Poestenkill, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poestenkill, NY

June 14, 2024 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:14 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM
Moonrise 1:16 PM   Moonset 1:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poestenkill, NY
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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 141415 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1015 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A swift-moving cold front will track through the region today, bringing showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe south and east of the Capital District. High pressure behind the front will then ensure a beautiful, dry weekend before a significant warm up is expected next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

UPDATE
As of 10 AM EDT, band of mainly light rain showers continues to translate east/southeast from southern VT into the Capital Region and south into the eastern Catskills. This band should continue eastward over the next 1-2 hours, and may weaken slightly.

Latest SPC Mesoanalysis depicts MU CAPES of 250-500 J/kg across the region, with pockets of slightly higher values across the SW Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley where some breaks in the clouds are occurring. There is considerable low level CINH along and east of the Hudson River due to the extensive mid level cloud cover and associated showers.

We expect the current band of showers to continue shifting east of the region by late morning. In its wake, we expect some clearing to develop. This should allow instability to increase across the region, however there will also be drier air from aloft mixing downward (noted on upstream 12Z/BUF sounding)
which should decrease instability early this afternoon for areas near and north of I-90. The leading edge of this slightly drier air should be developing close to the Capital Region, southern VT and NE Catskills early this afternoon before slowly shifting southeast. Areas to the south/east of this low level moisture gradient will be more susceptible to greater instability, along with greater forcing from weak shortwave/height falls approaching from the west.

So, greatest threat for strong to perhaps a few severe thunderstorms will be mainly south/east of Albany this afternoon, particularly across the SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern/central Taconics and NW CT into the Berkshires.
Strong wind gusts and some hail will be possible with any stronger storms that develop, especially if they form into small clusters/bowing segments.

Farther north and west, although isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop closer to the actual cold front approaching from the northwest, a deeper layer of dry air and reduced instability should keep coverage much more limited.

Afternoon temps may spike into the lower/mid 80s in some areas once some clearing develops across the Capital Region, upper Hudson Valley and eastern Mohawk Valley, with generally upper 70s to lower 80s expected elsewhere.

PREVIOUS UPDATE
As of 7 AM EDT
Aforementioned line of showers has pretty much broken apart outside of some scattered showers and sprinkles in southern Vermont. Today's cold front has reached northwest New York and will continue to track south and east throughout the day. Only minor adjustments were needed with this update to keep consistency with latest obs and trends.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains in good shape. See the previous discussion below for additional details pertaining to today's forecast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A band of showers continues to progress further south and east through the Southwest Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley this morning in association with a pre-frontal trough rotating through the region ahead of a cool frontal boundary currently located along the International border. Embedded pulses of lightning have been previously noted within this line as it has crossed through central New York, but with little to no instability within our CWA, have weakened to mere light to moderate rain showers.

The pre-frontal trough has dug further south and east into the region than previous thinking suggested, allowing showers to be maintained further south and east. And while the KENX radar seems to show a gradual weakening trend, a few showers cannot be ruled out as far south as the Capital District this morning and perhaps as far east as southern Vermont. Latest CAMs indicate this line falling completely apart before it reaches areas south of Albany as the upper disturbance begins to fill to the north and east with its parent surface low tracking further north, deeper into Quebec. However, with the axis of the upper impulse noted through SPC Mesoanalysis as being more or less overhead, it is possible that sufficient forcing could sustain light showers as far south as the Mid-Hudson Valley and into the Taconics despite its increased distance from the boundary. Once this batch of showers dissipates later this morning, dry conditions will be reinforced briefly as the cold front continues to encroach further from the northwest. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms can then be expected this afternoon along its southeast track through eastern New York and western New England.

Likely due to the ongoing convection this morning, latest CAMs show some disagreement in their solutions to convection this afternoon. The main source of uncertainty seems to be the exact location of initiation this afternoon ahead of the front and the resultant spatial extent of convection. Because of the showers and few embedded thunderstorms that tracked through the Southwest Adirondacks late this past evening and this morning, a sufficient loss of energy will likely force additional development further south towards the Capital District. That's not to say that a few showers and an isolated rumble of thunder won't be possible in this area later this morning as the front approaches, but this paired with the more favored forcing to the south and east certainly shifts focus away from this area.

The primary focus for convective re-development ahead of and along the front rests primarily within the eastern Mohawk Valley and greater Capital District where upper-level forcing continues to be favored. With a shortwave trough closely accompanying the front providing enhanced PVA along its leading edge and the right entrance region of a weakening, though still sufficient, upper-level jet streak, large scale ascent will be favored from the aforementioned areas south and east. Breaks of sun ahead of the fropa during peak heating hours will help SBCAPE rise towards 1000-1500 J/kg with pockets potentially closer to 2000 J/kg within the Mid-Hudson Valley, Southern Berkshires and Litchfield County. Higher regions of instability will intersect deep-layer shear near 30-40 kt with marginal mid-level lapse rates between 6-7 C/km and high low-level lapse rates increasing to 8-9 C/km by this afternoon. Initial storm motion oriented nearly perpendicular to the progression of the boundary will likely lead to discrete storm modes, though a gradual congealing into a linear segment is likely given backing flow.

All that said, current thinking points towards discrete cells developing likely within the eastern Mohawk Valley and greater Capital District early this afternoon with a gradual increase in spatial coverage as the front continues to track further south and east. Later this afternoon, as the axis of the upper shortwave nears, spatial coverage of storms will likely increase within the Mid-Hudson Valley, becoming more of a linear segment that tracks south and east into western New England (specifically the Southern Berkshires and Litchfield County)
through this evening. It is in these areas that the likelihood of severe thunderstorms increases with a focus on strong to potentially damaging winds and possible large hail as the main threats. Thermal profiles indicate DCAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg with mean flow near 25 kt and low-level dry air that could promote stronger wind gusts. Additionally, higher cloud-layer shear could promote longer sustainment of hailstones, leading to larger growth. However, with fairly moist mid-levels and warm antecedent environments, it is very possible that hail could undergo a good deal of melting before reaching the ground. But certainly hail sizes reaching 1" in diameter or potentially larger cannot be ruled out. The final concern with these storms will be heavy downpours. PWATs look to increase to about 1.5" throughout the region and stronger forcing will aid in thunderstorms producing heavy rain rates at times. Ponding of water in poor drainage and urban areas is definitely possible and an isolated flash flood cannot be ruled out especially in prone areas, but relatively dry antecedent conditions limit the concern for widespread hydro issues.

High temperatures today will be fairly variable given the anticipated conditions. Anticipate upper 60s to low 70s at higher elevations with mid/upper 70s to low 80s in valley areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Showers and thunderstorms look to taper off quickly this evening upon the full passage of cold front and the loss of daytime heating. In the wake of the front and the full rotation of the upper shortwave through the region, Canadian high pressure builds in from northwest to southeast to reinforce dry conditions for the weekend. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low to upper 50s with pockets of upper 40s above 1500 ft.

A newly enforced, cooler airmass will bring highs down to the mid/upper 60s to mid/upper 70s for Saturday as upper-level ridging amplifies across the region. Saturday night will be quite chilly by June standards with lows widely in the 40s with upper 30s in the SW Adirondacks. Sunday will then begin a warming period as the ridge axis builds in overhead. Anticipate highs in the low to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weak upper impulse it expected to track through northern areas Sunday night into Monday with just an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the southern Adirondacks. Once this upper impulse exits, upper ridging will build into the eastern U.S. and will amplify.

There is an increasing consensus from sources of guidance/ensembles that the very strong upper ridging will be centered in the southern Appalachians to OH Valley by Tuesday and overhead in the northeastern U.S. by Wednesday. Then, there are disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles whether the upper ridging builds back south or if it builds east and offshore by Thursday. Either way, extreme heat along with oppressive humidity is likely Tuesday through Thursday. Some record highs are possible. Will some areas, including Albany, reach 100 degrees at some point Tuesday through Thursday? It is not likely but not out of the question.

There are hints of some isolated diurnal thunderstorms each afternoon but strong midlevel and upper level capping with the strong upper ridging will limit those possibilities. Any convective clouds or cloud debris could filter the sun just enough to prevent maximum heat. The 500 hPa heights are forecasted to be extremely anomalously high, increasing confidence in the extreme heat over the region.

High temperatures Monday well into the 80s with around 80 higher terrain. Then, the extreme heat arrives. High temperatures Tuesday in the lower to mid 90s with upper 80s higher terrain. It may feel like around 100 degrees in some areas due to the humidity. Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the mid to upper 90s with around 90 in higher terrain. It will feel like 100 or more in some areas. There will not be much relief at night as lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. There are signals of some gradual relief and cooler temperatures at the end of next week.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Line of weakening showers around KALB for the next hour or two.
Then, a new line of showers and scattered thunderstorms is expected to develop after about 15Z near or just south and east of KALB. Other showers will form around KGFL and including showers with MVFR conditions between about 15Z-19Z at KGFL and KALB. As the thunderstorms develop in the afternoon, including a brief period of thunder at KALB between 19Z-20Z, that will likely be shifted either earlier or later, depending on the actual observed storms later today.

The best coverage and duration of showers and storms is expected at KPOU and KPSF, where thunderstorms are included between about 20Z- 23Z with MVFR conditions. Some brief bursts to IFR are possible in the heaviest rain but too brief to include in TAFs. By 22Z-24Z, rain exits KALB and KGFL, while some showers could linger at KPOU and KPSF until around 02Z-03Z. VFR conditions expected once the showers and storms exit this evening.

Steady south winds through this morning at 10 Kt or less, with a gust around 15 Kt at times at KALB and KPSF. Thunderstorms could have gusts to 35 Kt this afternoon. Winds shift to west and northwest this afternoon at 10 Kt or less and then to north at less than 10 Kt this evening through tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAQW HARRIMANANDWEST,MA 13 sm27 minNNE 0610 smMostly Cloudy79°F68°F70%29.87
KDDH WILLIAM H MORSE STATE,VT 16 sm44 minS 0710 smClear73°F64°F73%29.88
KPSF PITTSFIELD MUNI,MA 19 sm44 minSSW 048 smMostly Cloudy72°F66°F83%29.89
KALB ALBANY INTL,NY 21 sm47 minS 0710 smMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%29.86
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Wind History graph: AQW
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Tide / Current for Troy, Hudson River, New York
   
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Troy
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Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:42 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
12
am
4.3
1
am
3.8
2
am
3
3
am
2.4
4
am
1.9
5
am
1.3
6
am
0.8
7
am
1
8
am
1.9
9
am
3.1
10
am
3.9
11
am
4.3
12
pm
4.4
1
pm
3.9
2
pm
3.1
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
1
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0.1
8
pm
0.8
9
pm
2
10
pm
3.1
11
pm
3.9


Tide / Current for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 01:19 AM EDT     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:08 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:34 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Albany, New York, Tide feet
12
am
4.2
1
am
3.7
2
am
2.9
3
am
2.3
4
am
1.8
5
am
1.2
6
am
0.7
7
am
1.1
8
am
2.1
9
am
3.2
10
am
4
11
am
4.3
12
pm
4.4
1
pm
3.8
2
pm
2.9
3
pm
2.1
4
pm
1.5
5
pm
0.9
6
pm
0.2
7
pm
0.2
8
pm
1
9
pm
2.2
10
pm
3.2
11
pm
3.9


Weather Map
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Albany, NY,




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