Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:28PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 1:26 PM CDT (18:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:24PMMoonset 7:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 8 2020
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of rain early in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then backing west early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering northwest late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202004082200;;776478 FZUS53 KMKX 081805 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-082200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 081723 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1223 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

UPDATE.

The true cold front is still lingering back to the W/NW but a few showers have pushed out ahead of this feature and are moving over southern WI. With these extending back to the west don't think we'll be able to warm up into the 60s to 70 from what we had forecast. Plan to knock down temps into the low to mid 60s for highs and update trends. There is still some limited instability aloft so a few rumbles remain possible into the afternoon.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS).

The dense fog was slow to clear this morning but has lifted leaving mainly VFR conditions. Light showers will spread from west to east through the region this afternoon and vsbys could drop to 4-5SM at times. A strong cold front pushes through this evening clearing any lingering precip and bringing gusty NW winds. Winds should continue for the rest of the TAF period and increase during the morning and afternoon hours on Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 954 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020)

UPDATE .

The fog should clear by 10 am with only a few pockets of fog still hanging around mainly by the lake. Otherwise a shortwave moving across northern IA and southern MN will be the main focus of the forecast today. As this moves east lapse rates should steepen enough to allow for a couple hundred joules of CAPE and with 50-65kts of shear a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. CAPE will be more limited compared to yesterday so not expecting the big hail producers. Because we've been able to mix out the lower levels it's possible that a few of the storms generate some gusty winds. The rest of the forecast for today is on track.

MARINE .

Dense fog is expected to continue across the southern two thirds of the lake until noon today. Then a cold front will approach the lake and with increasing winds the fog should clear. A few thunderstorms are possible along the front this afternoon and evening. The rest of the forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 602 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020)

UPDATE . Most vsbys within the cwa 1/4 mile or less, so advisory continues.

PC

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) . Will have a good deal of LIFR conditions through early morning due to dense fog. Even some VLIFR. Expecting improvement from mid morning on, with ceilings transitioning to MVFR and perhaps VFR. Rain chances increase into the afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary, so a return of some MVFR cigs/vsbys. This front goes by early/mid afternoon. Any lingering rain clears out in the evening.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 353 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today And Tonight . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

An early morning light wind regime with high pressure has resulted in areas of dense fog. Have put out a Dense Fog Advisory for the whole area and will run this through 14z.

With some sunshine and presence of low level thermal ridge will keep warm temps going. However, should any stratus not erode those temps will be in jeopardy.

As low level frontogenetical forcing increases this afternoon and evening, along with mid level shortwave energy, expecting rain to spread into the area. That should clear out fairly quick this evening, with northwest winds increasing with a cold advection regime taking hold.

Thursday Through Friday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are showing an elongated 500 mb shortwave trough rotating southward through the area Thursday, within cyclonic flow around the main 500 mb low. Forecast soundings are indicating steep low level lapse rates with some moisture in the 700 mb to 750 mb layer. This should allow for chances for rain and snow showers, especially during the afternoon, with thermal profiles cold enough for some snow showers and/or graupel to occur. Added some PoPs to the forecast Thursday afternoon.

In addition, gusty northwest winds are expected to continue Thursday into Thursday night, with the highest gusts Thursday. GFS forecast soundings are more aggressive with gusts than the NAM. Gusts in the 30 to 35 knot range seem reasonable for midday Thursday across the area, highest toward the lake. For now, it does not seem like 39 knot-plus gusts would occur. Below normal temperatures are expected.

Northwest flow then holds over the region Thursday night into Friday. High pressure passing to the south of the region Friday should bring quiet weather to the area. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue.

LONG TERM .

Friday Night Through Tuesday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models continue to differ with the track and strength of low pressure during this period. They generally show low pressure developing over the Central High Plains Friday night, then into the Southern Plains by Sunday, then northeast toward the Great Lakes region Sunday night and Monday.

The GFS is the strongest/most occluded and furthest to the north Sunday night and Monday, taking the low north across Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. There could be some light snow or a mix Sunday night into Monday, as the low moves through and away from the area.

The ECMWF is weaker and takes more of a track into central Indiana and Lake Erie Sunday night and Monday. The Canadian is weaker still and a little further east. The GFS ensembles are far enough south of the region with the low track that southern Wisconsin would not be affected much. However, the GEFS plumes were showing decent QPF values of 0.50 to 0.90 inches with this system over parts of the area.

For now, still enough uncertainty to leave the blended model PoPs and temperatures across the area for the Friday night into Tuesday period. It appears to be warm enough for rain on most models/ensembles into Sunday, before light snow/mix possibilities Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures look to remain a little below seasonal normals.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Will have a good deal of LIFR conditions through early morning due to dense fog. Expecting improvement from mid morning on, with ceilings transitioning to MVFR and perhaps VFR. Rain chances increase into the afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary, so a return of some MVFR cigs/vsbys. This front goes by early/mid afternoon. Any lingering rain clears out in the evening.

MARINE .

Main story this morning is dense fog. Per coordination with WFO Chicago southward push of stratus on nighttime microphysics loop have pulled the open waters marine Dense Fog Advisory southward to the southern extent of the lake. Also added the nearshore to this. Expect some improvement as the morning wears along.

Then attention turns to post-frontal wind regime later today into Thursday. Best small craft potential would be later tonight into Thursday, while still seeing evidence of gales for the open waters. So, will hold off on Small Craft Advisory issuance at this time, but keep the Gale Watch going for Thursday into Thursday night.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LMZ080-366- 565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876- 878.

Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779- 868-870-872-874-876-878.



Update . Stumpf Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Collar Thursday THROUGH Tuesday . Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi86 min SSE 11 G 12 48°F 1007.5 hPa (-1.3)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi46 min N 4.1 G 6 46°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi31 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F51°F68%1007.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi33 minW 610.00 miOvercast63°F52°F68%1007.8 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi31 minVar 58.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F51°F75%1007.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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CalmN8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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2 days agoSE3SE4CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8S3S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.