Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 4:50PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 6:11 AM EST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:37PMMoonset 6:51AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 407 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.gale warning in effect from 9 am est this morning through this evening...
Today..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales this afternoon. Snow showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers late this morning. Snow showers likely this afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers early. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots. Rain likely Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201912111530;;181726 FZUS61 KCLE 110907 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.50 inches will move to the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley overnight as weak low pressure 30.00 inches develops over Lake Superior. The low will drive another cold front across Lake Erie on Wednesday. High pressure 30.60 inches over Minnesota Wednesday will move across the central lakes by evening and continue to the New England Coast by Thursday. Low pressure 30.10 inches moves northeast out of Iowa into the Upper Lakes by Thursday evening. Stronger low pressure will move up the East Coast on Saturday, deepening to 29.10 inches by Sunday as it reaches Nova Scotia. LEZ061-169-111530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 110909 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 409 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Moving bands of lake effect snow will bring a few brief rounds of heavy snow and blowing snow today through this evening east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Lake effect snow will end tonight east of Lake Erie, and continue through Thursday morning southeast of Lake Ontario. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather later Thursday through Friday. Low pressure moving northward along the east coast will then bring rain and warmer temperatures to the region Friday night through Saturday, with rain changing back to snow Sunday as colder air moves back into the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Lake effect snow continues to be the main concern through tonight. A clipper will pass by well north of the region across Quebec today, with the trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes during the early to mid afternoon. The clipper cold front itself will do little, with very limited moisture and forcing to work with. It will introduce a more favorable lake effect environment however, with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to around 12K feet around the time of the cold frontal passage. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will be found within the boundary layer, yielding dendritic growth. Convergence along the clipper cold front will merge with pre- existing bands of lake effect convergence, maximizing low level forcing. This should result in strong, but short lived bands moving onshore from both lakes. The one limiting factor will be a relative lack of synoptic scale moisture compared to some events. This may limit the maximum intensity of the bands, but the very favorable thermodynamics and low level forcing should overcome this.

Off Lake Erie .

A fairly healthy band of snow is moving slowly north along the Lakeshore from Dunkirk to Angola early this morning. The heaviest snow is close to the lake, with lighter snow extending inland across the higher terrain. This band of snow will begin to accelerate northward through daybreak as boundary layer flow quickly backs to the SSW. The snow will cross the Buffalo Metro area during the early to mid morning, just in time for the morning commute. As is often the case with northward moving bands in a somewhat dry environment, the heaviest snow will be confined to near the lakeshore, with lighter snow inland from the lake.

The band of snow will make it all the way north to Grand island and central Niagara/western Orleans counties for a few hours late morning and midday. The clipper cold front will then capture the band, and force it to move quickly back to the southeast and across the Buffalo Metro area through mid afternoon. The entire band will move onshore from Buffalo all the way down to the Chautauqua County shoreline, moving quickly inland across the higher terrain east of the lake. This south/east moving band will be more intense than the morning band, given the stronger thermodynamics and added boost of convergence from the cold front. It will be moving fast however, only lasting an hour or two at most for any one location.

Total accumulations from last night through this evening still look to be in the 3-5 inch range from the Buffalo Metro area north and east, and 4-7 inches from southern Erie County down the Chautauqua County lakeshore and inland across the higher terrain. Much of this snow will fall in a few quick bursts.

The east end of the afternoon band will extend quite far inland. It is possible a few segments of the band may detach and be carried eastward by the cold front across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes, producing brief, heavy snow squalls.

The Lake Erie snow will quickly weaken during the early to mid evening across the western Southern Tier, with snow showers then ending completely overnight.

Off Lake Ontario .

Expect a similar trend a few hours later. Most of the snow this morning will be over the lake with weak, disorganized flow in place. By midday lake snow will be carried onshore near Kingston Ontario and Cape Vincent. This area of snow will consolidate and intensify into a more focused band by early to mid afternoon. The band will then be captured by the cold front and carried south and east across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

This initial band may move inland, followed by a brief lull. A band of lake effect snow should then re-develop near the southeast corner of the lake this evening. This band will settle south across Oswego County as boundary layer flow becomes WNW. Unlike Lake Erie, this band will last longer with a more favorable environment over Lake Ontario through early Thursday morning. High resolution model guidance differs on how far south the band will get, with some models moving it into northern Cayuga and northeast Wayne counties for a few hours in the middle of the night. If this occurs, advisories may need to be extended into this area. Late tonight and early Thursday morning the band will then move back north across Oswego County.

Total accumulations east of Lake Ontario will generally be 3-5 inches in most locations. The Tug Hill may see up to 6 inches as the strongest forcing late this afternoon interacts with upslope flow. Oswego County may also see up to 6 inches if the overnight band remains in one location long enough.

Finally, winds will become quite gusty today as the pressure gradient tightens across the eastern Great Lakes. Expect gusts of around 40 mph on the lake plains northeast and east of the lakes, and up to 30 mph farther inland. Where lake effect snow develops, the strong winds will produce blowing and drifting snow and very poor visibility for short periods of time. The combination of brief bursts of heavy snow and blowing snow will be the greatest impact from this event.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Thursday, winds will back as surface high pressure passes just to our south, with this feature also sending a wealth of mid level dry air across the eastern Great Lakes. A few flurries are possible early Thursday near Buffalo on a southwest flow, while east of Lake Ontario a weakening band of lake effect snow will likely continue to add to modest accumulations. Another inch or so of snow is possible, generally along and to the west of I-81. The backing winds will send a weakening band of snow from near Oswego County in the morning, to near the Thousand Islands by Thursday afternoon . where it will be in a much weaker state.

Fair weather will then occur Thursday night through Friday as this surface high pressure slides to the east. Behind the surface high a southerly flow will develop, and aid in sending Friday's temperatures into the 40s, with mid 40s likely through the Genesee Valley.

While our region is under fair weather, two upstream shortwave troughs will be advancing towards our region . and develop a surface low that will be our next weekend weather system.

The first wave, within the southern branch of the jet will be streaming across the Central Plains Friday, while a second shortwave will be dropping southward across Manitoba. These two waves will carve a deep trough over the eastern US, with this trough replacing a downstream ridge (which help to give us fair weather Friday).

Friday night a surface low will be forming just off the Carolina coastline. A deep southerly and southeasterly flow will transport both Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture northward . with the core of the moisture along a LLJ that will remain well to our east across eastern NY and New England. Still we will have PWAT values rising to three-quarters of an inch Friday night and Saturday, with initial warm air advection, and isentropic lift rain moving across our region Friday night and Saturday. There may be enough initial cold air on the onset of precipitation that a little snow may fall over the Tug Hill region early Friday night. Overall rainfall with this system again looks to be manageable for our region, with minor rises in creeks and streams.

Later Saturday and into Saturday evening a deformation axis rain shield will cross the region, that should primarily fall as plain rain across WNY before the cold air deepens and precipitation type changes to snow. There is still uncertainty with the timing of the colder air and change to snow..but we could see several inches of synoptic snow east of Lake Ontario if the colder air before the deformation band of precipitation ends.

Under the onset of cold air advection Saturday night (850 hPa temperatures falling to around -6 to -8C, and still under moist cyclonic flow aloft, and the passage of the upper level trough axis rain showers will transition to light accumulating snow for our region. Highlighted will be the colder, higher terrain where orographic lift maintains light snow through the night with a coating of snow across the hills of SW NYS, and additional snow on top of the deformation band of snow for areas east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Sunday, cold northwesterly flow will continue across our region as a now phased upper level trough, and deepening surface low are across Atlantic Canada. A few wind gusts could near 40 mph along the southern and eastern shoreline of Lake Ontario with this departing surface low. Continued cold air advection, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping down towards the negative teens range through the day will limit any surface warming. Highs Sunday will only be a few degrees warmer than the early Sunday morning lows. There will still be enough moisture around to continue now lake effect snow showers, highlighting areas to the south and southeast of the Lakes. There will also be some blowing snow within these stronger wind gusts . and will add this to the forecast for Sunday. As a ridge of high pressure draws towards the region Sunday night, drier air will end snow showers . while also inducing some clearing. East of Lake Ontario clearing skies will help bring a chilly night with lows dropping down into the lower teens, and possibly into the single digits in the coldest of spots.

Monday a surface ridge will pass across our region, ending any lingering lake effect snow early, and bring a quiet December weather day across the region with temperatures in the afternoon around the freezing mark.

Tuesday there becomes considerable model spread with the track of the next storm system. The 00Z GFS takes a classic high wind profile track of a deepening low pressure to our west and north, while the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian maintain this low to our south, keeping a colder airmass over our region and possible snow.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The lake effect snow off Lake Erie will move quickly north early this morning, before moving quickly back south during the afternoon. The band will produce IFR and VLIFR conditions with moderate to heavy snow as it migrates across the region. The fast movement will make for very changeable conditions, with the low VSBY not lasting for more than an hour or two at any one location. The same will occur off Lake Ontario, with lake effect snow developing over Canada at the northeast end of the lake late this morning, then moving quickly south and east across the east end of the lake during the afternoon and evening. This band will also produce IFR and VLIFR conditions with brief periods of moderate to heavy snow.

Outside of lake effect areas VFR will prevail most of today, although a few very brief snow showers and IFR are likely this afternoon with a cold frontal passage. Winds will gust up to 35 knots northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and around 25 knots farther inland.

The lake effect snow off Lake Erie will quickly diminish this evening across the western Southern Tier and end overnight. The Lake Ontario band will last longer, and center on Oswego County overnight with areas of IFR. Outside of lake effect areas VFR will prevail tonight.

KBUF Airport . Lake effect snow will move north across the airfield during the early to mid morning. This first batch will produce IFR, but VSBY below airfield minimums is not expected. The band of snow will then be north of the airport for a few hours before moving back south across KBUF during the early to mid afternoon. This second round of snow is likely to be heavier and accompanied by more blowing snow, with VSBY below airfield minimums possible for a brief (around 1 hour) period. Conditions will improve rapidly by 21Z as the band moves south of the airport.

Outlook .

Thursday . Lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with local IFR in the morning, ending in the afternoon. Otherwise VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes.

MARINE. A clipper low will pass by well north of the region today, with its trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes during the early to mid afternoon. A brief period of marginal gales will accompany the cold front on both lakes, with a few hours of sustained winds near 35 knots. Winds will quickly diminish tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A period of low end gale force winds will develop this afternoon and evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. The Lakeshore Flood Watch was upgraded to a Warning for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties this afternoon through tonight. This event will not be as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flooding, but still may be high enough to result in some flooding in flood prone areas and more shoreline erosion.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ012-085. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ019-020. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ010- 011. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042- 043. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045-063>065. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ062. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NREP1 16 mi101 min WSW 8 G 18 25°F
EREP1 25 mi53 min SW 7 G 14
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi71 min SW 11 G 15 25°F 1023.4 hPa (+0.7)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi59 min 28°F 1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi18 minSSW 1110.00 miOvercast25°F16°F69%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS17
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.