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FXUS63 KMKX 040310 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 910 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 909 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

The w-e sfc trough extending from the low over upstate NY will continue to move ewd and be replaced by a weak n-s sfc ridge for Mon-Mon eve over srn WI. The subsidence and drying will unlikely be sufficient to dissipate the stratus clouds, but some breaks are expected with better chances over ern WI. Will maintain low temps in the middle 20s to lower 30s tnt as breaks in cloud cover and lgt winds could easily cool the surface. Highs in the middle to upper 30s for Mon.

Gehring

SHORT TERM
(Issued 300 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

Tonight through Tuesday:

The last of the very light snow/light rain will exit the eastern parts of the area in the next hour or two, as the main 500 mb shortwave trough shifts to the east. Expect low clouds to linger tonight into Monday night across the area, with generally light winds. There is a small chance (around 20 percent) of light fog developing in south central Wisconsin overnight into early Monday morning. However, the low clouds should limit this potential, so left out of forecast for now. The low clouds should limit lows to the middle to upper 20s tonight, though they may be a little warmer than currently forecast. Highs Monday should reach the middle to upper 30s.

Models and ensembles continue to take the low pressure system to the southwest of the area Monday night and to the south on Tuesday morning. This is accompanied by a 500 mb shortwave trough and associated differential CVA, though the best upward vertical motion looks to be southwest of the area. Still, there is enough moisture and upward vertical motion to likely (around 60 percent chance) bring a round of light snow to areas along and south of a Lone Rock to Port Washington line later Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.

Forecast QPF and snowfall amounts are generally around the 75th percentile of NBM, and 50th percentile of Model Certainty. This equates to less than an inch for the southern parts of the area.
Far northern portions of the area have more uncertainty with seeing any snowfall, as 25th percentile for QPF and snow there are nearly or at zero. This would be a wetter, more liquid content type of snow, and may affect the early Tuesday morning commute.
Things should dry out by later in the day, with highs still reaching into the middle to upper 30s.

Wood

LONG TERM
(Issued 300 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Extended cluster analysis of 500 mb heights suggest an anomalous ridge setting up to the west on Wednesday, then shifting east over and through the region Thursday into Friday. The amplitude of the ridge axis remains in question, but some kind of ridge appears likely to move through. This should allow for south to southwest winds to develop during this period, with steady warm air advection. This should result in a period of warming temperatures, as shown by the NBM box a whisker temperature probabilities by Thursday and Friday. Raised highs into the 50s Thursday, and may need warmer highs for Friday in later forecasts. More uncertainty exists into the weekend, as a 500 mb trough develops somewhere over the central part of the country and tries to shift eastward.
This may bring low pressure near the region during this period.
Several GEFS/CMC ensemble members do show a measurable precipitation during this time, so left NBM PoPs going for now.

Wood

AVIATION
(Issued 909 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

MVFR Cigs will prevail tnt-Mon nt, but areas of VFR Cigs will occur at times especially over far ern WI late tnt and Mon. Light snow will then develop from west to east across srn WI from late Mon eve into the overnight. Vsbys will fall to 1-3SM with the lgt snow.

Gehring

MARINE
(Issued 300 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

Low pressure will continue to move east of the region tonight.
Winds will gradually shift to the north and northwest during this time. Low pressure is then expected to move from North Dakota to southwest Minnesota Monday, then across Iowa into northern Illinois Monday night and southeast of the region on Tuesday.
Modest winds Monday into Monday night should become north to northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Increasing south to southwest winds may occur later in the week, with winds approaching Small Craft Advisory levels at times Wednesday into next weekend.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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