Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:31PM Saturday July 11, 2020 12:54 PM CDT (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:01AMMoonset 11:53AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Am Cdt Sat Jul 11 2020
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast late in the evening, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight veering northwest early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North wind 10 to 20 knots veering northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then backing north in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202007112200;;682924 FZUS53 KMKX 111606 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-112200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 111420 AAA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 920 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

UPDATE.

Updated the forecast for the current area of thunderstorms in the southwest forecast area. This activity will continue into late morning, with dry weather likely much of the afternoon. Still looks good for a chance for storms later today across mainly the southwest again. Will continue to evaluate this potential as the 12Z model guidance rolls in.

MARINE.

Low pressure will drop south across Lake Michigan this afternoon and evening. West to northwest winds ahead of the low will transition to northerly late today into Sunday behind the low. The northerly winds will be on the breezy side. Lighter winds are expected to develop Monday as high pressure moves overhead.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 616 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020)

UPDATE .

The line of showers and thunderstorms in southeast Minnesota should weaken as they move into the more stable air mass over Wisconsin this morning. Convection should follow the instability and moisture gradient, but showers and storms may make their way through Iowa, Lafayette, and Green counties before shifting south. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Other than a few showers and thunderstorms clipping southwest Wisconsin, quiet conditions are expected through this morning. Showers and thunderstorms then develop for this afternoon and evening. MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any thunderstorm. Best potential for thunderstorms remains south of a Fond du Lac to Port Washington line. Dry conditions return late tonight and continue into Sunday morning.

The lake breeze will move in for sites along the lake this afternoon. Winds will then shift to the northeast tonight as the low pressure system shifts southeast of the area.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 350 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Tonight . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

Watching some showers over south central Minnesota. If they hold together they could move into western portions of the forecast area. Otherwise dry conditions are expected this morning with a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms during the early afternoon.

The main round of rain and thunderstorms today will move into western portions of the forecast area around 4pm. This is due to the 500mb positive vorticity advection associated with the low pressure moving from northern North Dakota into southwest Wisconsin late this afternoon. Along the low pressure system's track will be a moisture and instability gradient with CAPE values around 3000 J/kg west and south of Madison and lower amounts as you head north and east. Shear will also increase as the low approaches with 30-40 knots mainly west and south of Madison. With moisture, shear, and instability in place we could see some strong to severe storms with gusts around 60 mph and quarter size hail. Best chance for any severe storms will be west and south of Madison. Heavy rain will once again be possible with any thunderstorm with the best focus in southwest Wisconsin. With several inches of rain observed already this week, flooding could be a concern. Areas along and north of a Fond du Lac to Port Washington line may stay dry.

Sunday . Forecast Confidence is Medium..

Increasing heights, drier air, and northerly flow will result in a nice day Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 70s. Clouds will linger through the day and we'll have to watch a slight chance for some shallow showers. For now left the forecast dry as there is not much confidence in these showers.

Sunday night through Tuesday . Forecast confidence high.

Upper ridging and a north to south sfc ridge will move across the wrn Great Lakes for Sun nt-Mon eve in response to a large polar trough moving ewd across srn Canada. Pleasant seasonal temps and humidity is forecast.

The cold front from the low moving across Canada will then weaken and slow as it approaches srn WI on Tue. Sly flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions, but just small chances for showers and storms on Tue at this time.

LONG TERM . Tuesday night through Friday . Forecast confidence medium.

There is some uncertainty on how widespread the showers and storms will be with the weakening cool front for Tue nt-Wed. Likely PoPs are forecast for Tue nt at this time, with much lesser PoPs for Wed. High pressure building into the region may be able to move the front far enough south for dry conditions for Thu-Fri, but will have to maintain low PoPs at this time.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are expected to continue into this afternoon. Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is then expected to move in during the late afternoon and early evening. These are forecast to stay mainly south of a Fond du Lac to Port Washington line and conditions could drop to MVFR/IFR in any storm. Winds stay out of the NW but with warmer temps inland a lake breeze is expected to develop.

MARINE .

Light northwest to west winds will strengthen and shift to the north as the low pressure system passes through tonight. Gusts around 20 knots will be possible into Sunday. Lighter winds are expected Monday as high pressure moves over the Great Lakes Region.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . DDV Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . RAH Sunday THROUGH Friday . Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi55 min WNW 12 G 19 81°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.3)
45187 26 mi35 min W 9.7 G 16 79°F 73°F1 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi45 min WSW 9.9 G 13 83°F
45174 42 mi35 min W 12 G 16 80°F 75°F2 ft1012.6 hPa66°F
45013 46 mi55 min NW 5.8 G 5.8 79°F 70°F1 ft1012.3 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi80 minN 010.00 mi79°F66°F65%1013.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi62 minWNW 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast81°F64°F57%1012.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi60 minWNW 10 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F62°F49%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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NW10NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW8Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7CalmNW9NW10NW3NW13
G16
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NW11NW7NW13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.