New Baltimore, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Baltimore, MI

April 21, 2024 11:42 PM EDT (03:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM
Moonrise 5:17 PM   Moonset 4:43 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 940 Am Edt Sun Apr 21 2024

Rest of today - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy late in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight - .then veering to the northeast early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the evening. A small craft advisory may be needed.

Wednesday - North winds to 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Baltimore, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 212351 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 751 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight for all of Southeast Michigan.

- Warming trend continues Monday with dry and sunny conditions.

- Showers and possibly a thunderstorm arrive Tuesday with gustier winds.

- Dry and cooler conditions return Wednesday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as the 5-6kft diurnal cu field further decreases this evening. Mostly clear skies will prevail tonight with potential for just a few clouds at around 6kft streaming in from the northwest late tonight. Persistent west wind tonight will decrease to around 5 knots for tonight. Tomorrow afternoon will see a diurnal cu field early in the afternoon before high clouds begin to stream in throughout the afternoon ahead of an inbound shortwave trough. Daytime mixing will support a period of gusts to around 20 knots starting in the early afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet through Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 343 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

DISCUSSION...

Cooler resident thermal profile still entrenched to finish the weekend period. Weak surface ridging arrives overnight as deep layer stability strengthens under broader anticyclonic mid level flow as upper heights slowly build. Emerging corridor of warm air advection upstream unlikely to arrive nocturnally with low level flow still veered, affording a reasonable window of solid radiational cooling under the mostly open sky, a very dry mid level profile and diminishing overall gradient flow. A targeted low temperature range of 31 to 35 degrees on track, highlighting some potential for patchy/areas of frost. Frost advisory now in effect overnight after collaboration with surrounding offices.

Modest warming trend Monday as weak warm air advection solidifies under low level southwest flow and capitalizes on a high degree of isolation potential within transient shortwave upper ridging. High temperatures arriving invof average - lower 60s. Strengthening upper level jet streak emerging along the south flank of a mid level system ejecting out of southwest Canada will direct a plume of higher moisture eastward toward the region. Associated uptick in mid level moist isentropic ascent will bring a good chance for light rain development late Monday night into early Tuesday. Exit pace of this initial period of supportive upward vertical motion will dictate duration window, if any, for dry conditions to exist into Tuesday afternoon, before attention turns to the inbound mid level wave set to arrive Tuesday night. Some improvement in mixing depth with time translates into gusty southwest conditions for the afternoon.
Combination of dcva and frontal forcing acting on steep mid level lapse rates then yields a higher probability for convective shower development from northwest to southeast Tuesday evening into early Tuesday night. General reduction in column stability above 700 mb affords an isolated t-storm opportunity, but too limited in magnitude or depth to bring concern for greater organization.

Remainder of the mid week period marked by dry and stable conditions as expansive high pressure settles in beneath weakly confluent mid level northwest flow. Sustained period of cold air advection results in well below average temperatures Wednesday. Magnitude of this cold air intrusion brings renewed frost/freeze considerations for Wednesday night as the surface high centers over the local area.
Benign weather lasting through at least Thursday as dry low level easterly flow maintains control within lingering ridging. Modest warming trend as geopotential heights build with time, but with temps still on the cooler side of average Thursday.

Prototypical corridor of warm/moist air advection emerges upstream late next week, responding to increasing magnitude and depth of southwest flow ahead of a mid level wave ejecting out of the southwest conus. This pattern offers increasing likelihood for rain to manifest within the broader zone of isentropic ascent along an advancing elevated warm frontal boundary. This will establish a period of wet conditions sometime late Friday into Friday night.
Less defined forecast heading into next weekend, with the detail reliant on behavior of the governing wave as it continues northeast into the upper miss valley and any corresponding response downstream within the warm sector.

MARINE...

Breezy conditions are in place today with northwest flow over Lake Huron leading to improved fetch through the northern half of the basin. This offers peak winds near 30 knots through this evening as a trough/frontal axis clips the northern waterways. Elsewhere, high pressure builds into the region resulting in a relaxed pressure gradient late tonight and into Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory will expire over Saginaw Bay this evening as waves respond to decreasing wind speeds, attributed to the influence of high pressure. The composite ridge gets displaced toward the east Monday afternoon as a closed low over Saskatchewan opens up and phases with a jet streak as the merged upper-level wave crosses into the High Plains. This backs winds southerly by Monday afternoon with enhanced flow across Lake Huron, including some diurnally drive gusts to around 30 knots for a few hours. The low then crosses central Ontario on Tuesday bringing a period of showers, a few thunderstorms, and stronger southwesterly winds to the Great Lakes.
Brisk northerly flow ensues Wednesday with some low-end potential for gales.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
AGCM4 10 mi55 min 47°F30.02
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi43 min W 9.9G13 49°F 30.08
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 30 mi55 min 30.01
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 32 mi55 min WNW 5.1G7 30.01
PBWM4 32 mi55 min 30.01


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI 7 sm46 minWSW 0810 smClear48°F25°F40%30.03
KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI 21 sm49 minW 0810 smClear50°F25°F37%30.07
KPHN ST CLAIR COUNTY INTL,MI 23 sm27 mincalm10 smClear41°F30°F65%30.06
Link to 5 minute data for KMTC


Wind History from MTC
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Detroit, MI,



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