Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:23PM Saturday January 25, 2020 3:58 PM EST (20:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 325 Pm Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers early, then a chance of snow showers from late evening on. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers early, then snow showers from late morning on. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
LEZ061 Expires:202001260315;;507392 FZUS61 KCLE 252025 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 325 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure 29.80 inches over Lake Michigan will slowly move east northeast to southeast Ontario by Sunday morning. The low will move to New Brunswick by Monday, bringing a trailing cold front south across the lake Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure averaging 30.20 inches will build southeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday through Friday. LEZ061-165>169-260315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 251950 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 250 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. A complex weather system moving through the Great Lakes region will bring mixed precipitation to the region early tonight before colder air gradually changes the precipitation over to snow late tonight and Sunday. Most areas should pick up an inch or two of snow accumulation by the end of the weekend with parts of the Southern Tier and Eastern Lake Ontario region receiving several inches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Nearly vertically stacked low to our west over Michigan will slow track east today, then pass by to the north of the eastern Great Lakes over the course of the day Sunday. Strong lift within the 925- 800 mb level and a 60+ knot LLJ is producing an area of moderate to heavy precipitation. The LLJ responsible for the moderate to heavy precipitation will continue to pump in a plethora of moisture northward across our far eastern counties before it slowly lifts off to our east and northeast later this afternoon.

While regional observation as of 18Z show most location have climbed above freezing, there still may be some isolated areas of freezing rain or a bit of sleet mixing in from time to time. This will especially be the case across the St. Lawrence River Valley where light northerly flow has kept temperatures right near the freezing mark. Temperatures there will struggle to climb above freezing and may likely stay below freezing over the course of this storm. Otherwise, with temperatures now mainly above freezing, expect rain for most locations for the rest of the daylight hours.

Tonight, expect a change over from rain to snow to occur across the eastern Great Lakes with some light accumulating snowfall overnight. Current 12Z model soundings show this occuring between 03-06Z for far Western NY, then a bit later for the Finger Lakes to eastern Lake Ontario region. While sounding profiles will likely grow cold enough to support snow tonight, initially deep moisture will not be present within the -10C to -20C layer. With that said, drizzle or freezing drizzle may still be the main ptype until after 03Z. Lacking initially the deep synoptic moisture and marginal surface temperatures snowfall will likely not amount to very much overnight, especially at lower elevations. Lower elevations a best will likely see nothing more than a trace up to a few tenths. Higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and east of lake Ontario may see up to an inch where temperatures will be a bit more supportive of accumulations.

The weak surface low will then track past the Lower Lakes as it heads off to Maine on Sunday. While there will be ongoing light snow favoring the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill, accumulations will again be minor as 850mb temperatures will only be in the neighborhood of -6C to -7C. Add to that, marginal surface temperatures which will again hamper snowfall accumulations. Therefore, only an additional inch or so through mid afternoon is expected across the higher terrain. Elsewhere, less than an inch if much at all. Late Sunday afternoon, another round of moisture pivoting around the upper level low will bring a better chance of accumulating snowfall. Upslope flow (westerly flow) and the above mentioned arrival of additional moisture, along with a secondary upper level trough forecast to move through Sunday night will likely bring the greatest potential for accumulating snowfall. Otherwise, total daytime accumulations will be light Sunday with the potential of only 1-3 inches at best across the higher terrain.

In terms of temperatures, which will play a critical role in accumulation will likely peak in the mid 30s for lower elevations to low 30s across higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Stacked low pressure over southern Quebec will continue to track east Sunday night. A shortwave trough will round the base of the upper low Sunday night and upward motion will increase across the eastern Great Lakes region. Moisture will increase allowing temperature profiles to saturate through the dendritic growth zone. There is a lack of cold air behind this trough that moves through so cold air advection will be very weak overnight. Temperatures at 850mb fall to around -8C by Monday morning which is marginal for lake enhancement across Lakes that are 35-38 F. Westerly flow turns northwesterly overnight and ongoing snow showers across the region will become enhanced across the higher terrain east of both Lakes. Temperatures will also fall to the upper 20s across the higher terrain east of both Lakes to the low to mid 30s across the Lake Plains. These marginal surface temperatures across the lower elevations will keep snowfall accumulations light. Accumulating snow is expected across the higher terrain with amounts of 4-7 inches on the Tug Hill and 3-6 inches across the Chautauqua Ridge and Cattaraugus, southern Erie and Wyoming counties. The best timing for accumulating snow across the higher terrain will be Sunday evening through Monday morning. This may warrant an Advisory in future updates.

Northwest flow continues on the backside of the departing shortwave trough Monday. Snow showers will continue across the region with orographic enhancement on the higher terrain. Upstream moisture will diminish through the day as northwest flow continues. An additional 1-2 inches is possible across the higher terrain to less than inch across the lower elevations. High temperatures will reach the low 30s across the higher terrain to the mid 30s across the lower elevations.

Diminishing snow showers are expected Monday night. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The upper level trough and associated surface cold front will push south of NYS on Tuesday. Expect some continued light upslope snow showers across the higher terrain, with some light lake enhanced snow showers even across the lower terrain south and southeast of the lakes as the air aloft grows cold enough behind the front to support some lake response. That said, the lack of any real synoptic moisture and inversion heights capped at or below 5K feet will keep any snowfall amounts to a minimum. As mentioned, this front will usher in a somewhat colder airmass, allowing our temperatures to return to near average for this time of the year.

After a few lingering light snow showers south of the lakes Tuesday night, dry weather will return for Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be around average Wednesday and Thursday, before climbing back above average to end the work week.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Steady precipitation covers the area east of Rochester this afternoon with less/lighter coverage to the west. Most of the precipitation is in the form of rain with some wet snow and sleet mixed in at times. A bit more warming through the rest of the afternoon may result in losing all of the wintry mix for a brief time. There should also be a lull in the precipitation from west to east this evening, before colder air wrapping into the area redevelops a mix of rain/snow later this evening then a chance to mainly snow very late tonight. Widespread low end MVFR and IFR cigs are expected through tonight with some LIFR cigs possible.

Outlook .

Sunday . MVFR to IFR in widespread snow showers. Monday . IFR to MVFR cigs slowly improving to VFR. Tuesday . Mainly VFR . but MVFR in scattered snow showers. Wednesday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Winds will shift to the southwest on both lakes this evening and increase by late tonight along with associated waves. Expect another round of Small Craft Advisories to be needed late tonight through late Sunday night on eastern Lake Erie and lingering into Monday night on portions of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . AR/JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . AR SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JLA/RSH/TMA MARINE . AR/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi58 min SW 16 G 19 37°F 1009.9 hPa (-0.9)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi58 min 35°F 1009.7 hPa (-0.9)
NREP1 30 mi88 min W 6 G 13 38°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi58 min SSW 11 G 13 36°F 36°F1009.9 hPa (-1.0)29°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi58 min 38°F 1009.4 hPa (-1.1)
EREP1 47 mi58 min W 7 G 12

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi65 minWSW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast39°F34°F82%1010.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11SE64SE13
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1 day agoNE3NE3NE5NE3E3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmE4W3N3NE5CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6
2 days agoSW4S5S4SW5SW4SW7S11S12S8S9S9S11S8S5S4S4CalmS3S8S4CalmN4N5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.