Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pleasant Prairie, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:15PM Sunday March 29, 2020 12:09 AM CDT (05:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until 4 am cdt Sunday...
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am cdt Sunday...
.gale warning in effect from 4 am cdt Sunday through Sunday evening...
Rest of tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots veering west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Chance of showers through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then veering northwest early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers through around midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon, then easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:202003291000;;232988 FZUS53 KMKX 290406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-291000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pleasant Prairie, WI
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location: 42.52, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 290443 AAC AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1143 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

UPDATE.

Storms will exit the east not long after midnight, with a wedge of clearing skies moving through early tonight. More clouds later tonight, with showers likely on Sunday as the low moves through.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS).

Fog and low clouds will hang on until the storms sweep through within the next couple hours and winds become south to southwest. Will see a period of VFR into early tonight, with low clouds then moving back in late tonight into Sunday morning as the surface low treks across Wisconsin. Scattered showers, gusty winds, and low clouds are then expected to persist through the day Sunday.

Low level wind shear will remain possible into early tonight . mainly until around 07Z.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 852 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020)

UPDATE .

Severe storm potential thinking remains similar to previous discussion update. Hail and wind are the biggest concerns at the moment . but a lot of shear out there, so still watching for quick spin-ups.

MARINE .

Fog will remain an issue across roughly the southern half of Lake Michigan into tonight, before winds shift to the southwest and bring in a cooler/drier airmass. Will keep the Small Craft Advisory going until later tonight while winds ramp up. The Gale Warning for the nearshore and southern half of the open waters later tonight into Sunday evening still looks reasonable.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 704 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020)

UPDATE .

Still watching the thunderstorm potential this evening. Best chance to sneak some surface based instability into the area remains in the southwest forecast area. This area will have the higher chance for a tornado/wind threat in addition to a hail threat, with hail being the bigger concern elsewhere. Storms will struggle as they head farther east/northeast given the cooler/stable airmass from the lake under east winds. Should see storms reach the southwest by around 8 pm, exiting the northeast by around midnight.

Fog will linger in the east likely until the storms sweep through and winds become south to southwest early tonight.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) .

Thunderstorms are expect to continue to develop regionally this evening, moving generally southwest to northeast through the forecast area from roughly 01Z to 05Z. Best chance for severe storms will be in the southwest forecast area and toward Illinois.

Fog and low clouds will hang on until the storms sweep through and winds become south to southwest. May see a period of VFR late evening into early tonight, with low clouds then moving back in late tonight into Sunday morning as the surface low treks across Wisconsin. Scattered showers, gusty winds, and low clouds are then expected to persist through the day Sunday.

Still looks like a period of low level wind shear will be possible this evening into early tonight . mainly from around 01Z to 07Z.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Tonight . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

Some 700mb warm air advection is responsible for the ongoing rain over southern and central Wisconsin. This will continue to track northeast though the rest of the afternoon. Fog is also impacting portions of southeast Wisconsin with the lowest visibilites closer to Lake Michigan. This fog will continue before clearing behind the front tonight.

Once the first round clears, warm air advection will continue to spark off showers and a few storms. Our main focus this evening will be the arrival of the occluded front which will pop off some surface based storms. This will be the focus of our severe storm potential. Shear will be increasing this evening along with CAPE around 500J/kg ahead of the front. In this high shear low CAPE environment we could see a few strong to severe storms mainly southwest and south of Madison. Main threat will be large hail and strong winds. Can't rule out an isolated tornado looking at helicity values on the hodograph in southwest Wisconsin. We'll be keeping a close eye on the frontal boundaries over the next few hours as they will impact the severe potential. At the moment it looks like the warm front will stay just south of the area. Storms are expected to clear the area between 10pm and midnight.

Sunday through Sunday Night . Forecast Confidence is High.

With the low pressure system over the state Sunday expect cloudy, wet, and windy conditions through the day. Southwest winds will gradually shift to the west and then northwest throughout the day. Strongest winds are expected Sunday afternoon with gusts of 35-45mph. This could be an issue for any outdoor tents. As the low pressure system shifts northeast expect winds to shift to the northwest Sunday night and gradually become lighter. Rain showers will also diminish with gradually clearing skies.

LONG TERM .

Monday through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence High .

North winds will slowly diminish on Monday as the surface low continues east and high pressure builds into the area. Winds will take on more of a northeasterly direction later in the day, bringing cooler air in from Lake Michigan, and keeping readings quite a bit cooler closer to the lake. Some lake effect cloud cover is also possible. Highs are currently expected to reach the low to mid 50s west, but only low to mid 40s closer to Lake Michigan.

Relatively cool and quite conditions are expected for Tuesday and most of Wednesday as well, with highs in the 40s and low 50s.

Wednesday Night into the Weekend . Forecast Confidence Low to Medium .

The next chance for rain will develop later Wednesday as a surface trough and frontal boundary move into the area. The front may stall out just to our south Thursday, with rain chances continuing into Friday. Still lots of uncertainty with timing and structure with this system, so overall confidence is on the low side. Once this system clears the area, northwest flow will keep temperatures around or just a little below average heading into the weekend.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

LIFR and IFR ceilings continue with LIFR and IFR visibilities towards the lake. Will see some showers and a few thunderstorms continue off/on this afternoon before our main round of storms moves through 00Z-04Z this evening from west to east. Best chance for any severe storms will be southwest and south of Madison with large hail, strong winds, and maybe an isolated tornado. Once storms clear expect ceilings and visibilities to increase to VFR. Sunday morning MVFR ceilings return along with light rain showers.

MARINE .

Dense fog over the southern half of the lake will clear late tonight as the front moves through. Behind the front southwest winds will increase with gales expected Sunday morning and into Sunday evening over the southern half of the lake. Winds will shift to the west and then northwest Sunday night and gradually become lighter as high pressure moves into the region.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ080-643>646-669- 671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for LMZ080-643>646- 669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ643>646.



Update . DDV Tonight through Sunday night and Aviation/Marine . RAH Monday through Saturday . Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 5 mi70 min SSE 16 G 22 46°F 997.6 hPa (-2.4)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 44 mi40 min S 25 G 28 59°F 59°F
OKSI2 44 mi130 min NE 5.1 G 7 64°F
CNII2 47 mi40 min S 15 G 17 64°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi77 minSE 120.25 miFog52°F50°F93%997.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL7 mi75 minSE 100.25 miFog47°F46°F97%997.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI17 mi77 minSE 19 G 290.25 miFog and Breezy49°F48°F97%998 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8SE6SE10NE7NE9N6NE17E12E13E11E9E6E3E7NE9NE12E12E14E14
G18
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G27
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1 day agoN5NE7NE8N7NE5N7NE3E5E11E8E10NE12E8E11E9E9NE11E10NE13NE12E15E14NE5E10
2 days agoSW7SW7W10W6W6W8NW6NE7
G18
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E7NE8NE11NE10NE10N10N10N5N9N10NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.