Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Baltimore, MI

AVIATION

A midlevel trough will amplify over the Great Lakes and northwestern Ontario tonight sending a series of cold fronts through Southeast Michigan tonight and Wednesday. Initial cold air advection is responsible for VFR stratus now emerging downwind of Lake Michigan and MVFR stratocumulus deck now building southward through mbS and the Thumb. Secondary cold front will be much stronger and is timed through the cwa between 10 and 15z. There is some model signal that near surface saturation may result in some light drizzle activity with surface temperatures above freezing in advance of the front. Snow showers and potential very brief snow squalls then appear possible immediately behind the shallow cold front. Have included a TEMPO group for IFR conditions. Then good model signal for improving conditions with dry air for the late morning and afternoon hours before main vorticity maximum clips the forecast area between 21-24z. Additional snow showers will be possible during the late afternoon but coverage is very low confidence.

For DTW... Light snow flurries and drizzle appear possible 9-12z Wednesday morning before the a strong cold front pushes through the area. Snow showers and potential very brief snow squalls will be possible 12-15z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs aob 5000 feet today, medium tonight.

* High for precipitation type of rain this afternoon. High for snow after 06Z Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

Light showers pushed east of the region shortly before time of discussion affording a dry start to the evening as the clipper over the northern Great Lakes reaches eastern Ontario. Arrival of the weak lead cold front after 00Z this evening supports another round of scattered light showers/drizzle mainly north of I-94 where greater column moisture resides. Wider spread precip chances quickly follow overnight as the trailing arctic cold front drops through southern lower MI between 08-14Z. With only modest cold air advection following the lead front, surface/wet bulb temperatures are forecast to be just above freezing in the mid to lower 30s keeping initial precipitation as rain (or rain-snow mix in heavier activity). This however is expected to only last for an hour or so from onset with a quick transition to all snow as temperatures rapidly fall below freezing and into the 20s in the immediate wake of the arctic front. Limited available moisture confines the primary accumulation window along the frontal circulation, which given the higher likelihood for lead rain before transitioning, keeps potential accumulations light- dusting to around a half inch with higher amounts towards an inch being much more isolated.

Additional light snow showers work across SE MI Wednesday morning before the drier arctic airmass can sufficiently cut off lake moisture penetrating this far south. Minimal additional snowfall expected, with most areas seeing a dusting at most. Exception to this still looking to be the easternmost Thumb due to north- northwest winds within the lake aggregate trough drawing long axis Lake Huron banding near/overhead. While it carries high sensitivity to any shift to more pure northwesterly flow, high-res model runs continue to advertise enough of a northerly wind component to maintain defined banding over areas along/east of a Port Austin-Port Sanilac line from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. Should these more persistent/longer duration solutions manifest, there is concern these eastern lakeshore areas to be see accumulations up to 5-7" by Thursday morning. Though more borderline for a warning given the longer duration, opted to issue a Winter Storm Watch for eastern Huron and northeastern Sanilac counties given the consistency amongst the high-res models for onshore banding offering a shot to reach/exceed the 7" warning threshold.

Core of the arctic airmass settles over the central Great Lakes Wednesday-Thursday as 850mb temps fall to -17C. Lows by Thursday morning fall to single digits with wind chills ranging from 0 to -10F. Highs Thursday struggle to break into the 20s with some areas, particularly the Thumb, favored to only top out in the teens. Some moderation occurs Friday in advance of the next clipper dropping out of northern Canada with temps recovering back towards freezing.
Widespread accumulating snowfall (an inch or two) is likely with this system Friday followed by another round of scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries and the return of arctic air for the weekend.

MARINE...

Gusty southwest winds through the afternoon begin to decrease slightly this evening. Isolated gusts to gales are possible within the next few hours but observations thus far suggest lower column stability will continue to hold the stronger magnitude winds aloft.
An arctic cold front will drop across the central Great Lakes Wednesday morning with wind shifting NW to N. Winds again become gusty to around 25 to 30 knots through the day which paired with inbound arctic air will bring heavy freezing spray to Lake Huron, where a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect. Ensemble guidance retains less than a 30% chance for gusts to gales across central/southern Lake Huron Wednesday afternoon and evening. Lake effect snow squalls will increase in coverage through the day as well and persist into Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds speeds steadily decrease Thursday with a passing surface ridge axis, then flip southerly by Friday ahead of the next clipper system.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ361-362.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday for LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.