Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pleasant Prairie, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:28PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 8:42 PM CDT (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:33AMMoonset 3:53PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 706 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 15 2020
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the evening, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight backing northeast early in the morning. Showers with Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering west early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing south late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:202007160400;;908495 FZUS53 KMKX 160007 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-160400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pleasant Prairie, WI
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location: 42.52, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 152315 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 615 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

UPDATE.

Stronger convection has pushed north of the area early this evening, with mostly just light to moderate rain continuing. Some embedded thunderstorms will remain possible, along with pockets of heavier rain. Precipitation will come to an end from west to east later this evening.

Will be watching for fog potential later tonight, especially across the western half or so of the forecast area. Clearing skies, light winds, and abundant moisture should provide a good environment for fog development.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS).

MVFR and occasional IFR will continue early this evening with areas of rain and thunderstorms. Precipitation will push out of the area from west to east during the mid and late evening hours, but will likely see an area of low stratus and/or fog develop later tonight, especially across the western portion of the area. Still a fair amount of uncertainty as to how widespread and dense any fog will be, but at least IFR seems like a good bet for Madison at this point, with LIFR possible. Winds will continue to back to the north and the northwest with time.

Lingering low clouds or fog will dissipate within a couple hours of sunrise on Thursday, with pleasant conditions expected for the rest of the day.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 342 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Tomorrow . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High .

As the afternoon hours have continued, the possibility of a severe storm has dwindled as better instability and upper level forcing have not come together. An MCV to the south has also forced a lot of the WAA that was present this morning eastward, effectively keeping a lid on widespread higher instability as well. A heavy rain threat still exists as PWAT values still remain in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will continue along the frontal boundary into this evening and should come to an end some time before daybreak tomorrow as the frontal boundary sinks south and eastward out of our area.

High pressure will move in behind the front and promote gradually clearing skies tomorrow. Despite the passing of the front, humidity will still stick around.

LONG TERM .

Thursday Night through Saturday . Forecast Confidence is High .

Surface high pressure centered over IL and low amplitude mid-level ridging across the Upper Midwest will continue to keep things quiet and dry overnight Thursday and into Friday. This pattern is expected to gradually shift east through the day as an upper-level trough begins to dig across the northern Rockies. Nonetheless, can expect warmer temps on Friday with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s and even warmer temps for Saturday topping off in the low 90s. The 12z GFS, ECMWF, and NAM are progging a shortwave trough to develop ahead of the main longwave trough and push across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest overnight Friday into Saturday. More favorable dynamics from this wave will likely lift north across central MN into northern WI. Thus, fairly quiet conditions are likely to continue into Saturday for southern WI. However, with the return of southerly flow advecting warmer temps (low- level WAA) and more moisture (dewpoints in the 70s) into the area along with the GFS and NAM hinting at a few impulses of mid- level energy sneaking a bit further south, can not rule out some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Morning shower chances will likely be driven by the initial push of WAA, while any afternoon activity will be more diurnal driven.

Sunday through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Better shower and thunderstorms chances will be on Sunday as another stronger shortwave trough and associated surface cold front dig into the Upper Midwest. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase as the cold front pushes southward across WI, but models still vary on exact timing of the frontal passage. With the latest 12z model suite, thinking we will general see a bulk of the showers/storms and a northwesterly wind shift in the afternoon into the evening. Showers should taper off from northwest to southeast overnight as drier and slightly cooler air is progged to filter in behind the front. Then a surface high is expected to build in and work its way across the region early next week.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

Thunderstorm activity is currently occuring over south-central WI, but the possibility of more widespread thunderstorm activity is beginning to wane with the best chance of thunder to the southeast. Rain, however, is still likely this evening, mainly over SE WI. Drops to MVFR and variations of IFR cigs will be possible into the overnight hours as a frontal boundary sinks southward.

MARINE .

A weak cold front will slowly move south across Lake Michigan tonight, with widespread rain and thunderstorms coming to an end before daybreak. Steady northerly winds will persist through Thursday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Boxell Tonight/Thursday and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Thursday Night through Wednesday . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 4 mi43 min N 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 69°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 5 mi103 min WSW 6 G 8 73°F 1014.2 hPa (+1.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 11 mi103 min Calm G 1.9 78°F
45174 28 mi33 min NNW 7.8 G 12 75°F 75°F1 ft1013.5 hPa71°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 34 mi33 min NNE 14 G 16 69°F
45013 40 mi43 min NNE 14 G 18 69°F 70°F4 ft1015.9 hPa (+1.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 44 mi43 min N 8 G 8 75°F 74°F
CNII2 47 mi28 min NNE 4.1 G 6 72°F 68°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi50 minNW 72.00 miHeavy Rain70°F64°F84%1014.8 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL7 mi48 minNNW 510.00 miLight Rain69°F66°F93%1013.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI17 mi50 minN 68.00 miLight Rain71°F69°F94%1015.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S4S4SE6S10SE5S7S7SW9S10CalmSE3S7S5SW4S7S8SW4SW5S5S4S7S6NW7
1 day agoSE5SE4S4S4S3S3CalmSW3SW4S4S5S7SW3SW6S9SW9
G16
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3W4CalmCalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE3E5E9SE9SE10E10SE7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.