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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 334 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable. Cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Light showers likely in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the south early in the afternoon. Light showers likely in the morning...then light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Light showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy becoming partly Sunny in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 020420 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1120 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023


AVIATION

An ongoing region of elevated frontal forcing is traversing srn and cntl Lower Mi tonight while the actual surface low tracks across the Toledo region from 09Z to 12Z. Precip will generally persist through 12Z before tapering to drizzle. Boundary layer warmth will sustain rain from FNT southward tonight. mbS will remain close to the rain snow line, with subtle boundary layer cooling tonight suggesting that precip type will be mainly wet/melting snow. Ceilings are settling back into IFR and LIFR under subtle boundary layer cooling.
Available model guidance generally suggests a persistence forecast of LIFR across most of the area through the overnight. In fact recent trends are suggesting a more pessimistic 12-15Z time period where low clouds and fog may be quite prevalent, especially from PTK southward.

For DTW...Locations currently north of the sfc low track across nrn Indiana and far SW Lower Mi are experiencing LIFR and VLIFR conditions in fog and low clouds. Current trends are suggesting these conditions will plague metro this morning, possibly through 15Z or later.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.

* High in ptype remaining as all rain tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 830 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

UPDATE...

A respectable mid level fgen response has become established from southern Lake Michigan into central Michigan. The precip will be more prolonged/widespread across the Saginaw Valley. Showers and/or drizzle will remain prevalent farther south as there will continue to be decent low-mid level isentropic ascent. Boundary layer temps will continue to be cool enough to support precip type as mainly snow across Midland County and far northern Bay County. Have increased nighttime snow accums into the 1-2 range in this area. The remainder of the Saginaw valley region and northern thumb will see a rain/snow mix or melting snow with all rain expected farther south.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

DISCUSSION...

Precipitation coverage and intensity will wane late this afternoon into early this evening as initial period of FGEN forcing ebbs as the lead upper level disturbance moves east of the area. This will allow snow over parts of the Saginaw Valley into northern Thumb to switch back to a mix of snow/rain/drizzle to some degree as the precipitation rates decrease and also as a minor bubble of slightly milder air works into the area in advance of the next weaker upper level wave.

This next system will bring a renewed period of precipitation to the area later this evening into the overnight. Rain will fall I-69 south with a mix or rain/snow further north. Additional snow accumulations during the late day to overnight period over northern areas should remain subdued and generally 2 inches or less. The best potential for light accumulations in excess of an inch will be over parts of the northern Saginaw Valley where precipitation will have a better chance of remaining all snow into this evening/tonight as the lull between these to disturbances will be shortest lived (or non-existent) in this sector of the forecast area.

This active weather pattern will hold as another upper level wave ejects from the central Rockies/plains into the Great Lakes Sunday and brings widespread rainfall once again. Temperatures are once again marginal for snow, so do not expect any notable accumulations and most likely just some snow mixed with the rain over the Saginaw Valley again. Rainfall totals will be a bit lighter than today's event with one quarter of an inch of rain more common (as compared to around one half of an inch of rain that has fallen over at least the southern half of the region today).

As this next shortwave trough works through the area Sunday, the main upper level longwave trough axis will translate east into the Great Lakes/upper Mississippi to Ohio Valley in response with subsequent disturbances then digging into the area and deepening this main large scale trough over the area. This will lead to an unsettled and cool (but not particularly cold) pattern with periodic scattered rain and/or snow showers next week and temperatures in the mid/upper 30s to lower 40s at times which is really rather close to seasonal averages for early December.

MARINE...

Slow moving low pressure system will continue to gradually slide out of the Ohio Valley and across the south-central Great Lakes this evening/tonight. Result is a fairly steady state forecast through that timeframe with widespread rain showers (perhaps some snow mixing in near shore) from central Lake Huron south and modest northeasterly flow, save for Lake Erie/St Clair which are more variable with the low center passing nearby. While gusts over the Bay generally hold 25kts or less, favorable direction leads to higher wave action building through the night. As a result Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Saginaw Bay to Harbor Beach through Saturday afternoon. Low vacates the region by Saturday afternoon ending further precip chances before another developing low quickly follows for Sunday, taking a similar track as the first low. Winds turn westerly ahead of this next system though holding sub 25kts. Low exits by Sunday night setting up weakening northwesterly flow Monday.

HYDROLOGY...

While precipitation will wane somewhat late today, a second disturbance will work into the area and bring up to an additional quarter inch of rain this evening into the overnight. The rain and snow line will largely remain in place north of the I-69 corridor.
Another low pressure system will then form over the central plains and track into the region on Sunday with around one quarter of an inch of rain. No flooding concerns are expected at this time from either of this systems.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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