Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:22PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 5:42 AM CST (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:11PMMoonset 7:27AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Am Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
Today..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the evening, then backing south 5 to 15 knots after midnight rising to 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Thursday..South wind 15 to 25 knots veering southwest early in the afternoon, then becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the morning, then subsiding to 4 to 6 feet early in the afternoon subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912111700;;185719 FZUS53 KMKX 111106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-111700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 110539 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1139 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

UPDATE. Mid level clouds will overspread srn WI during the early morning. Very light snow or flurries may still occur over far srn WI from 10-14Z as a band of light snow tracks from IA to IL. Skies will then clear shortly afterward with another cold day expected.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). Few-sct025 stratocumulus and flurries will exit ern WI by 07Z. Brief periods of bkn025 will be possible. Mid level clouds will overspread srn WI from the west during the early morning hours. Flurries or very light snow may occur for a few hours over far srn WI from 10-14Z. Skies will then clear from nw to se.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 922 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019)

UPDATE . The forecast is on track for tnt-Wed.

MARINE . Low pressure of 30.0 inches over the northern Great Lakes will move into Quebec on Wednesday. High pressure of 30.6 inches over the northern Great Plains early Wednesday morning will move across Lake Michigan Wednesday night. Brisk westerly winds will continue tonight into Wednesday but diminish late Wednesday. Westerly wind gusts will approach small craft advisory conditions from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor for the early morning hours of Wed. The modest west winds will then back to southerly early Thursday morning as the high passes by. The colder airmass in place will lead to freezing spray at times.

South winds will increase Thursday as a weak low pressure system around 30.0 inches pushes in. A few gale force gusts are possible in the afternoon, especially over the center and south half of the lake. A Gale Watch may be needed. The low will move across the lake Thursday night. Lighter winds are expected on Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 603 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019)

UPDATE . An upper trough extending from Ontario to srn Manitoba will quickly dig sewd to Lake MI by 12Z Wed. This will help maintain a sfc trough over srn WI with sct stratocumulus west and south of Madison continuing slowly ewd this evening. Ahead of the upper trough a surge of warm advection and 850 mb frontogenesis will bring a narrow band of light snow across IA and nrn IL. Far sw WI may get clipped by a brief period of very light snow or flurries from 10-14Z Wed. Afterward, skies will clear with high temps in the teens. A sfc ridge will then shift ewd across srn WI for the late afternoon and evening.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . Few-sct025 stratocumulus are expected tnt. Brief periods of bkn025 will be possible mainly south of a line from Baraboo to Milwaukee. Skies will clear during the morning daylight hours with VFR conditions continuing into Wed nt.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 256 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Rest of this Afternoon through Wednesday Afternoon . Forecast Confidence High .

Light flurries associated with a lingering stratocu deck continue across eastern Wisconsin early this afternoon. This activity will slowly diminish in coverage this afternoon, with skies clearing out by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the teens and low 20s this afternoon.

Temperatures will quickly fall with sunset, reaching the single digits by mid evening. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid single digits above zero. A steady west breeze will bring wind chill values into the -5 to -15 range by morning.

A passing wave will bring the potential for some very light snow to the southwest of the area late tonight and early tomorrow, but for us, mid level cloud cover should be the only real impact. Skies should again clear by tomorrow afternoon, with afternoon highs ranging from the low teens north to around 20 across the far south.

LONG TERM .

Wednesday night through Friday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

A short wave will advance into the region Thursday. There is a swath of WAA at 850 mb and frontogenesis around 700mb that should support some precipitation for central and northern Wisconsin. The freezing line will bisect southern Wisconsin on Thursday,bringing the best chance for snow to counties north of I-94. Any accumulating snowfall is expected to remain light for all of southern Wisconsin. The areas south of I-94 could see little to no precipitation accumulations given the current model trends.This system will move out by Thursday night and there is expected to be a rather short break in the precipitation Friday.

Friday Night through Monday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

There is a trough that is expected to dig into the center CONUS late Friday into Saturday. As this trough digs into the region, a surface low is expected to develop across the Central Plains late Friday. As the system moves eastward toward the Great Lakes region, it is expected to deepen. With the latest model updates the track of the surface low pressure system has a little bit more uncertainty. The GFS has a track over the northern half of IL, while the ECMWF has the track further south. Despite the uncertainty in track, southern Wisconsin is expected to get some snow/wintry precipitation Saturday. After the system move through on Saturday, high pressure will build into the area and colder temperatures are expected to return. Another trough is expected to move though the area early next week for the start of the work week. There is still moderate uncertainty in the timing of this next system.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

MVFR ceilings and a few flurries will continue to persist across the area early this afternoon. This activity will slowly diminish with time, with ceilings scattering out by late afternoon, and eventually clearing. Late tonight into tomorrow, a passing wave to our south will bring mid and high level cloud cover to the area, but no precipitation is expected.

Winds through the period will remain westerly.

MARINE .

West winds will continue across the lake today and tonight. High pressure will build into the region on Wednesday, with lighter winds expected.

Winds will become southerly on Thursday, with gusts approaching gale force across the southern half of the open waters. For the nearshore, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Gehring Tonight/Wednesday and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Wednesday Night through Tuesday . Patterson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi42 min W 9.9 G 13 13°F 1025.1 hPa (+0.4)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi32 min W 6 G 8 11°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi47 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy12°F3°F69%1024.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi49 minW 1110.00 miOvercast14°F6°F71%1026.3 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi47 minVar 510.00 miOvercast13°F1°F61%1027.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W8
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W9W8W6W3W9W7W6W5W7W11
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W7Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW8SW8SW8W8
G20
W8W16
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2 days agoS10S12
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SW11SW12SW8SW6SW5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.