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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, NY

December 7, 2024 3:16 PM EST (20:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:30 AM   Sunset 4:46 PM
Moonrise 12:24 PM   Moonset 11:24 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
   
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LEZ061 Ripley To Buffalo Ny Extending From 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Avon Point To Willowick Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border-willowick To Geneva-on-the- Lake Oh Beyond 5nm Off Shoreline To Us-canadian Border-geneva-on- The-lake To Conneaut Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 935 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2024

.gale warning in effect from 4 pm est through Sunday morning - .

This afternoon - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers late. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.

Tonight - Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west. Waves 8 to 12 feet building to 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.

Sunday - West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Waves 10 to 14 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday - West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Snow showers during the day, then snow showers likely Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
LEZ005
No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
   
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Area Discussion for Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 071921 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 221 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will bring a period of light snow to Western NY this afternoon and evening. This warm front will bring a longer lasting period of moderate snow to the eastern Lake Ontario region tonight through early Sunday morning. A warming trend will then develop Sunday through Tuesday, with above average temperatures. Some light rain will cross the region Monday, and then again late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Colder air will return later Wednesday through the end of next week, with accumulating lake effect snow possible east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Lake effect snow off Lake Erie has all but ended, with just an area of flurries and very light snow east of the lake. This will move northward into the Niagara Frontier this afternoon and become absorbed by the incoming light synoptic snow. East of Lake Ontario, a better organized band of lake effect snow continues across Oswego and southern Lewis counties, but this too is showing signs of weakening and broadening from lowering inversion heights and increasing shear. What remains of the lake effect snow will move north across the Tug Hill towards Watertown later this afternoon, but will continue to weaken with time as the environment becomes more hostile to lake effect processes.

Our attention then turns back to the synoptic scale. A surface low will pass by just north of the Great Lakes late today through early Sunday, with an associated warm frontal boundary moving east across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. A wing of warm advection and isentropic upglide in advance of the warm front will produce a shield of snow across Western NY this afternoon and evening.
Accumulations will be minor in the west, with a coating to an inch in most areas.

The warm frontal snow east of Lake Ontario will last longer and will be a little heavier, with comparatively deeper moisture and stronger isentropic ascent. Expect another 3-6" east of Lake Ontario from late this afternoon through early Sunday, with the greatest amounts across the Tug Hill Plateau, and lowest amounts across low elevations.

It will become quite windy late this afternoon and tonight, especially across far Western NY. A 55+ knot low level jet will move into the eastern Great Lakes overnight. The warm advection pattern will keep low level lapse rates weak, but nonetheless, there may be enough mixing close to Lake Erie to support surface wind gusts in the 45-50 mph range from the Chautauqua County shoreline northward across the Niagara Frontier. The same low level jet will cross areas farther east, but even less favorable thermal profiles in the boundary layer will likely prevent stronger gusts from mixing down.
Expect gusts of 25-35 mph for the rest of the area. The low level jet will exit Sunday, and winds will quickly diminish as the eastern Great Lakes becomes situated in a col between systems by late afternoon.

Sunday, there may still be some light snow east of Lake Ontario early, but this will exit by late morning. If the precipitation lasts long enough into the day, it may mix with a little rain as temperatures warm. Otherwise, the rest of the day will be mainly dry with plenty of clouds lingering. It will turn notably warmer, with highs in the lower 40s on the lake plains and mid to upper 30s for higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Any remaining lake induced precipitation will end Sunday night as warm advection processes take over across the region. Lows Sunday night will be found in the 20s to low 30s.

Winter will hit the pause button Monday as a warmer air mass advects into the region. It will also bring with it some rain which will help to begin to melt some of the snow pack on the ground.

A compact mid-level wave tracking through the Ohio Valley Monday will bring the first wave of precipitation through the area. Given continuing strong deep layer warm advection ahead of the approaching attendant surface low, this event should be all be in the form of rain for most locales. There may be enough colder air at the onset to allow for some wet snow flakes east of Lake Ontario. This should be short-lived for lower elevations, but may remain mixed with wet snow on the top of the Tug Hill region
Overall
rainfall amounts with this first wave will range from a 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch over area basins. Given that these amounts are manageable, no hydro issues will likely occur but it will serve to start the process of ripening up the snowpack a bit.

Otherwise...given the milder airmass working into the region temperatures will rise into low to mid 40s across the forecast area.

This first wave moves off to our northeast Monday evening. There may still be some lingering showers ahead of the next system but most locales will see a reprieve. Have kept just low end PoPs for Monday night.

Another round of 'rain' arrives Tuesday and then last into Tuesday night. A deep mid-level trough and a couple surface waves will bring what looks like to be a rather damp raw day Tuesday. With this update...latest guidance shows another 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch, with slightly higher amounts across our far eastern locales. That said...there is still some variability in model QPF amounts. Taking a look at NAEFS/GEFS/HEFS most all Ensemble River Forecasts keep area creeks and rivers below action stage but there will be some rises. Its worth noting that SWE values are in the 4 to 6 inch range
At this point
there is a low threat of creek and river flooding, but certainly poor drainage ponding of water is likely with the snowmelt and rain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
For the lake snows, synoptic moisture and lake parameters will be favorable for again heavy lake snows east of the Lakes.
Wednesday night through Thursday are the most favorable period with EQL levels back up over 10K feet on a westerly flow. There is some hint in the models that the band of snow will lift northward towards Buffalo/Watertown for Friday, but at the same time dry air advection with an incoming surface high will lower favorable lake effect snow parameters.

A warm air front may bring some precipitation to our region to start next weekend, with deep southerly flow allowing for temperatures to be above normal.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario with local IFR/LIFR will continue to weaken this afternoon, with the remnants of the band bringing some IFR to KART as it moves north. Low pressure will then pass just north of the area later tonight and early Sunday, with an associated warm front moving from west to east across the eastern Great Lakes. This warm front will bring a period of light snow and IFR to Western NY this afternoon and evening. Following the warm frontal snow, there should be temporary improvement to mainly VFR across Western NY later this evening. Stratus will then re-develop late tonight and continue through much of Sunday, with MVFR lower elevations and IFR higher terrain.

East of Lake Ontario, the warm frontal snow will last longer and be somewhat heavier, with IFR/LIFR late this afternoon through much of tonight. The snow will end later Sunday morning, and may mix with some rain by late morning or midday before ending. Following the warm frontal snow areas of low stratus will continue for the rest of Sunday, with MVFR lower elevations and IFR higher terrain.

Finally, a strong 55+ knot low level jet will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The stronger winds aloft will partially mix down to the surface, especially across Western NY where gusts of 35- 40+ knots are expected, including KBUF and KIAG. Elsewhere, gusts of 25-35 knots will be common overnight through early Sunday. Where surface winds are not gusty, low level wind shear will occur.

Outlook...

Monday.. MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR, with rain developing late.
Tuesday night and Wednesday.. MVFR/IFR with rain changing to wet snow from west to east.
Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Heavier lake effect snow east of the lakes with LIFR.

MARINE
Low pressure will pass by just north of the Great Lakes tonight through early Sunday, with a warm front moving east across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten as the low passes by, and a 55+ knot low level jet will move across the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a period of gale force winds to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through early Sunday. Winds will quickly diminish Sunday afternoon as the system moves off into the Canadian Maritimes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ001-002-010>012-019- 085.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ062.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ063>065.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi77 minSSW 9.9G15 34°F 29.98
45142 - Port Colborne 17 mi77 minSW 25G29 36°F 44°F7 ft29.95
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi47 min 33°F 29.91
NREP1 30 mi107 minSW 8.9G19 33°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi47 minS 24G27 32°F 38°F29.9128°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi47 min 33°F 29.92
EREP1 47 mi47 minSSW 8G15


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
   
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY 3 sm24 minSSW 11G2310 smOvercast34°F19°F55%29.95
KJHW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/JAMESTOWN,NY 24 sm21 minSW 1410 smOvercast27°F18°F68%29.92

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Buffalo, NY,





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