Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:08PM Friday October 18, 2019 6:57 PM CDT (23:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 11:47AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 18 2019
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering south early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of showers through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201910190400;;913035 FZUS53 KMKX 182206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-190400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 182322
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
622 pm cdt Fri oct 18 2019

Update Modest sly sfc winds and warm advection will keep low
temps in the 40s tnt. An upper trough will approach the area sat
afternoon with a strong low well to the north over SRN canada. The
sfc-700 mb frontogenesis will be weakening as it moves across the
region. Thus a north to south band of lgt rain will move into
south central wi for the early to middle afternoon and weaken as
it moves across ERN wi. Either very little to no rain for far ern
wi especially south of mke.

Aviation(00z tafs) A sly LLJ of 40 kts may result in llws to
south central wi beginning this evening and lasting through the
night. Clouds will gradually increase from west to east on sat.

A north to south band of showers and CIGS of 1-3 kft will move
slowly ewd across SRN wi during the afternoon.

Prev discussion (issued 349 pm cdt Fri oct 18 2019)
short term...

tonight through Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

High clouds continue to stream across southern wisconsin this
afternoon. Southeast winds are gusting up to 25 mph at times. This
is a result of the tight pressure gradient between exiting high
pressure and a low pressure trough approaching from the dakotas.

Temperatures have risen into the lower 60s toward southwest wi and
into the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

Winds will diminish a little overnight due to the inversion, but
winds just above the surface will be in excess of 35 kt with the
low level jet overhead. Low temperatures will be in the lower to
mid 40s. The surface low will move from eastern sd to southwest
ontario overnight. The associated surface front will therefore be
lifting northeast through southern wisconsin during the day
Saturday. As the low pulls further away, the frontal trough will
weaken as it reaches southeast wisconsin.

Expect steady southerly winds ahead of the surface trough Saturday
morning. The trough will be moving through southern wi later than
previous forecasts suggested, with the associated showers reaching
madison just after noon and then clearing the lakeshore areas
around sunset as the showers dissipate. Most people should see a
small amount of rain over a 2 to 3-hr period tomorrow, with
highest amounts up to a tenth of an inch west of madison.

Light winds and clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop
into the upper 30s from madison and west, so patchy frost is
possible in those areas.

Long term...

Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

Sunday will be the nicest day of the weekend. There should be mid
and high clouds in the area, but quiet and mild fall weather with
highs in the lower 60s inland from the lakeshore.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Surface low pressure will be occluding over the upper midwest on
Monday in response to an upper trough digging into the region.

Strong warm air advection ahead of the surface trough will give us
some weak instability, so a few thunderstorms are possible ahead
of the frontal passage. Breezy winds ahead of the front will keep
temperatures mild in the morning hours, especially near the lake.

The precip amounts have been trending downward for southern
wi for this event. This now looks like a quick round of showers
and a few storms Monday morning, with showers ending along the
cold front from west to east Monday afternoon and perhaps into the
early evening.

Dry air will wrap into southern wi behind the front by Monday
evening. We may see some drizzle lingering with low clouds Monday
night. Scattered showers are expected later Monday night through
most of Tuesday as cyclonic flow lingers over the region. Expect
gusty southwest to west winds Monday night through Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

That upper low responsible for Monday's system over wi will sit
over hudson bay for much of next week. A weak shortwave trough
will slide through wi Wednesday and cause clouds and maybe a few
showers. Another more amplified shortwave trough is expected to
swing through the midwest Thursday into Thursday night. This
should interact with an 850mb warm frontal boundary over northern
il to bring showers. Precip associated with this feature may
affect southern wi as well. Mentioned small chances for showers
in the forecast for now.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

thin cirrus is streaming across southern wi this afternoon and
this will persist into the evening. Look for the steady southerly
winds to diminish this evening.

Strong winds just above the ground due to the low level jet will
develop later this evening for inland areas and diminish Saturday
morning. Thus, llws is included in the msn TAF but left out of the
other tafs.

A weakening front will track from west to east through southern
wisconsin Saturday afternoon. The timing of the showers associated
with this front is later than previous forecasts. Showers will be
dissipating as they reach lake michigan.

Marine...

breezy southerly winds will cause higher waves over mainly the
north half of the lake through Saturday. Thus a small craft
advisory is in effect for port washington to sheboygan for this
period.

Generally, conditions will quiet down into Sunday with waves and
winds settling. Then a strong low pressure system will begin to
push in overnight Sunday into Monday initially bringing breezy
southeasterly winds that will approach gale force. The front with
this system will push through overnight Monday however winds will
remain breezy from the west with continuing potential for gale
force gusts through Tuesday. Winds will settle some by Wednesday
morning but will remain somewhat breezy.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm cdt Saturday for lmz643.

Update... Gehring
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... Cronce
Saturday night through Friday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi57 min SSE 12 G 15 50°F 1013.5 hPa (-2.1)
45186 27 mi37 min ESE 12 G 16 50°F 49°F2 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi47 min SSE 8.9 G 11 50°F
45174 42 mi27 min E 9.7 G 14 50°F2 ft1011.4 hPa
45013 46 mi87 min SSE 16 G 19 50°F 47°F4 ft1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi62 minESE 510.00 miFair51°F43°F75%1013.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi64 minSE 810.00 miClear52°F42°F72%1013.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi62 minSE 510.00 miFair50°F42°F74%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7S9S7S6SE7S7SE9S6SE6
1 day agoW3NW4NW4CalmW5CalmNW4CalmW4NW4NW3CalmCalmNW3NW3NW3N5NW5N6NW4NW6NW4CalmNW3
2 days agoW13
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NW13W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.