Monday, April6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 8:06PM Monday April 6, 2020 12:05 AM EDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:27PMMoonset 5:42AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0067.000000t0000z-191230t1300z/ 754 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 800 am est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The showers have moved out of the area. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4236 8286 4239 8294 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4302 8244 4297 8241 time...mot...loc 1254z 216deg 43kt 4352 8232 4307 8173
LCZ422 Expires:201912301304;;588067 FZUS73 KDTX 301254 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ422-460-301304-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 060350 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

AVIATION.

Expecting prevailing SKC tonight. A very dry air mass with efficient mixing this afternoon will preclude much risk of fog. Entrance region to upper level jetlet will migrate east of due north from Michigan Monday. This will allow warm advection to approach from the west late in the day. Center of coherent midlevel anticyclone will pass through Southeast Michigan 15-18Z. Gradient of midlevel theta e will eventually push into Southeast Michigan between 21-00Z which will result in a midcloud deck at 6.0 ft agl. The low level will be slow to saturate with cloud below 6.0 ft agl possibly waiting until after 06Z Tuesday. Low confidence in location of initial precipitation push Monday night as some signal suggests south of the state.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 324 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

Aggressively building surface high pressure effectively eroded early day grunge and is providing Southeast Michigan a delayed rise in temperatures well into the 50s courtesy of full insolation for the remainder of the afternoon. High pressure will reside directly overhead for the balance of the night allowing effective radiational cooling to commence immediately upon loss of diurnal heating. Lows will easily fall into the 20s given current dewpoint readings, which is in line with all MOS guidance. The extent of stratus and fog over Lake Huron through midday has posed some concern for an intrusion of the marine layer overnight, but the last couple of hours have seen a rapid transition to clear skies over the lake which greatly reduces the probability of redevelopment.

Clear skies continue into Monday. Temperatures likely to top out a couple degrees warmer than today as another day of strong insolation further modifies the existing airmass in the absence of meaningful advection. This also begins the time of year when lake shadows can expect to be notably colder than all other locations. Advancing moisture reservoir and low-level baroclinic zone clearly evident on channel 2 imagery this afternoon in the form of expanding stratus over the southern Plains extending northeast along the front into the Lower Great Lakes. This low-level moisture will pivot into the area from the southwest as isentropic ascent increases Monday afternoon into Monday night. A modest nocturnal low-level jet will support showers and a few thunderstorms along the moisture gradient, most likely south of M59, but both moisture and instability will be marginal. Position of this boundary near the southern state border thunder - if any - over SE Michigan during this time will be elevated.

Weak height falls approaching from the west on Tuesday will result in a considerable diminishing of the surface gradient as surface low becomes fairly expansive/diffuse over the region. Forecast soundings indicate mid-level moisture will be poor throughout the day due to developing subsidence. This in all likelihood leaves Southeast Michigan socked in beneath a strengthening frontal inversion with extensive low clouds and periods of fog/drizzle. Modest elevated instability is noted but will be inaccessible in the absence of larger scale forcing. Highs will range from the upper 40s to low 50s within the extensive clouds to potentially the 60s near the Ohio border. Strong model consensus that a shortwave embedded within a transient period of WNW flow aloft will usher this airmass east on Tuesday night. Release of aforementioned mid-level instability will be possible during this time, though mid-level moisture will continue to be lacking, so the mention of thunder has been carried forward.

MARINE .

High pressure centered over the Wisconsin sector of Lake Michigan continues to advect drier air over the central Great Lakes this afternoon. The expansion of this dry airmass is well illustrated via satellite imagery as residual marine stratus over southern Lake Huron quickly erodes eastward. Expect entrainment to lead to final clearing over US waters by 20Z. Thereafter, benign maritime conditions will continue into the overnight period with light prevailing winds gradually veering S/SE, holding below 10 knots into Monday morning. Dry conditions persist early on Monday as the center of the high treks through the Thumb before the low-level ridge begins to compress over southern Ontario Monday evening. Focus then shifts toward an inbound low Monday night as current model consensus suggests a glancing shot of isentropic showers preceding more dynamic showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening after the low makes further inroads. Still some uncertainty as to the exact track of the low at this time. High pressure then lifts out of the eastern Plains making a brief appearance on Wednesday before wet conditions ramp-up Wednesday night.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 323 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2020

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi66 min NNE 1 G 2.9 41°F 1022.7 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 44 mi54 min 34°F 40°F1021.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi66 min ENE 4.1 G 4.1 42°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi48 min SE 1.9 G 2.9

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair41°F32°F72%1022.7 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi73 minESE 510.00 miA Few Clouds42°F30°F65%1022 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair40°F32°F73%1022.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi73 minESE 48.00 miFair42°F34°F73%1022.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi73 minESE 310.00 miFair43°F37°F80%1022.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N8N6N5NW7N4N4N7N6N4N3N6NE5NE3N4CalmNE4CalmE6E8NE7E4CalmCalm
1 day agoNE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4SW3SW5S4S3SW6SW3W8W7NW5NW7NW5N6
2 days agoNE4CalmCalmCalmW3W3NW3W4CalmN3NE6N8N7NW7N3N5N4NW5NE6NE8E6E6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.