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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 401 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 092337 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 637 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023


AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected now that initial cold fropa has occurred and showers/embedded thunder have shifted east of the terminals.
Secondary, strongest front to the northwest will drop into the area overnight as low pressure shifts to James Bay. This front will bring wraparound low level moisture back into the area with lower VFR and then MVFR cigs overnight into Sunday. The passage of this secondary feature will also bring a shift in winds from southwest to northwest by Sunday afternoon. While a few flurries may occur by Sunday within the increasingly cold west to northwest flow, a bulk of the activity will remain well west and northwest of the terminals.

For DTW...Cigs under 5kft will work into the area overnight and persist on Sunday. Southwest winds will hold into Sunday with gusts back to 15-20 knots by mid morning before veering to northwest late in the forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Moderate for ceilings below 5000 feet overnight, high on Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 332 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

DISCUSSION...

Potent shortwave marked by 100 knot winds near 500 mb via 09.12 KILX RAOB is embedded within an amplified longwave trough axis extending from Ontario to the Texas Panhandle. This accelerated shortwave has dug into northern Lower Michigan, but its lagged jet dynamics are just now scraping through central-southern Lower.
Uncharacteristically warm south-southwesterly flow tied to the wave has sent temperatures well above average today as the DTW ASOS unofficially hit 63F between 1 and 3 PM today. If this reading holds, it would shatter the previous record from 1946 by 5F.
Meanwhile, a dynamic cold front is currently progressing across Southeast Michigan producing gusty winds and a line of showers before eventually clearing to the east this evening. Prior obs have indicated 40-50 knot peak gusts are occuring along the frontal slope as inbound cold advection activates mixing into the 850 mb LLJ. The influx of colder air also steepens LLLRs to near 7 C/km (0-3 km), and with CIN eroded, additional embedded thunder is likely during the next few hours where MLCAPE builds above 150 J/kg. Part of the Hi-Res suite has demonstrated a more bullish trend in QPF along the southern flank of the front this evening, particularly along/south of I-94 (see 09.12Z ARW and NAM 3km). This is supported by 3 PM radar imagery which shows some organization along the portion of the line closest to the Ohio Border. Given more impressive 850-700 mb ThetaE convergence across this area and notable convective depths (Echo Tops above 15 kft), added thunder to the forecast through this afternoon.

Post-frontal environment characterized by a cooling column, westerly flow, and a 15 degree drop in dewpoints can be expected tonight as thicknesses collapse. A cold-core upper low works across the Great Lakes tonight, but the disturbance will phase with the resident jet axis drawing an inbound lobe of PV northeast. This should help keep conditions mainly dry tonight. Lake effect snow potential is now more favorable Sunday as cyclonic northwesterly flow sets up. Snow bands will still struggle to reach the forecast area since the column appears quite dry above 6 kft AGL and layer winds will continue to weaken throughout the day. Expect only trace accumulations of melting snowfall on grassy/elevated surfaces as temperatures largely hover in upper 30s (to near 40F) Sunday. A few lingering flurries are possible Sunday night before winds veer NNW and flow trajectories take on an anticyclonic curvature.

Height rises commence Monday afternoon into Tuesday with dry conditions under ridging configuration. A clipper low concurrently tracks across the southern shores of Hudson Bay with limited ascent/moisture locally. Zonal flow arrangement ensures seasonable and dry conditions Wednesday followed by a sheared longwave ridge to close out the week while surface high pressure becomes anchored over the southern Ohio Valley. A significant increase in temperatures is also possible Thursday and/or Friday as 850 mb temps are projected to climb back into the upper single digits Celsius per ECMWF and CMC. Upward revisions of highs into the 50s may be needed if current model trends hold.

MARINE...

A strong low pressure system will lift north and east of the Straits into Ontario through the remainder of the afternoon as this systems cold front sweeps across southeast Michigan. The gusty winds along the front will quickly fall off over the next few hours after its passage. Small Craft Advisory conditions will fall off for most of the nearshores this late this afternoon with the exception of Outer Saginaw Bay where wave heights remain elevated enough into tomorrow.
Cold air advection behind the lead front will result in unstable conditions over the waters as winds turn northwest along a secondary front tomorrow morning/afternoon. Wind gusts approach 30 knots on Sunday which will continue to maintain higher wave action across Outer Saginaw Bay and portions of the Thumb. Brief lull in stronger winds expected Monday before another strong low pressure system swings across northern Ontario and Hudson Bay late Monday night into early Tuesday. This system will bring another round of potential gales under southwest to west flow beginning Tuesday morning across Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LHZ421.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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