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FXUS61 KALY 281820 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 120 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A chilly air mass will be over the region through mid week, as lake effect snow will continue across the western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and into the northern Catskills. The heaviest lake effect snow will occur through today. Additional snow showers and flurries will affect the region today with a secondary cold front moving through. High pressure will build in from the Mid Atlantic States with lake effect decreasing on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties through 12 AM Wednesday...

Lake Effect Snow Advisory for southern Herkimer County until 7 AM Wednesday...

UPDATE as of 1245 PM EST
Lake effect band continues downstream of Lake Ontario into the southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley with snow rates of 0.5-1"/hr. This band will ease southward towards I-90 between 2-4 pm in southern Herkimer Co. The Winter Weather Advisory has begun for southern Herkimer County for 2-6". Some isolated/scattered snow showers continue south of the Capital Region close to the I-84 corridor. We increased PoPs there. Some of this is diffuse snow showers off Lake Erie. The 12Z KALY has very steep low- level lapse rates below 700 hPa and is well mixed. The PWAT has lowered to 0.17". Some gusty winds are likely with west to northwest winds and gusts 25-40 mph. We adjusted clouds and PoPs again with this updated. We had a snow report of 15" come in from Inlet in western Hamilton County. Highs will be in the 20s to lower and mid 30s in the major valleys.

PREV DISCUSSION

Storm total accumulations in N. Herkimer and NW Hamilton Counties expected to range from 8-16" with locally higher amounts in the most persistent bands, with 3-6" in S. Herkimer north of the Thruway. Snow bands will shift farther south from mid afternoon to early evening, as the flow veers further. Hi- res guidance showing fragments of bands extending down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District towards the evening commute time. Residence time will not be long, however a quick burst of snow could result in a half inch to one inch of snow in these areas. Reduced visibility and briefly snow covered roads could cause areas of hazardous travel. Will mention likely PoPs into the Capital District and upslope areas to the east for the expected snow showers. It will become breezy/gusty this afternoon, with W-NW winds gusting 25-35 mph in favored areas.
High temperatures will also be below normal with highs only in the 30s in lower elevations and 20s in the mountains.

With NW flow trajectory through this evening, some persistent multi- lake bands could set up in the Schoharie Valley, Helderbergs and northern Catskills area with a quick 1-3" possible in these areas. As ridging pushes east across the mid Atlantic region, the flow is expected to back to more of a westerly trajectory late tonight into early Wed morning, so lake effect snow showers should back north of the Thruway into the western Adirondacks. While some additional accumulations are possible, snow bands will be more transitory and weaker in intensity, so amounts should much lighter. With an upper level trough and anomalously cold air mass in place (850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV), lows will be quite chilly with lower/mid 10s in the higher terrain and upper 10s/lower 20s in valleys.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Relatively tranquil weather expected on Wed, as the flow backs to more of a SW direction ahead of a short wave disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. This will send any lake effect snow bands northward into the far NW Adirondacks and St Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will remain below normal with the broad trough in place. Highs expected to only be in the 20s across the higher terrain with lower/mid 30s in the valleys.
There will be a SW breeze, but should not be as gusty as the previous few days.

The aforementioned short wave is forecast to move across northern NY and New England late Wed afternoon into Wed night.
There should be enough forcing for to result in scattered snow showers, but due to limited moisture they are expected to be confined to mainly higher terrains areas west of the Hudson Valley. Lows should range from upper 10s in the mountains to mid 20s in valleys.

On Thursday, the upper trough should move out with zonal flow aloft developing. A milder air mass will build in, with low level SW flow and dry conditions expected. Highs should be able reach near normal levels, with lower/mid 40s in lower elevations. Dry conditions and relatively milder temperatures should persist much of Thu night, although a weak front approaching from the north/west may bring a few rain/snow showers to western areas overnight.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Active pattern with high degree of uncertainty for much of the long term, as several fast moving disturbances move through the developing southwest flow aloft. Initial disturbance looks to track through Friday with a period of light to moderate precipitation. Thermal profiles look to favor mainly rain, however some snow or a wintry mix could occur for some higher elevations north of I-90. Another disturbance may bring spotty light precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday. With slightly colder air in place, some snow and/or a wintry mix could occur, particularly for areas north of I-90.

A stronger disturbance may bring widespread and more significant precipitation Sunday night into Monday, although timing and track of this feature remains highly uncertain.
P-type will be highly dependent on ultimate track and evolution of this feature.

Overall temps should remain near to slightly below normal through the period, with daytime highs in the 30s and 40s, though could be colder Sun-Mon. Overnight lows in the 20s and 30s, although could be colder Sunday morning with teens and 20s possible if some clearing occurs.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...Conditions are currently VFR with sct-bkn cloud bases at 4-6 kft and unrestricted vsbys. Scattered cells of convective snow showers are developing across much of the North Country and Mid-Hudson Valley which may briefly reduce vsbys if they pass over any terminal, but confidence is currently too low to include timing of potential snow squalls in TAFs. A more coherent band spreading east-southeast from Lake Ontario is beginning to slowly pivot southward, and within the next few hours there is higher confidence that a narrow region of snow showers will track along the Mohawk Valley and farther downwind. Have included TEMPO groups around 21-22Z at ALB/PSF for the most likely timing of IFR conditions from higher snow rates within the snow band. Coverage of cellular snow showers will lessen this evening, by 00-03Z Wed, while the banded area of snow will continue to pivot away from ALB/PSF.

Gusty west-northwest winds continue into the evening at all terminals, with gusts of 20-30 kt expected through 00-06Z Wed.
Speeds decrease to 10 kt or less after 03-09Z out of the southwest, continuing through the remainder of the TAF period to 18Z Wed.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until midnight EST tonight for NYZ032- 033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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