Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:37PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:51 AM EDT (11:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:53PMMoonset 8:00AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 355 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers after midnight. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201910151415;;733008 FZUS61 KCLE 150755 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 355 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.10 inches across the lower lakes will exit the region to the east this afternoon. Low pressure over the Upper Midwest will deepen to 29.50 inches as it moves east across the central lakes Wednesday, taking a cold front east across the lake. High pressure of 30.10 inches builds east across the Ohio Valley Thursday night through Saturday. LEZ061-169-151415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 151036
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
636 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure near our region will provide for a nice day with
left over lake effect clouds diminishing east of the lakes. A
strong cold front will plow through our region late tonight and
Wednesday, bringing numerous rain showers, gusty winds and a
chance for thunder. In the wake of this front, chilly air will
support lake effect rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday to
the southeast of the eastern great lakes.

Near term through tonight
This morning surface high pressure is found over the mid-atlantic
region. Regional radars display a very weak and narrow band of lake
effect rain over oswego county, with the region dry elsewhere. A
good deal of lake strato-cu remains across areas east of lake
ontario. Where skies have cleared overnight, fog has formed in
the valleys of the southern tier.

Water vapor imagery displays an upper level shortwave over the
northern plains and this will drive our weather the second half of
this forecast period.

For today surface high pressure nearby will bring a nice day with
afternoon temperatures a degree or two above normal... With highs in
the mid 50s to around 60. Lake effect rain will end around daybreak
east of lake ontario... Though lake clouds east of lake ontario will
likely persist deeper into the day and slide northward towards the
saint lawrence valley as the low level flow backs.

Tonight a pv MAX will drop behind this upper level low, sharping the
upper level low which in turn will deepen a surface low that will
track from near green bay this evening to northern lake huron
tomorrow morning. This slightly negative tilt to the upper level
trough and deepening surface low will increase the pressure gradient
such that a decent southerly flow will be upon our region later
tonight.

Southerly flow and increasing cloudiness will limit overnight
cooling and in fact temperatures will likely rise a few degrees
across the lower terrain of far wny late tonight. Lows will be
around 50f across wny, while a lighter southerly flow will allow for
temperatures east of lake ontario to dip into the 40s.

Rain showers will impeded upon far wny after midnight tonight... With
rain likely spreading across lake erie, western lake ontario and
bordering counties between 4 am and 6 am. Soundings display elevated
instability of a few hundred j kg, that as deeper moisture arrives
(pwats near an inch) a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Rain
showers will be pushing towards the genesee valley just after
daybreak tomorrow.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
Sharpening upper trough, bolstered by strong jet energy currently
cresting ridge over western canada, will be vcnty of central great
lakes to start the day on Wednesday. Associated sfc low tied to the
upper trough slides from lower michigan to the ottawa valley through
the day while propelling strong cold front across the lower great
lakes which should reach western ny around daybreak. Convergence
and moisture advection along the front along with right
entrance lift from jet streaking from central great lakes across
quebec will support swath of rain showers. Ribbon of elevated
instability pressing in from upstream continues to support
potential for low-topped thunderstorms which could produce gusty
winds given 50 kt low-level jet present and heavy rain as h85
dwpnts surge to +12c. Cold front moves steadily east on
Wednesday morning toward genesee valley and finger lakes and
reaches east of lake ontario on Wednesday afternoon. Elevated
instability may wane briefly before increasing again late
morning into early aftn over eastern forecast area. Hazards of
heavy rain and gusty winds will be present over all the area as
the front crosses. Though temps out ahead of front may briefly
reach around 60f, temps behind the front will steady out or even
start to fall off over western ny so have included non-diurnal
temp curve.

Forecast soundings show decent deeper cold air advection in wake of
the front in the h9-h7 layer. Soundings also show subsidence min in
deeper moisture in wake of the front through most of Wednesday aftn.

Though delta t S increase to around 18c on Wednesday aftn downwind
of lake erie, expect the lake effect will stay lighter and not as
organized with the unfavorable supplemental forcing moisture and a
bit of shear in the lake effect convective layer. Looks like as the
upper trough slides into eastern ny mid atlantic through daybreak
Thursday, deeper moisture increases later Wednesday night some
inversions lifting up to around 10kft and lake equilibrium levels
rising to around 20kft, first downwind of lake erie in a wsw veering
wnw flow then eventually closer to the east and southeast shoreline
of lake ontario. With the higher inversions and more of a chance of
mixed phase precip, seems that Wednesday night into Thursday morning
will be when greatest chance of hearing some thunder will be from
this lake effect event. Kept chances in, but did restrict inland
extent of thunder to 20-30 miles based on local study of past
events. Thunder or not, pops will be high downstream of the lakes
and some heavy rain is certainly still possible. Soundings show
mixed layer winds on Thursday solidly in the 20-35 kts range.

Probably will not reach wind advisory criteria, but will still
be quite breezy. Very cool temps expected on Thursday across the
board with readings commonly in the 40s to near 50f.

Late Thursday into Thursday night primary area of very deep low
pressure will be organizing over northern new england to off the
coast of maine. Deep moisture that rotates across western and north
central ny will exit off toward eastern quebec and newfoundland. So
late Thursday night we'll be back to lower inversion lake effect
again (5-8kft off lake ontario and less than 5kft off lake erie).

Even with lighter intensity, coverage of the lake effect and cloud
cover should stay pretty widespread over much of the area. As a
result temps will stay mainly in the upper 30s to around 40f.

Long term Friday through Monday
As main low pressure system slowly lifts across newfoundland and
atlantic canada, a high pressure ridge will gradually move toward
the lower great lakes. Stubborn NW low-level flow with adequate
over- water instability and moisture below inversion led to
delaying ending of pops and higher sky cover until Friday
afternoon or maybe even Friday evening downwind of eastern lake
ontario. Eventually though the high will win out and bring a
period of dry weather later Friday night through Saturday across
western and north central new york. The clearing skies will
result in mins into at least the mid 30s with frost on Friday
night. Highs on Saturday will start a warming trend with
readings back above normal into the lower 60s, though it will
stay in the 50s on the tug hill.

Forecast becomes more unsettled Sunday with better chances of rain
probably arriving on Monday. As long as rain holds off on Sunday
(note the ECMWF is quicker with rain arrival compared to GFS and
canadian), temps on Sunday should reach around 70f if not into the
lower 70s as model guidance suggests 850mb temperatures reaching +10-
12 c across western and north central ny. That warmth aloft
continues into Monday as well but by that time there will likely be
a surge of moisture moving north from the gulf of mexico which will
bring a better chance of rain meaning we probably won't realize the
warmer temps aloft.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure near our region will continueVFR flight conditions
across the TAF region as we start the 12z tafs.

Impactful weather will likely wait until after 06z tonight. A
deepening storm system will cut across northern lp of michigan
tonight and swing a cold front to our western doorsteps by 12z
Wednesday. Ahead of this front southeast to southerly winds will be
found across TAF region. Showers, with flight conditions lowering to
MVFR are likely to reach kbuf kiag and kjhw by 12z. There will also
be elevated instability such that a rumble of thunder could
accompany these showers late tonight.

Ahead of the cold front a LLJ around 40 knots will increase tonight,
such that low end llws will be possible, especially through the
finger lakes and genesee valley. As we draw closer to 12z, these
southeast to south surface winds will become stronger... Negating the
llws from the 40 knot LLJ aloft.

Outlook...

Wednesday... Showers with areas of MVFR. Gusty winds.

Thursday... A chance of lake effect showers and MVFR CIGS east
of the lakes, otherwiseVFR.

Friday... MainlyVFR. Slight chance of a lake effect shower east of
lake ontario.

Saturday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure over the mid atlantic region today will result in
light winds and waves. Southerly winds will begin to increase
tonight on the lake waters, with higher waves remaining over the
canadian waters. These freshening southerly winds will reach small
craft thresholds late tonight, and veer Wednesday behind a cold
front. Still remaining strong, occasional gusts to near gale force
early Wednesday will bring an increase in wave heights. Likely small
craft advisories will continue through Thursday night on lake erie,
and into Friday on lake ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Jla thomas
short term... Jla
long term... Hsk jla
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi51 min SSE 8 G 9.9 43°F 1020.9 hPa (+0.7)
45142 - Port Colborne 17 mi111 min W 3.9 G 7.8 51°F 60°F2 ft1020.4 hPa (+0.5)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi51 min 40°F 1020.4 hPa (+0.6)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi51 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 60°F1020.9 hPa (+0.7)30°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi51 min 44°F 1020.6 hPa (+0.6)
EREP1 47 mi51 min S 6 G 8

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi58 minS 310.00 miFair38°F34°F86%1021.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4NW9NW4NW6NW5W8W4W9SW7S9S6S6S3S5Calm3W3W4W8W5S4S4S3S3
1 day agoS12
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SW8S6S7S7S8S7S8S9S10S9S10S11S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.