Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 7:01 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 906 Am Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Rest of today - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of showers early in the afternoon. Rain showers likely late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Tonight - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering south early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight. Saturday - South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the afternoon, then veering southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Saturday night - South wind 15 to 20 knots veering southwest 10 to 20 knots after midnight, then backing south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 260851 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 351 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected later today through the weekend, with storms possibly lingering into early Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- A few thunderstorms may be severe during this active pattern, particularly later Saturday through Sunday.

- Additional chances for showers and storms mid to late week next week.

SHORT TERM
Issued 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today through Saturday:

Persistent moisture and warm air advection will bring rounds of showers to Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. The first round this afternoon into early evening should be thunder free, but round 2 later evening into tonight should have at least a few rumbles of thunder. Bumped up precip chances, as latest HRRR probabilities of 6 hr measurable precip are 80-100 percent as the stronger forcing moves through.

Temps will be coolest east today under persistent onshore winds, with highs also a bit cooler in the southwest as the thicker clouds and rain move in this afternoon. Central portions of the forecast area should see temps near normal, topping out at around 60. Temps will stay on the mild side tonight due to the persistent warm air advection, elevated winds, and cloudy conditions.

Showers/storms should wind down by sunrise Saturday, with mainly dry weather then expected through the daytime hours as the deeper moisture and stronger forcing move on to the east/northeast. By late afternoon, a few showers and storms could develop mainly northwest of Madison, as a weak low level frontal boundary sags into the area from the northwest.

Though clouds may linger through Saturday morning, models suggest enough mixing for some breaks in the clouds by mid- afternoon. Given the warm southwest low level flow, went on the warmer side of models for high temps at 75 to 80 degrees. If the clouds hang on longer into the afternoon though, these forecast highs may be several degrees too mild.

DDV

LONG TERM
Issued 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday night through Thursday:

As the first low pressure ejects northeastward from the Great Lakes region Saturday evening, a second (deeper) low pressure drifts northeastward from the central plains. The cool sector from the first low (over northwestern WI) collides with the warm sector of the second low, producing a SW to NE oriented frontal boundary drifting into our CWA Saturday evening / night. The exact timing of this front remains uncertain, but an increase in shower / thunderstorm coverage is expected Saturday evening into Saturday night as the front draws closer. The ECMWF and the GFS both show MUCAPE of roughly 1000 to 2000 Saturday evening south of the front, decreasing to 500 to 900 j/kg south of the front by 1 AM Sunday as we lose daytime heating, suggesting that convection may transfer from surface based to elevated, increasing in coverage and weakening in intensity overnight. Severe hail and thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible Saturday evening, with the hail threat potentially lingering with the elevated convection overnight.

A surge in the southwesterly low-level jet arrives Sunday morning, rapidly boosting 850-700mb RH. A corresponding northward push of the surface warm front (ahead of the approaching low) is expected, though the exact timing / positioning of this front (and the surface based instability behind it) remains uncertain. Early Sunday, accelerating northeasterlies off of Lake Michigan are progged to halt the warm front's advance in our northeast CWA, while the front makes more progress in the west. The front then fully overruns the CWA later that evening / overnight. Rain / thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall and potentially some severe storms remain possible throughout this period.

Showers and thunderstorms then linger into Monday as as the cold front from the second low pressure finally pushes through. Next week's weather pattern then features two additional chances for rain as smaller amplitude troughs pass by.

Sheppard

AVIATION
Issued 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

High level clouds will continue this morning, with lowering bases from the southwest this afternoon and evening as a round of showers moves into the area. Ceilings are expected to drop to the 5-10 hft range. Additional showers are expected this evening into tonight, with some thunder also possible. Precip is expected to wind down 09-12Z early Saturday, with mainly dry weather then during the day Saturday. Scattered showers/storms may eventually develop northwest of Madison by late Sat afternoon. Ceilings should gradually improve Saturday, with a return to VFR by mid-afternoon.

Breezy southeast winds are expected today and tonight, becoming south to southwest on Sunday. A period of low level wind shear is likely this evening and overnight as the low level jet moves overhead.

DDV

MARINE
Issued 350 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Breezy southeast winds are expected today into tonight as low pressure lifts from the Central Plains into Minnesota. Winds will remain elevated Saturday from the south as the low continues to lift northward west of the area. Winds will then flip to northerly from the north Saturday night through at least central portions of the lake, with a frontal boundary likely remaining draped across the southern lake on Sunday. Winds will be southerly south of the front and east to northeast north of the front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for today through Monday, through winds and waves may drop below criteria for a time on Sunday. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected this evening through the weekend.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Friday to 7 PM Monday.

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