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LEZ061 Ripley To Buffalo Ny Extending From 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 915 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
This afternoon..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.

LEZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 081434 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 934 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Notably milder air will overspread the region with temperatures climbing well into the 50s by Saturday afternoon. A low pressure system will then bring a soaking rainfall to the area Saturday night into Sunday. Rain will change over to snow from west to east Sunday night as colder air moves back into the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A mid-level ridge will build across the region today, while surface high pressure builds across western New England. High pressure subsidence will ensure a dry day with some clearing from the west this morning, though additional clouds will likely move back in later in the afternoon. Light southerly flow and WAA will boost high temperatures into the 50s across the lake plains west of Rochester which will benefit from southerly downsloping.

Tonight, cloud cover will increase in advance of the next shortwave, but the mid-level ridge axis will maintain dry weather overnight.
Persistent southerly winds around 10 mph will prevent radiational cooling with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A very active period as a deep trough will advance from the nation's mid section to across our region Monday morning. This trough will tap into both Atlantic moisture as well as Gulf of Mexico moisture, sending a plume of deep moisture across our region, moisture that will fuel a soaking rainfall across our region. Cold air rushing in behind a cold front Sunday night will yield an inch or two of wet snow, with potential for higher amounts across higher terrain.

Rain will push into WNY Saturday night with diffluent flow aloft, and lower level convergence on the nose of a 50 knot LLJ. This steady southerly flow Saturday night will keep overnight temperatures mild, with most areas only lowering into the mid to upper 40s. This will be close to 20 degrees above normal minimum temperatures. Rain will spread eastward to our eastern zones by around the midnight hour.

Models are settling in on a wavy frontal boundary with waves of low pressure moving along it Sunday into Monday morning. This front will be near central Lake Erie to start Sunday morning, keeping everyone with a mild start to the day. Heaviest rain on Sunday in the warm sector will occur where strongest moisture advection of abnormally high PWATs well over the 90th percentile occurs ahead of the front (eastern Finger Lakes northward to the eastern Lake Ontario region).
Additional lift will be generated aloft by jet streaks within a 110 knot jet at 300 hPa. By late Sunday night, areas on the Tug Hill may see up to 1.25 inches or more of liquid rainfall boosted by upslope flow. Farther west though, the gradient of QPF will be sharper with three quarters to an inch of rainfall likely. Latest MMEFS of the GEFS and NAEFS continues to highlight only the Black River in the North Country as possibly rising to action stage...and this would not be until later in the week as this river is a slow riser.

Temperatures will fall through the afternoon hours behind the front for WNY, while east of Lake Ontario temperatures will linger in the upper 40s through the afternoon hours.

As the next wave of low pressure lifts by on Sunday night to our east, there is good agreement that switch from rain to snow occurs as early as dusk Sunday evening for higher terrain of southwest NYS, then eventually through the evening for the rest of western NY with most locations to snow by midnight. Anafrontal look to this event with precipitation lingering through the night with CAA advection aloft. Feel the change from rain to snow will be sharp.

It is certainly possible winter headlines may eventually be needed for the change to wet snow Sunday night into Monday, with highest chances of that from Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and probably more so for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. In these spots, models and ensemble probability data suggest several inches of wet/sloppy snow could occur and it is here there is also higher signal for widespread moderate impacts on the latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (Prob WSSI).

Lower elevations will likely see much less snow, including the Buffalo to Rochester corridor. Away from the better convergence of the eastern surface low, and at a lower elevation these areas may only accumulate an inch or two of snow. Still with temperatures falling to just under the freezing mark, slippery spots are quite possible impacting the Monday morning commute. Additionally the prior period of rainfall will leave no time for pre-treating the roads, with this rain washing away any left over salt on the roads prior to the onset of snow.

Steady system snow exits fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind within a tight surface pressure gradient. Even though winds will gust potentially to 35 mph, the wet snow will have little blowing and drifting.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Shallow lake effect snow Monday night southeast of the Lakes will drift northward with backing winds. Snow will end quickly with warm air advection aloft and advection of drier air. A diminished band may lift northward across Watertown Tuesday morning.

Rest of long term looks changeable. Modest warm up on Tuesday with gusty WSW winds that will be followed by cool down on Wednesday as a fairly sharp cold front drops across. Highest pops near the lakes for now but maybe a touch of light snow for all areas on Wednesday if this front ends up having a bit more punch than shown right now.
Another round of warm air advection starts up on Thursday as a fairly strong surface high pressure system pushes eastward from the Plains.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Lower cig have scattered out across Western NY, but there remains some low LIFR stratus and fog east of Lake Ontario.
This should exit this area this morning when winds shift to southeast and mix out the low moisture. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR flight conditions this afternoon.

Clouds will return by late afternoon and evening in advance of the next system, but cloud bases expected to be in the VFR flight category. These may drop to MVFR across higher terrain (such as KJHW) but should remain VFR at most TAF sites overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Offshore south/southeasterly winds will increase some today, but will remain below SCA criteria through much of Saturday. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will arrive Sunday night through Monday as colder air moves back into the lower Great Lakes in the wake of the warm weekend system. Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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