Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poestenkill, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A light accumulation of wet snow is expected for northern areas for this morning through Monday morning, although impacts will generally be minor and confined to high terrain areas due to marginal temperatures.

2) Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected for most of next week, along with mainly dry weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A warm front associated with an approaching clipper-like system will bring spotty light precipitation through mid morning for areas mainly north of I-90. P-type will be mainly snow, though as warmer air aloft builds in from the southwest, a changeover to sleet and perhaps pockets of freezing rain/rain will be possible. Closer to and south of I-90, a few passing snow/rain showers will be possible, especially prior to daybreak. Snowfall accumulations through mid morning should range from 1-3" across the southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and higher terrain in southern VT, with generally less than an inch elsewhere.

The warm front is expected to eventually stall in the vicinity of I- 90 later this morning/early afternoon before sinking back southward.
Additional waves of rain showers will then track eastward near the front later this morning through this afternoon for areas near and south of I-90.

Showers will continue tonight mainly for areas south of I-90. Low pressure developing across PA will then track eastward across NJ and eventually off the SE New England coast on Monday. Colder air will be sinking southward to the north of this low track, and allow rain showers to eventually change to snow before tapering off Monday morning for areas near and south of I-90. Accumulations should generally remain light, mainly a coating to less than an inch mainly on colder surfaces. There is a low chance (10-20%) that a few pockets of freezing rain/freezing drizzle develop closer to, or just south of I-90 after midnight as the colder air seeps southward while ice nuclei in the clouds decrease.

As the main upper level trough slowly moves across Monday, additional scattered snow/rain showers will be possible across the region into the afternoon, possibly enhanced close to I-90 where some added Mohawk-Hudson Convergence processes will be possible.

Gusty south winds will become likely around and shortly after daybreak today, especially close to the Capital Region and nearby Hudson River Valley where some gusts up to 30-35 may occur before decreasing later this morning and afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of this system, cooler temperatures are expected to start the week. Highs will be in the 30s for the entire area on Monday, with 30s and 40s for Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain chilly with plenty of 20s early in the week. Despite the cool weather, it should be fairly dry to start the week.

Temperatures will start to moderate towards midweek and will be a little closer to normal by Wednesday and Thursday. Another northern stream clipper may bring some rain and mountain snow showers by the middle of the week, with another similar system bringing additional rain/snow showers for Thursday into early Friday. Precipitation looks relatively light with both systems.
As a result, impactful weather is not anticipated through the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06z/Mon...VFR flying conditions continue across the terminals despite an incoming warm front leading to showers as seen on the latest radar reflectivity. However, low-level dry air seen in the 12 UTC ALY sounding is limiting these showers from reaching the ground. Only show a TEMPO group for snow showers and MVFR cigs/vis at GFl from 6 - 10 UTC with dry conditions prevailing at ALB, PSF and POU where ceilings remain 9-10 kft. Southeast winds turn gusty by 12 UTC with sustained winds 8-12kts and gusts up to 20-25kts.

A few scattered showers remain possible from 13 to 17 UTC and we show TEMPO groups at GFL, ALB, and PSF for MVFR vis/cigs before the main cold front approaches this afternoon leading to an organized area of rain that pushes from northwest to southeast. MVFR vis/cigs prevail once the rain arrives by 16 to 18 UTC at ALB/GFL/PSF with POU remaining dry until closer to 21 UTC. Brief periods of IFR cigs/vis are possible during the steady afternoon which we show in PROB30 groups. Most of the rain ends shortly after 00 UTC and while GFL/ALB should trend back to VFR shortly thereafter, IFR/MVFR cigs look to linger at PSF/POU through the end of the TAF period. Winds shift to the north-northwest once the rain ends sustained 5-10kts and gusts up to 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of RA
SN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of RA
SN.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.