Castleton-on-Hudson, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Castleton-on-Hudson, NY

June 20, 2024 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM
Moonrise 7:52 PM   Moonset 3:36 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castleton-on-Hudson, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 201101 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 701 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Our stretch of hot and humid weather continues today with scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Some storms may become strong producing damaging winds gusts, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. We remain very warm and humid Friday through the weekend but not quite as hot as previous days. Areas of showers and thunderstorms redevelop each afternoon with potential for more widespread rain and stronger storms on Sunday as a cold front approaches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
**Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of eastern New York and western New England through 8 PM today. The Heat Advisory continues for the mid- Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County through 8 PM Friday.**

Today will be our final day of our widespread dangerous heat and humidity. We are starting the day quite muggy and warm once again with record high minimum temperatures set yesterday at a few climate sites. Regional radar shows a decaying MCS in southern Canada but it should pass well to our north with a few weak showers in central and western NY. Most of the morning should be dry but latest CAMs suggest shower and storms start developing by 16-17 UTC as our sfc trough approaches.

Previous discussion...Otherwise, expecting a third day of hot and humid weather today as our large anticyclone with central heights around 597dam gradually pushes southward into the mid- Atlantic. With slightly faster zonal flow around the periphery of the ridge sliding south into more of eastern NY and western New England, we will be in a more favorable corridor that will likely support afternoon shower and thunderstorms. Our environment of 850hPa isotherms around 18-19C, mixing up to around 800-850hPa, isolated storm coverage and a thicker cirrus canopy the past few days has resulted in mainly low to mid 90s highs and upper 80s in the higher terrain. Similar conditions are expected today except with higher shower and storm coverage so continue to show low to mid 90s for highs in the valley areas with mid to upper 80s in the high terrain. We limited mid-90s to the mid- Hudson Valley where shower/storm coverage should be less. Combination of temperatures in the 80s/90s and high dew points in the low 70s will once again support dangerous heat index values reaching 95 - 100F. Technically we have lower heat index values in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens but given this is the third day of hot/humid weather and that most of these areas do not have air conditioning, we maintained heat advisory headlines.

A sfc trough tracking southward towards our region midday into the afternoon will provide a focus for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development. In addition, embedded shortwaves within the zonal flow aloft will also enhance forcing for ascent. The hot/humid environment will easily support moderate to high instability values ranging 1.5 - 2.5k J/kg so once convective initiation begins, updrafts will likely quickly strengthen. Taller storms will present damaging wind concerns as DCAPE values reach >500J/kg. Given weak shear with 0-6km shear values only around 20kt, storms should mainly be pulse- type but can grow into storm clusters from outflow boundaries/cold pools. High equilibrium levels >35kft will also present high NCAPE and hail cape values which local research shows supports frequent lightning as well. High PWATs around 2" and high freezing levels >10kft means we will see efficient warm rain processes and storms producing heavy downpours. Weak steering flow aloft can result in some localized poor drainage flooding, especially if storms persist over a given area.
Guidance and CAMs focus convection mainly around I-90 northward where the best "ridge roller" environment should set-up so placed likely POPs here and trended POPs to just chance in the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT. SPC maintained its "slight risk" today with damaging winds the primary hazard. While the storm coverage is not as widespread as we typically see with slight risk type of days, the high instability will allow updrafts that develop to quickly grow towards severe limits and with increased forcing for ascent in place today, storm coverage should be greater than we have seen in previous days.

Showers and thunderstorms diminish in coverage this evening with the loss of daytime heating but a few isolated showers and storms likely linger overnight as the sfc trough stalls over the region. Otherwise, continued cloud coverage will keep temperatures warm and it will stay muggy, especially in areas that experience rainfall, once again overnight with temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s. Fog should develop shortly after sunset in areas that experience rain given the moist environment.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
**Heat Advisories continue for the mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County through 8PM Friday**

We remain within the northern periphery of our broad ~595dm anticyclone Friday into Saturday with the conveyor belt of increasingly stronger zonal/westerly flow and thus stronger shear developing over eastern NY and western New England each day. For Friday, the sfc trough from Thursday likely lingers just south of Interstate 90 with a cold front gradually approaching from the International border. Areas south of the sfc trough, mainly the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, will remain in the very warm and humid air mass with temperatures likely rising back into the low to mid 90s. Given continued high humidity, heat index values in these southern zones should exceed heat advisory criteria reaching 95 - 100F for a fourth day and thus we have extended our heat advisory for Dutchess, eastern Ulster and southern Litchfield County through 8 PM Friday. We considered added in northern Litchfield and western Ulster but current thinking is heat index values will be a few degrees shy of the 95F heat advisory criteria and thus did not included these zones. The day shift and reevaluate and expanded the advisory if needed. The rest of the region will still very warm and humid but high temperatures should only reach into the mid to upper 80s and although it still will be quite humid, the lower temperatures will keep heat index values under the 95F threshold.

Given the lingering sfc trough near or just south of I-90 and the additional forcing from the incoming cold front pressing southward, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely quickly initiate once we reach the diurnal peak heating hours by late morning with storm coverage growing through much of the afternoon. Sfc instability will remain sufficiently high 1 - 2k J/kg and stronger westerly flow aloft will contribute to higher deep layer shear ranging 25 - 35kts. Damaging winds again are the primary concern with pulse type storms developing along the sfc trough capable of evolving into line or bowing segments thanks to stronger shear values. SPC has expanded it marginal risk for severe weather from the I-90 corridor southward through the mid-Hudson Valley and Berkshire/Litchfield County where the higher instability and sfc trough should overlap. However, the cold front pushing southward from northern NY later in the afternoon will serve as a secondary focus for organized convection for areas north of I-90 and the stronger shear will help compensate for the somewhat weaker instability. Thus, strong to severe storms including line or bowing segment capable of damaging winds are possible even for areas north of I-90. Heavy downpours are possible from thunderstorms throughout the region as well given PWATs hovering around 2" and efficient warm processes still in place.

Showers and storms gradually weaken in coverage and strength Friday night but with boundaries lingering overhead, we maintained chance POPs overnight. Expect another muggy and warm night thanks to the lingering showers/isolated storms with overnight lows only dropping into the mid to upper 60s. Areas in the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens should turn a little cooler as winds shift to the north-northeast in the wake of the cold front. Patchy fog will also likely develop where daytime rain took place.

Our boundaries from Friday hang around into Saturday and as our anticyclone builds further south in to the TN/MS Valley, the "ring of fire" around its northern periphery remains over eastern NY and western New England. While temperatures will not be hot as previous days, it will still be summer-like with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 80s for much of the area. Dew points will also remain high enough to make it feel humid. Heat index values will luckily finally be below heat advisory criteria which will be a welcomed relief. Our region remaining in the "ring of fire" combined with the boundaries lingering overhead will allow for renewed convection during the peak heating hours once again. Overall instability will be weaker and the sfc boundaries will be less pronounced but with embedded shortwaves still tracking aloft within the fast westerly flow, strong shear may still be able to support some stronger storms. Guidance suggests the boundary starts to lift back northward as a warm front later in the afternoon which could be a more favorable time for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. We thus placed likely POPs Saturday afternoon.

Showers and storms coverage weakens Saturday night as front lifts north of the region. Just how far north the front reaches remains uncertain and northern areas could still see shower/storm activity should it not totally clear our area. Southerly winds return in the wake of the boundary and guidance suggests the warm sector that had finally left our region could make a return. Temperatures remain warm in the mid to upper 60s and it stay muggy.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Long term begins at 12z Sunday with a potent upper shortwave and associated surface low located over the northern Great Lakes region. The surface low deepens as these features track to the eat/northeast Sunday. The system's warm front will have lifted north of our region by Sunday morning, placing our region in the warm sector. As the pressure gradient strengthens, S/SW winds increase and help to advect warm moist air into our region.
Exact highs are somewhat uncertain due to uncertainty in how much cloud cover we see, but the current forecast is for highs in the low 90s for portions of the Mid Hudson Valley with dew upper 80s for the remainder of our valley locations with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s. Accordingly, heat indices are currently forecast to reach low-end heat advisory criteria.
If forecast confidence in these heat index values increases over the coming days, then additional heat advisories may be needed.

The system's cold front will track through our region Sunday night or Monday, and a pre-frontal trough will cross the region late SUnday afternoon or evening ahead of the main cold front. With ample instability and the LLJ and flow aloft both strengthening, there may be enough overlap of instability and shear for some storms to be strong to severe. Coverage and strength of storms will ultimately depend on the timing of the pre-frontal trough relative to peak heating. Best chance for strong to severe storms is on Sunday, but a slower cold frontal passage may leave the window open for a few stronger storms in western New England on Monday as well. Forecast confidence on the timing of the cold front remains on the lower side, but we should get a better idea over the next couple of days.

We see briefly cooler and drier weather Tuesday behind the front as high pressure builds in from the southwest, but this high will quickly slide to our east putting our region in a warmer S/SW flow regime again for Wednesday. Then, Wednesday or Thursday, another cold frontal passage may bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances with cooler weather returning towards the end of the week.
However, the CPC still expected temperatures for days 8 to 14 to average above normal with near normal precip for that same timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12z Friday...Any lingering fog/mist burns off by 12z this morning with just FEW to SCT mid and high clouds and prevailing VFR conditions through at least noon today. This afternoon, showers and storms are expected to develop. Have used tempo/prob30 groups to try to hone in on the most likely time for showers/storms, but will mention here that showers and storms are possible any time from early afternoon through sunset this evening. If any storms move over one of the terminals, then gusty winds and brief IFR vsby reductions can be expected.

Showers and storms diminish tonight after sunset. Any areas that see rain this afternoon/evening may see patchy fog overnight. Most likely locations are GFL/PSF where fog has already been added to the TAFs tonight. Will work to refine fog potential more with subsequent TAF issuances.

Winds will be at 5-10 kt from the south/south west through most of the day today, except will be more westerly at PSF. Winds diminish to 5 kt or less after sunset tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Numerous SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures...

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

Record High Minimum Temperatures...

Thursday, June 20: Albany - 73 (1893)
Glens Falls - 68 (1964)
Poughkeepsie - 71 (1931)

Friday, June 21: Albany - 72 (1923)
Glens Falls - 71 (1953)
Poughkeepsie - 73 (1931)

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033- 038>043-047>054-058>061-063-082>084.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ064>066.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ013>015.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi45 min0 73°F 30.2765°F
TKPN6 37 mi57 minS 4.1G5.1 74°F 76°F30.3067°F
NPXN6 49 mi45 minS 1.9 74°F 30.3067°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 98 mi57 minSSW 5.1G6 72°F 69°F30.31
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 99 mi57 minW 4.1G5.1 74°F 68°F30.25


Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KALB ALBANY INTL,NY 15 sm24 minSSE 0610 smMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%30.28
KSCH SCHENECTADY COUNTY,NY 24 sm30 mincalm10 smClear77°F68°F74%30.29
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Wind History graph: ALB
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
   
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:32 PM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
2.9
2
am
3.9
3
am
4.7
4
am
5.1
5
am
4.9
6
am
4.1
7
am
3.2
8
am
2.3
9
am
1.4
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
1.6
2
pm
2.5
3
pm
3.1
4
pm
3.5
5
pm
3.5
6
pm
2.9
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.2


Tide / Current for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Thu -- 03:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:01 AM EDT     5.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:15 PM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
2.3
1
am
3.5
2
am
4.4
3
am
5
4
am
5.2
5
am
4.9
6
am
4
7
am
3
8
am
2.2
9
am
1.3
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.5
12
pm
1.2
1
pm
2.2
2
pm
2.9
3
pm
3.4
4
pm
3.6
5
pm
3.5
6
pm
2.8
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1.1
10
pm
0.6
11
pm
0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   
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Albany, NY,




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