Thursday, November14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday November 14, 2019 6:46 PM EST (23:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:56PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0062.000000t0000z-191027t1045z/ 633 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. However, gusty winds to 30 knots will persist. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4292 8246 4282 8248 4276 8247 4262 8251 4259 8254 4270 8264 4269 8260 4266 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4322 8256 4341 8259 4343 8255 4343 8220 time...mot...loc 1030z 264deg 39kt 4320 8228 4239 8143
LCZ422 Expires:201910271042;;344484 FZUS73 KDTX 271033 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 633 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-271042-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 142327
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
627 pm est Thu nov 14 2019

Aviation
Stratus is locked in place over southeast michigan as very strong
midlevel subsidence inversion is down to approximately 2000 ft agl.

Corridor of downstream moisture flux off of lake michigan was
providing for some waves of br hz with tiny droplet drizzle on radar
late this afternoon. Latest reflectivity images have been more clean
and not showing any activity. Strength of subsidence inversion
supports persistence of stratus throughout the first half of the
night. Significant moisture advection is then forecasted the latter
half of the night with axis of 900-775mb moisture streaming directly
into the area in response to sharp PV anomaly and low pressure
system tracking across canada. The moisture will just reinforce
cloud strong static stability in place from 3.0 to 12.0 kft agl.

Cloud to persist throughout Friday. Surface wind shift to track
through the area from approximately 19-21z Fri with wind veering to
the northwest.

For dtw... MVFR stratus to hold throughout the night. No drizzle
anticipated at this time. MVFR stratus Friday. Wind shift to nw
(310) at approximately 20z.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Friday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 343 pm est Thu nov 14 2019
discussion...

light westerly flow around the periphery of the modified arctic
airmass in which southeast michigan currently resides supporting
widespread lake enhanced stratus and patchy fog freezing mist. With
forcing and moisture insufficient to generate actual hydrometeors,
nothing more than a very light glaze is expected on some elevated
surfaces. With no change to existing airmass or background forcing,
stratus will hold firm through at least the first half of tonight.

The lead energy ushering in the last hurrah of the aggregate polar
vortex that has been the prominent feature over the last week is
noted over northwest ontario this afternoon. Eastward migration of
the occluding cyclone in the gulf of alaska during the previous 48
hours can be thanked for nudging the downstream waveguide just east
enough to steer this feature the attendant very cold air into
eastern canada. Primary impact locally will be backing low level
winds that will diminish overlake instability during the night
leading to a potential west-to-east clearing trend. The window for
clearing late tonight into early Friday will be short-lived,
however, as the cold front stretching from north dakota into ontario
settles through the lower peninsula during the day. Loss of forcing
over the central great lakes will allow the front to orient parallel
to the mean flow, diminishing cold advection and slowing forward
progress. Even so, gradual veering of wind in the presence of slowly
deepening colder air will reintroduce potential for stratus as early
as Friday morning. Modest warming of the resident thermal profile
compared to today suggest high temps just a few degrees warmer, low
to mid 30s, under continued cloud cover. Temperatures, especially
highs, remain below normal into the weekend as the strong arctic
high drives flow from northerly by late Friday to northeast by
Saturday.

Dissipation of the aleutian low relaxes the downstream flow over
north america, and the polar low is noted pivoting back into the
high latitudes as as result. Jet streak racing across the northeast
pacific today is shearing off a piece of the resident deep pv
reservoir there. This energy will amplify in the lee of the rockies
late this weekend, with limited potential given relatively fast-
moving flow. A round of unimpactful snow showers seems most likely
at this time - perhaps an inch or so across the north. The more
noteworthy development is the the 12z ec GFS flooding this
developing trough with pacific energy and reestablishing a longwave
trough over the eastern us to start next week. Even as west coast
height falls threaten to pump up height falls over the central conus
midweek, global nwp funnel more high latitude energy into the
northern us as around building alaska ridging. The modeled
transition out of and back into blocked flow over the north pacific
and the seeming dependence on model handling of high latitude energy
doesn't inspire confidence in medium range model performance, but
certainly no discernible signal can be teased out for a return to
normal temps at this time.

Marine...

small craft advisories will continue until 10am Friday as southwest
flow begins to relax. Winds will then veer to the northwest
throughout the day Friday as a cold front pushes across the central
great lakes. Winds will continue rotating to northeasterly Friday
night due to the presence of a high pressure moving southeast across
ontario. Gusts in the immediate wake of the cold front Friday night
may approach gale force, but generally expect 30 knots to be the
rule. Building waves in this developing flow will likely lead to
additional small craft advisory conditions by Friday evening as
onshore flow pushes this high wave action into the nearshore waters.

Winds will weaken during the weekend as broad high pressure setups
over the central great lakes region.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for lhz421-422-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi107 min SW 5.1 G 9.9 33°F 1023.4 hPa (+1.4)
AGCM4 44 mi47 min 33°F 42°F1022.4 hPa (+1.2)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi47 min SW 13 G 14 34°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi47 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 1024.1 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi52 minSW 710.00 miOvercast32°F28°F87%1023.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi54 minWSW 65.00 miFog/Mist30°F25°F82%1023.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi54 minWSW 69.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1023.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi54 minSSW 87.00 miOvercast32°F25°F75%1024.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi54 minWSW 99.00 miOvercast34°F26°F73%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9
G14
S11SW8S7SW7SW7S5SW5SW5SW5SW6SW6SW6SW5SW5W5W6W5W4W6W5SW4SW5
1 day agoCalmW4SW3CalmSW3W5W5W5SW3SW3SW3SW3SW4CalmCalmS7S7S9S9S7S7S9S6
G14
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2 days agoN9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.