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FXUS61 KALY 022358 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 658 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cloudy conditions with patchy fog will persist tonight with some rain moving in with the next system prior to noontime.
Rain will overspread the area with snow mixing with the rain across the southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont during the afternoon followed by a changeover to snow in the evening. The snow will taper by Monday morning with light to locally moderate accumulations over the mountains north and east of the Capital Region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

UPDATE as of 628 PM EDT
Weak cold front continues to sag south of the I-90 corridor with abundant low-level moisture in place. Boundary will stall south of the region tonight with next next pressure system moving northeast of the TN Valley towards daybreak. Some adjustments to clouds and temps for the overnight. Did tweak patchy fog. Temps will be in the 30s to lower 40s.

.PREV DISCUSSION [0357]...
A stalled boundary across the region will settle southward tonight as a short wave moves off to our east, while aloft some ridging will develop upstream ahead of an approaching trough. Dreary and cloudy tonight with some drizzle and fog. 12Z ALY sounding shows saturated conditions below 700 mb with a couple of inversion in place and this is expected to persist. Temperatures are expected to drop back into to the 30s and lower 40s tonight with little change in readings across the southern Adirondacks which are already to the north of boundary.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Accumulating wet snow expected across the southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont Sunday afternoon and night.

Another complex event for the area with southern and northern stream energy in play. Two surface lows will develop in response with an interior low passing over the eastern Great Lakes and northern New York and another along the mid-Atlantic coast tracking northeastward along the coast. Our region will be caught into inbetween with an occluded boundary lifting through Sunday night. Widespread rain is expected to develop and overspread the area Sunday morning. Initially thermal profiles will support rain, however snow will mix in with the rain across southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont during the afternoon as temperatures fall and precipitation rates pick up. A transition to all wet snow is expected in the evening mainly above 1500 feet across southern Adirondacks, upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont. The steady precipitation will taper off south to north as the occluded boundary lifts through overnight. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected with the higher totals across the higher terrain. The area expected to receive 4 inches is not great enough to warrant a winter weather advisory at this time, but this could change.

The weather remain unsettled as another trough moves across the region Monday. Also flow low level flow will favor enhancement off the lakes. Looking showers during the day Monday especially across the higher terrain with mainly snow across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens with rain in the valleys transiting to snow in the evening. Overall chances for showers will decrease Monday night as the trough moves off to our east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Tuesday and Tuesday night still in question as a short wave moves though an upper level trough with weak surface low pressure south of the area. Short wave is positively tilted which usually leads to light precipitation and limits it to the higher terrain. For now, mostly cloudy Tuesday with some snow showers in the hill towns.
Mainly fair weather expected for Wednesday through Friday. A warm front may cross the area on Saturday which could lead to clouds and precipitation.

Ensemble guidance shows lower than normal upper heights Wed-Thu and normal heights Fri with surface high pressure. Heights moderate to above normal on Saturday. So, generally near to slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday with a milder Saturday expected.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front will move south of the region tonight, but then lift back northward with a wave of low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley late tomorrow morning with periods of rain returning through the day.

Widespread IFR conditions with areas of LIFR early this evening for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Abundant low-level moisture is trapped in the low levels of the atmosphere. Patchy to areas of fog and stratus. Conditions may worse to widespread LIFR for locations like KPOU/KGFL/KALB before some minor improvement to IFR / low MVFR between 08Z-14Z SUN with the rain moving in. KPSF may have an easterly flow to allow bases to improve to IFR/MVFR between 08-12Z/SUN, but IFR cigs and possibly vsbys are a good bet prior to 06Z/SUN.

Expect widespread IFR conditions in rainfall in the late morning through the afternoon. Some minor lapses to LIFR conditions may occur into the afternoon.

The winds will be light to calm early tonight, and then will be north/northeast to east at 7 KT or less from the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Troy
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