Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:16PM Thursday July 2, 2020 1:52 PM EDT (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 2:46AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0020.000000t0000z-200612t0330z/ 1028 Pm Edt Thu Jun 11 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4204 8326 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8294 4244 8291 4255 8289 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4256 8261 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4231 8307 4224 8313 4201 8314 time...mot...loc 0227z 298deg 36kt 4261 8238 4245 8262 4233 8288 4223 8347
LCZ422 Expires:202006120237;;144203 FZUS73 KDTX 120228 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1028 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020 LCZ422-120237-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 021734 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 134 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

AVIATION.

Strong high pressure will continue to remain in place across the airspace with VFR conditions. Daytime heating and mixing will promote scattered cu for the southern TAF sites through mid afternoon before lake breeze off Lake Erie helps mix away any lingering low clouds. Otherwise, just occasional passing cirrus. Light winds will prevail through the period out of the NW around 5 knots, with the exception of this afternoon where lake breezes will favor NE winds at KMBS and turning SE at KDTW, KDET, and KYIP.

For DTW . No aviation concerns through the period. SE lake breeze moves in 19z-20z and persists into the evening hours before light NW flow becomes reestablished overnight. Cu bases will remain above 5 kft this afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

DISCUSSION .

Blocking pattern in the mid to upper levels continues with ridging over the Plains into the western Great Lakes and slowly evolving troughs over the west and east coasts. The surface high pressure remains rooted over the central/western Great Lakes today will allow for more above normal temperatures under mostly sunny skies. Mixing depths at or above 6kft with 850 mb temperatures around 20C and 950mb temperatures around 25C will support high temperatures slightly higher to around 90 this afternoon. Light onshore flow will again keep temperatures on the lakeshores a few degrees cooler. Stout cap remaining in place will also keep conditions dry throughout today.

While ridging remains into the upcoming weekend, the east coast closed low will be moving offshore driven by a digging trough through eastern Canada. This digging trough will actuall allow lowering heights at 500 mb to creep into the central Great Lakes as the ridge axis is pushed slightly to the west by Friday morning. Models then advertise a weak shortwave over the western Great Lakes moving around the ridge and overhead Friday afternoon accompanied by a plume of higher 850-700 mb theta-e. This feature and enhanced moisture along with convergence associated with lake breezes may be enough to overcome the cap and support some isolated to scattered convection. Dewpoints around the mid 60s under diurnal heating would yield MLCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg. While instability will be sufficient, lapse rates will be weak (~5-6 C/km) and shear will be minimal (~20 knots). So any showers/thunderstorms that may overcome the cap will not be very organized and strength will be limited. Low confidence forecast at this time, but will maintain low end PoPs of 15-20 percent.

Little change in the airmass will continue to support high temperatures mostly in the low 90s through the holiday weekend. Cannot completely rule out isolated diurnally driven convection along lake breezes over the weekend, especially on Sunday. However, there does not appear to be any clear signal right now that would support any PoP mention above 15 percent. Dewpoints for this stretch will range in the low to mid 60s during the afternoons. This will keep heat indices somewhat in check, but it will still be a good stretch of hot days in the low 90s with some elevated humidity and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Ridge axis drifts slightly to the east into the Central Great Lakes early next week. The result will be slightly warmer 850 temperatures supporting highs in the mid 90s with the potential for higher dewpoints arriving mid-week. Will need to keep an eye on any shortwaves crossing through the ridge that could lead to showers and thunderstorms as well.

MARINE .

A ridge of high pressure will continue to reside across the Great Lakes area which will result in favorable marine conditions through the end of the week. An uptick in wind speeds around 20 knots will be possible late tonight into early Friday with the northwest fetch centered over northern Lake Huron. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . IRL DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi53 min SSE 7 G 8 77°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 36 mi53 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 74°F1016.1 hPa (+0.2)
AGCM4 44 mi53 min 83°F 69°F1016.7 hPa (+0.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi63 min SE 9.9 G 9.9 78°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi53 min ENE 7 G 8.9 82°F 1017.4 hPa (+0.0)60°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi58 minNNE 35.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze88°F56°F35%1017.6 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi60 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds87°F55°F35%1016.3 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi60 minSE 810.00 miFair85°F64°F51%1016.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi60 minNNW 510.00 miA Few Clouds88°F59°F38%1016.7 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi60 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds89°F61°F39%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVLL

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE3CalmE4E7NE8NE7E4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW5W4NW5N4CalmN6
1 day agoNE3SE3NE4CalmE9E8E5E7E4E6CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4E3
2 days agoE7CalmE6E4E7S4SE3SE3E8E7E5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4NE3NE5E4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.