Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Baltimore, MI

AVIATION

Ridge of high pressure will continue to promote mainly clear skies with lighter winds from the south, although some gusts nearing 20 knots will be possible at times during daylight hours. The pressure gradient will strengthen through the evening and overnight hours, bringing increased sustained winds and gusts through tomorrow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

DISCUSSION...

Upper-level longwave ridge axis translates across Lower Michigan today in response to the phasing of a southern stream speed max with a progressive shortwave trough over north-central CONUS/CAN. Lower column and surface anticylone rolls eastward leading to strengthening south-southwest flow. Additionally, this ushers in an increasingly warm airmass, marked by a jump in 850 mb temperatures of approximately 7C at present to nearly 13C by 21Z today. This translates to highs in the low 70s for most, approximately 10F above climatological normals. Not much moisture to work with for the daylight hours once residual mid-level cloud burns off, aside from some stray cumulus and/or cirrus. Not much cooling anticipated overnight as the low-level jet from the inbound composite wave works eastward into Southeast Michigan. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below the mid 60s as layer-flow cranks up, into the 45-55 knot range between 2 kft and 6 kft AGL. Development of a nocturnal stable amidst ongoing elevated warm frontal passage should prevent the mixing of such enhanced flow into a surface gust response prior to the arrival of the system's cold front on Tuesday.

Strong moisture advection will be underway across the Upper Midwest early tonight and will slowly sag eastward. This leads to some delay in the saturation process across Southeast Michigan. As such, made some downward adjustments to Tuesday morning PoPs with the elevated warm front and initial height falls centered between 09Z and 13Z (up to 40 percent chance). A few rumbles of thunder are possible with the early day activity, although a decent amount of CIN will need to be overcome for any surface-based activity; coverage appears rather sparse. The surface warm front works through shortly after with an established mixed-layer in-place by mid morning. Gust response will be noticed at this time with widespread 30-40 mph non-convective gusts. In spite of overcast skies, SBCAPE will build into the 1000- 1500 J/kg range as mid-level lapse rates improve and surface dewpoints rise within the warm sector amidst 40 knot 0-6 km bulk shear. This sets up a favorable pre-cold frontal environment for convection, although PWATs likely hold AOB 1.50 inches. CAMs have still been somewhat muted in CI. Sufficient instability and impressive dynamics maintain a low-end severe threat for wind and/or hail between 18Z and 22Z. Quick stability settles in behind the front Tuesday evening with notably cooler air.

Dry Wednesday with transition back to ridging and surface high pressure building in from the northern Great Lakes. This stable influence wanes by Wednesday night ahead of the next wave(s) lifting out of The Plains. Potential exists for a prolonged period of showers Wednesday night, Thursday, and/or Friday as isentropic ascent, a few shortwaves, and a trailing cold front lift through Lower Michigan to close out the week with near, or slightly above, normal temperatures.

MARINE...

High pressure passes to the east this morning giving way to increasing south wind through the day. This will reach the 15 to 20 kt range this afternoon with prevailing dry conditions as the high maintains influence. Low pressure arriving from the Midwest will send showers and storms along with a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet over the area overnight. The attendant warm air advection over the cool lakes will result in strong stability - limiting winds at the surface. Ensemble solutions favor gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range late this evening into Tuesday as the warm front passes through, but a handful of solutions with lower stability do produce gusts in the 30 to 35 kt range over central Lake Huron tonight. This is expected to be brief if it occurs. Lower stability over the relatively warmer Saginaw Bay may also allow for southwest gusts to briefly reach 30 to 35 kt during the day Tuesday. As the low tracks across the northern lakes on Tuesday, its cold front trails behind bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. Wind veering to northwest within the post-frontal cold advection will bring the next window for a brief period of 30+ kt gusts over Lake Huron Tuesday evening. Low confidence exists for gales in this window but it will continue to be monitored. High pressure builds in on Wednesday with wind becoming light and variable. The next low is then set to arrive Thursday into Friday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.