Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dunkirk, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather on Tuesday

It will be a fine night across the region...as high pressure anchored off the Mid Atlantic coast will maintain fair dry weather.
It will certainly be milder than last night (Sun nt)...as the clockwise circulation around the high and a freshening southerly low level jet will hold temperatures in the 50s
In fact
a non-diurnal temp trend can be expected...esp west of the Finger Lakes. While a 45 knot low level jet will be in place after midnight...the flow should be too south-southwesterly to take full advantage of any downsloping off the Chautauqua ridge
Regardless
winds along the usual stretch of the NYS Thruway between Ripley to Hamburg could gust to 30-35 mph.

It will be quite unsettled on Tuesday...as a cold front will approach the region from the Upper Great Lakes. The forcing from this strong feature will combine with an anomalously strong 50-55kt low level jet and enhanced lift from being under the front entrance region of a 140kt UL jet to promote strong to severe convection. The problem
as is often the case in western New York
is that a pre frontal trough will move through the region during the second half of the morning into the early afternoon. While storms within this first area of convection could still get robust with 40kts of shear presenting the risk for discreet cells and an elevated risk of severe weather...the resulting convective debris will limit the remaining diurnally instability for the mid and late afternoon.

That being said...a second round of thunderstorms is then expected along and head of the cold front between 22-02z. While ample shear will still be in place...it will be a matter of how much instability will be present. Further complicating the issue will be the likelihood for a short lived lake shadow from the BUF metro areas northeast to near ROC. This SHOULD keep the focus for severe weather on areas to the south and east of that axis
In summary
the Storm Prediction Center has the bulk of our forecast area within an Enhanced risk (30% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of any point) for severe weather. The exception is the IAG Frontier and much of the North country where a SLIGHT Risk for severe weather will be in place.

Otherwise...Tuesday will become very breezy with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph for most areas and as high as 40 mph for the IAG Frontier.
It will once again be on the warm side of normal with highs not far from 80.

In the wake of the frontal passage early Tuesday evening...
conditions will quickly improve with partial clearing during the overnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A brief respite from the active weather as sfc high pressure centered just north of the Great Lakes Wednesday morning shifts to eastern Quebec by late Wednesday night. Temperatures will average a few degrees below normal during this timeframe, especially south- southeast of the lakes Wednesday afternoon with weak onshore flow.

Chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms ramp up again Thursday into Thursday evening as a deep trough continues to dig south across the Midwest, with a broad area of sfc low pressure moving out of the lower Mississippi Valley and strengthening as it moves into the Great Lakes by Thursday night. With the forecast area being firmly entrenched in the system's warm sector during this time, temperatures will also recover to seasonably warm levels. A strong cold front will then likely bring another round of showers and possibly a few additional thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday, with drier temperatures falling in its wake, though there remains a fair amount of spread amongst the guidance on the timing of this front.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
An highly amplified pattern will take shape across the CONUS through the weekend, with a strong ridge across the nation's midsection flanked by two deep troughs moving inland from the Pacific and across the Northeast. The axis of the latter will remain upstream of the forecast area through much of Saturday, maintaining cooler temperatures and lower-end chances for showers before the ridge nudges eastward and a more persistent drying trend takes hold. Still a lot of model spread on how exactly this eastern trough evolves, with a small possibility that lingering cyclonic flow brings a few stray showers to the North Country through Sunday.

The encroaching ridge should allow for mainly dry weather to continue through early next week with a gradual warming trend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place through tonight. The only issue will be the risk for low level wind shear after 06z...as 40-45 kt winds at 1000-1500 ft will overspread the region.

On Tuesday...while VFR conditions will be in place for the majority of the time...there will be an increasing chance for showers and strong to severe thunderstorms. The threat of convection will come in two waves...the first being from late morning into early afternoon and the second coming during the late afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with showers developing.
Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday.. MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with scattered morning showers.

MARINE
High pressure over the region will result in little issue on area lakes this evening.

South to southwesterly winds will increase during the second half of the night as the pressure gradient increases over the area out ahead of an approaching trough and strong cold front. Winds will likely be strong enough to reach SCA levels on most of the marine zones later tonight through Tuesday night.

High pressure crossing the region on Wednesday will bring the return to lighter winds and lower wave heights from Wednesday morning through at least Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.