Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:46PM Friday April 3, 2020 2:12 PM EDT (18:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 951 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Patchy fog late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. A chance of rain Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
LEZ061 Expires:202004032015;;508720 FZUS61 KCLE 031351 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 951 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... A ridge averaging 30.20 inches will build east across the lake today and linger through Saturday. A weak cold front will move east across the lake Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure 30.20 inches from the western lakes will build over Lake Erie Sunday and Monday. A warm front approaches Lake Erie from the south on Monday night and remains south of the basin on Tuesday. LEZ061-165>169-032015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 031802 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 202 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Moisture from low pressure off the east coast will bring showers, drizzle, and fog to the region through tonight. Dry weather will then return Saturday before a weak cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will warm to above average over the weekend through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Strong low pressure off the New England coast will continue to wrap moisture back into our region through this evening. An inverted trough extending northwest from the low is being forced westward in the process. Showers will be focused with DPVA ahead of the mid level trough and frontogenesis and deformation along the inverted trough. In addition, low level moisture and a moderate northerly flow will result in areas of drizzle. Although rainfall amounts will be light, both radar trends and mesoscale guidance show an increasing chance of measurable precipitation. Rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth inch.

Most of the scattered showers and drizzle will end this evening as high pressure builds in from the central Great Lakes and winds diminish. The main forecast concern for tonight is the potential for fog. The lowering cloud deck may begin to intersect the higher hilltops with some fog developing across the higher terrain. However, if any breaks in the stratus deck develop the locally dense radiation fog will develop. Expect the stratus to remain fairly solid, but did expand the coverage of fog since it will not take much of a break in clouds before fog develops tonight. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s on the lake plains and mid 30s for higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure sfc to mid levels will provide a dry start to the weekend. Low clouds and some fog leftover from the fringes of the system that brings some showers and sprinkles to the region today will slowly scour out as the day progresses. High pressure over Quebec will result in light but steady northerly winds over the region which will keep temps in the mid to upper 40s near the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline and also near Lake Erie as a weak lake breeze develops there. Otherwise, increasing sunshine in the afternoon will boost inland temps into the 50s.

Later Saturday night into Sunday, shortwave trough, leftover from the sharp trough that is currently bringing some spring snow to portions of the northern Plains, deflects north as it runs into the ridge across the northeast. Associated sfc trough also will lose steam as it crosses the region. Upshot is that there may be a few showers on Sunday, but some areas may not see much if any rain at all as models continue to point to overall weakening trend. High temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 50s. A slight cooler exception will be along the immediate Lake Erie shoreline within just a few miles as light westerly winds keeps it a bit cooler in the upper 40s to near 50F.

High pressure building in from the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday night will put an end to already minimal shower chances. Lows will drop back into the low to middle 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Broad ridge from central CONUS to the east Coast persists until midweek when sharper upper trough digs from scntrl Canada across the Great Lakes. At the sfc, high pressure will net a dry day on Monday. Typical spring setup by the lakes in terms of temperatures with inland locations reaching toward 60F on Monday afternoon while light flow/lake breezes keep immediate Lake Erie and Lake Ontario shores cooler in the upper 40s to near 50F.

Once the sfc ridge moves east to New England, a return low-level flow develops across the lower Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. Stronger warm air advection stays southwest over the Ohio Valley and based on the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF, looks like most rain showers will stay southwest as well, so have trimmed pops over much of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, keeping just chance pops over southwest NY. Better chances for rain on Wednesday as overall warm air advection pattern sharpens up with approaching warm front and a shortwave moving in from the western Great Lakes. Prefer the sharper look in QPF gradient keeping highest pops over western cwa and closer to the NY/PA state line as shown by recent runs of the ECMWF, compared to the GFS and GEFS.

Stronger shortwave trough and associated low dig across the region Thursday. A cool, wet day looks likely Thursday with widespread showers and a breezy northwest wind. Temps continue to trend downward with readings probably staying in the 40s all areas and maybe only reaching the lower 40s closer to Lake Ontario and across the North Country.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Moisture associated with low pressure off the New England coast will continue to move from east to west through this evening. This will result in some light showers and drizzle, and it will also spread low stratus into the region. Cloud bases will lower from mainly MVFR to mainly IFR by this evening. Some of the low stratus may intersect the hills, with hilltop fog and mountain obscuration today and tonight. There is also a risk that stratus will briefly scatter out tonight as high pressure builds into from the central Great Lakes. If this happens, there is a potential for dense radiation fog. For now, expected that the stratus will remain in place, which would result in modest 2SM (IFR) vsby restrictions tonight.

Stratus will slowly lift and scatter during the day Saturday. However, expect mainly IFR/MVFR flight conditions to last through the morning hours before this happens.

Outlook .

Saturday night . VFR lowering to MVFR. A chance of showers late. Sunday . Scattered showers early with MVFR/IFR CIGS. Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Northwest winds will diminish this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens, with light winds and flat wave action tonight through Saturday. A weak cold front will move across the waters late Saturday night into Sunday, and this will produce a wind shift but winds will remain on the light side.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Apffel/Hitchcock SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi72 min WSW 8.9 G 9.9 41°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi60 min 1016 hPa
NREP1 30 mi102 min WNW 5.1 G 8
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi54 min NW 8 G 9.9 41°F 46°F1016.1 hPa26°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi60 min 41°F 1016.3 hPa
EREP1 47 mi54 min W 11 G 12

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi19 minN 810.00 miOvercast46°F32°F58%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W9W13
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--SW9W6--NW7NW10NW7NW8NW9NW7NW8W6NW9NW7NW8NW10N10N84NW9N8
1 day agoNW9N5N4N6E4W7SW6SW7SW6SW5SW6SW6SW4SW6W5W5SW45W5W6NW6NW8NW7NW7
2 days agoN7N7N8NE8NE9NE9NE10NE12NE9NE8NE6NE8NE8NE6NE8NE9NE8N9NE11N12N11N10N9N12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.