection aloft moves in ahead of sfc low over the western Great Lakes and to the north of a sfc warm front over the northern Ohio Valley. High temps will push into the 50s North Country and in the 60s many other areas except right along the Lake Ontario shore.

Into Tonight, mid level shortwave and sfc-H85 low cross the region tonight, then exit across the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday. Sfc warm front tied to the low will slide along the NY/PA state line. Widespread rain expected mid evening through most of the overnight due to the larger scale lift from the shortwave, sfc low and warm air advection.

Of more interest though is potential for thunderstorms. Our area will reside on edge of MUCAPE gradient. Looking upstream currently, thunder is ongoing in similar regime to north of the sfc warm front and think we could be in line for similar fate tonight. Expected pattern and output from higher resolution convective allowing models (CAMs) along with SREF and HREF thunder probabilities suggest chance of thunder is justified over much of western NY extending to the Genesee River valley. Latest SPC day1 outlook points to most of region in general thunder with marginal risk for severe just south of NY/PA state line. Strong mid-level flow up to 50 kts and 0-6km shear over 40 kts would suggest any stronger storm along our southern border tonight has potential to produce some hail and gusty winds. Main storm motion from the west and left moving and right moving supercell motion vectors indicate these stronger storms will remain right along our border.

Late tonight as the sfc low slides east, larger scale support for rain diminishes. What will be left is saturated low-levels and a developing upslope flow as winds turn westerly behind the low. Rain likely will transition to more of a regime of drizzle and fog and low clouds into Wednesday morning. A bit more dry advection on Wednesday afternoon will result in some brightening of the skies and any rain becoming more spotty. Primary short term models are mixed in how cool it is on Wednesday. Leaned away from the NAM which kept temps in the 40s (very low end of all guidance) and instead went with GFS/Canadian/ECMWF idea which allowed readings in the afternoon to bounce up into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Expect a brief period of mainly dry weather through much of Wednesday night as one system pulls southeast of the area, while a powerful shortwave digs across the upper Great Lakes and associated surface low pulls northwest of the region. This will force a powerful cold front with a round of rainshowers across western and central NY Thursday morning. Breezy conditions will turn downright windy as colder air rushes in Thursday afternoon in the wake of the front. There may be a bit of a lull right behind the front before deeper wraparound moisture and cyclonic flow ramp shower chances back up once again, with some wet flakes possibly mixing in across the higher terrain by late in the day. Fairly strong cold air advection will do battle with strong April sunshine. This will likely keep temperatures fairly steady in the upper 30s to lower and mid 40s through the early afternoon, before slowly falling later in the day.

Deep cyclonic northwesterly flow will remain in place Thursday night and Friday. This combined with plenty of lingering synoptic moisture and 850Ts (-6C to -8C) that will induce at the very least some lake response, will produce numerous to widespread showers. Downwind of the lakes and the favored northwesterly upslope flow areas will see the highest precipitation amounts. Higher terrain will go over to all snow Thursday night, with rain or wet snow across the lower elevations. Snow will continue Friday morning across the higher terrain, with any lower elevation rain/snow mix changing back to plain rain. Snow will likely mix with rain at times across the higher terrain by Friday afternoon as April diurnal effects and deeper moisture pool begin to pull east of the area causing snowfall intensity to lessen some. All that said, there will likely be at least some snowfall accumulations across the higher terrain Thursday night into Friday morning. Depending on the exact 'window' of best accumulating snow (night vs day), will determine just how much snow will be able to accumulate. Continued blustery conditions will make it 'feel' no warmer than the freezing mark on Friday as temperatures remain in the mid and upper 30s, with some very low 40s possible across the lake plains and immediately downwind of the lakes.

Upper low finally pivots northeast into the Gulf of St. Lawrence Friday night allowing high pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley to ridge northeast through the night. Waning cyclonic flow aloft combined with drier air advecting in will allow any leftover upslope snow showers to taper off through the night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The surface ridge axis will crest across eastern Great Lakes on Saturday, providing mainly dry but chilly conditions, although it will feel much nicer with lighter winds and at least some sunshine. The axis of the ridge will then move east of our area Saturday night. This will allow a southerly flow of warmer air to move back north across the region for the second half of the weekend, however moisture will be on the increase as well. Although dry weather can be expected much of the time, cannot rule out a few scattered showers during this time, with chances slowly going up as Sunday wears on. The next chance for more widespread showers will come on Monday as low pressure moves into the region. Otherwise, below average temperatures Saturday will trend to near average on Sunday. Clouds and showers will drop temperatures back a few degrees from Sunday's highs to start the new week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR this morning with a few mid and high level clouds, greatest coverage over southwest NY. MVFR conditions will develop late this afternoon over western NY with a few showers. Better chance for rain and a few thunderstorms occurs tonight. Conditions will start off MVFR, but will deteriorate to IFR (LIFR at JHW) overnight tonight. Does appear that ART will remain on northern edge of lower clouds and should stay MVFR through the night. Brief LLWS is possible especially at JHW overnight tonight.

Outlook .

Wednesday . IFR to MVFR cigs in rain, fog and drizzle early with gradual improvement in the afternoon. Thursday . VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Friday . VFR/MVFR with rain/snow showers likely. Saturday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Light winds and limited waves are expected through this afternoon. NE winds will freshen a bit on Lake Ontario tonight, resulting in a little chop for the nearshore waters east of Thirty Mile point. While conditions ease on Lake Ontario on Wednesday, they will freshen some on Lake Erie, but either period on both lakes will stay below small craft advisory criteria.

Strong cold front plows across the region on Thursday and this will usher in period of strong winds, high waves and small craft advisory conditions on both lakes through Friday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . JLA SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JLA MARINE . JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NREP1 16 mi106 min ESE 4.1 G 6
EREP1 25 mi46 min E 1.9 G 6
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi16 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 48°F 1014.1 hPa (+0.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi76 min E 5.8 G 5.8 43°F 39°F1014.6 hPa (-0.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi46 min 1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi23 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F27°F34%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--NW7W6W7W6NW7NW43SW4SW6CalmCalmE4E4N4SE5S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW5W6W6W6W56W6W8W7W8W8SW5SW4S3SW5CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3S4CalmCalm
2 days agoN4N6N5N10N96NW5W6CalmSW6NW3S4S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmW5SW4SW6SW6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.