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FXUS61 KALY 160231 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1031 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers diminish this evening as a boundary to the north and west continues to weaken, while an approaching coastal low brings additional rain showers to the Mid- Hudson Valley and southern New England overnight. Showers continue through Thursday before dry weather returns on Friday. Additional chances for rain are expected this weekend into next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Update
As of 10:30 PM EDT...Still a lingering showers located across the Adirondacks in association with a stalled frontal boundary, but coverage of showers here has diminished over the last few hours and should continue to do so as we head through the night. To our south, a 1000 mb coastal low remains located off the NJ coast and continues to slowly drift northeastwards.
Periods of rain/showers on the north side of the low where best warm advection/isentropic lift is continue to expand northwards into CT, and will likely move into Litchfield County over the next couple hours. Portions of Dutchess and Berkshire Counties may also see some showers overnight into tomorrow morning as the coastal low tracks to our south, but rain is not expected to be heavy enough to result in any hydro concerns in our area.
Otherwise, just minor adjustments with this update to fit current trends. Previous forecast remains in good shape with more details below...

Previous
Across our southern zones, showers likely persist through much of tonight, with a period of steadier rain possible across portions of far southeastern Dutchess and eastern Litchfield Counties due to isentropic lift/warm advection associated with a coastal front. There will be a sharp northern edge to the steadier precip, and the heaviest precip is expected to remain to our east through at least 12z Thursday. Also added some patchy fog to the grids tonight, which is possible should any breaks in the cloud shield occur. Most likely area for this looks to be along and north of I-90.

A weakening surface boundary remains draped across portions of the Northeast while a vertically-stacked upper low and incipient surface low continue to deepen as they track together to the northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A more solid shield of precipitation is impinging upon the southern New England coast as the coastal low approaches, which will reach into areas along and east of the Taconics in western New England overnight tonight. Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the period. Tonight, temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40 to upper 50s across the region. Light south to southeast winds this afternoon and evening turn out of the east to northeast about the northern flank of the approaching low.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Isolated to scattered showers continue on Thursday as the coastal low meanders off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the highest chances for rain in areas nearest to the the low in northwestern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Other higher terrain areas across the eastern Catskills, southern Adirondacks, and southern Vermont may also see enhanced shower coverage while the Mohawk, Schoharie, and Upper Hudson Valleys trend drier. Temperatures stay cooler to the south and east of Albany beneath more persistent cloud cover and rain shower activity, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, while relatively clearer skies to the north and west yield warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Dry weather returns to the region by Thursday night as higher pressure noses into the region as the coastal low exits to the east. Temperatures near seasonable norms are expected, with Thursday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Developing southeasterly flow on Friday will see temperatures rise above normal, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s across the region beneath partly cloudy skies. Another approaching upper shortwave will bring increased cloud cover ahead of rain shower late Friday night, with mild overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A mid and upper level low/trough and surface low pressure system looks to track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas over the weekend. There is some uncertainty on whether or not a weak upper trough or upper ridge will be overhead on Saturday, which would impact rainfall chances. In addition, an inverted trough may be in place, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley.
Overall, the best rain chances Saturday look to be for areas west of the Hudson Valley. By Sunday, stronger upper level ridging will be in place with surface high pressure nosing in from Atlantic Canada.
This will bring increasingly drier weather for the second half of the weekend.

Continued upper ridging and surface high pressure in place will maintain dry conditions for early next week. The next best chance for rainfall arrives towards midweek as an upper-level trough and surface low pressure system and cold front approach from the west.

Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday then trend upward to the 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Lows most nights will be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 7:45 PM EDT, except at PSF where a brief shower resulted in some IFR vsbys.
Expecting mainly VFR vsbys/cigs outside of any showers through the next few hours at POU/PSF and through at least midnight at GFL/ALB. POU/PSF see a trend down towards MVFR cigs later this evening as the coastal low approaches. There is a brief window at GFL where some fog/mist is possible around midnight if some breaks in the clouds occur, but current thinking is that any fog/mist will be short-lived as increasing winds there after 8z should help to mix out any fog. Some showers are possible the second half of tonight at POU/PSF with the coastal low passing to our south, but exactly how far north showers make it remains uncertain.

Tomorrow morning, all terminals trend down to MVFR cigs, but if any showers make it to POU/PSF, they should end shortly after 12z tomorrow. MVFR cigs prevail through tomorrow morning at all TAF sites, but ALB/GFL see some improvement back to VFR for tomorrow afternoon and evening. At POU/PSF, MVFR cigs continue well into the afternoon, with some improvement possible towards the tail end of the TAF period. Some additional showers are possible tomorrow afternoon with daytime heating, but these will be hit or miss so will just include VCSH groups for now.

Winds will be from the northeast at around 5 kt or less through the next few hours, switching to the east/northeast at around 5-10 kt after midnight. Tomorrow, east/northeast winds will be around 10 kt with some gusts of 15-25 kt possible at ALB/POU/PSF especially from mid-morning through early evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:14 AM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 11:06 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:53 PM EDT     4.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

New Baltimore
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Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:47 AM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:49 AM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:28 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:36 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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