Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:42PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 1:55 PM EST (18:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 9:29PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0067.000000t0000z-191230t1300z/ 754 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 800 am est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The showers have moved out of the area. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4236 8286 4239 8294 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4302 8244 4297 8241 time...mot...loc 1254z 216deg 43kt 4352 8232 4307 8173
LCZ422 Expires:201912301304;;156663 FZUS73 KDTX 301254 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ422-460-301304-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 281750 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1250 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

AVIATION.

Weak cyclonic low level flow continues this afternoon over Lower Michigan to the south of a surface trough/weak cold front. The pattern maintains MVFR ceiling that becomes borderline VFR as daytime warming builds mixing depth. The added cloud circulation in a steep boundary layer environment also helps produce some snow showers capable of a brief MVFR restriction into early evening. The surface trough/front weakens while moving southward tonight resulting in a weak north to northeast wind shift across the region through sunrise Wednesday. Borderline MVFR/VFR stratocu lingers as the wind direction brings some added clouds from Lake Huron through Wednesday morning and even into the afternoon as current conditions show plentiful coverage within high pressure north of the lake.

For DTW . MVFR ceiling breaks into VFR at times during the afternoon while remaining below 5000 ft. Precipitation is limited to a brief mix of light snow or rain showers as temperature remains above freezing through the day.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 306 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

DISCUSSION .

Conditions today largely a carbon copy of that noted yesterday, as southeast Michigan remains immersed within an environment characterized by deep low level moisture and void of any meaningful temperature advection. This ensures low stratus holds firm within a prevailing low level north-northwest flow, while daytime temperatures again hover within 32 to 36 degree range. Shortwave noted on water vapor lifting across lake Superior early this morning on pace to translate southeast across northern sections of the lower peninsula this afternoon and early evening. This will provide a glancing shot of modest mid level ascent locally, but offer little in terms of deeper layer moisture advection. This suggests a limited response in terms of possible precipitation production, perhaps requiring the added moisture contribution from a weakly unstable upstream overlake environment. Forecast will continue to simply call for flurries at times today through early tonight, leaning on recent model soundings which indicate the top of the moist layer will reside within a cold enough layer to maintain ice in the column versus remaining in liquid form and translating into pockets of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Subtle cold air advection in the wake of this perturbation will ease readings down into the lower to middle 20s by Wednesday morning.

Shortwave ridging settles across the region Wednesday, as surface high pressure takes residence over Ontario. The resulting increase in mid level stability within a gradually veering low level flow will maintain benign and seasonable weather conditions. Moist layer firmly lodged beneath the strengthening inversion likely struggles to budge during the daylight period as dry/warm air advection is lacking, ensuring another day of mostly cloudy conditions. This stagnant environment leaves similar conditions for the Thursday period - prospects of witnessing any clearing in low level easterly flow perhaps negated by some increase in mid cloud tied to the passage of another minor impulse.

Inland penetration of the north pacific upper jet late this week will initiate a more progressive and potentially energetic northern stream flow late in the forecast period. Shortwave energy anchored within the exit region of the inbound jet axis will arrive across the great lakes within the Friday night and Saturday window. This period does bear watching, as the underlying pattern could allow for a more dynamic mid level response as these height falls potentially engage favorable upper jet and frontal positioning. A more meaningful clipper system would subsequently offer a period of accumulating snow during this time. Temperatures will continue to reside on the warmer side of average through next weekend.

MARINE .

Relatively light northwest flow will gradually veer to the northeast by Wednesday then east by Thursday as high pressure slowly slides across the northern Great Lakes during the week. Just some light lake induced flurries will be possible through Wednesday, then dry until the next system moves in for the weekend. Wave heights overall will remain on the timid side for this time of year.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi55 min NNW 4.1 G 7 33°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.7)
AGCM4 44 mi55 min 34°F 35°F1015.6 hPa (-0.9)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi55 min W 9.9 G 11 33°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi55 min 34°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.9)24°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi60 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast34°F27°F77%1016.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi62 minNW 710.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1016.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi62 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast34°F26°F73%1017 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi62 minW 410.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%1017.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi62 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast36°F25°F64%1017 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW6W6NW6W4W5W3W4W3W4NW3W3NW6W8W4W6W3NW4W3W3NW5NW6NW6W7
1 day agoSW10W7W6W9
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W8W6W6W6W6W7W7W8NW9NW7W4W8NW6NW5NW5NW5NW4NW8
2 days agoSW7SW7SW7SW6SW4SW5SW4SW4SW4SW4SW4SW6SW8W9W5SW8SW6SW5SW6SW9SW8SW8SW8SW9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.