Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poestenkill, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Messages:

- Widespread rainfall across the region tonight through Saturday, with probability for greater than 1.00" of 40-70%.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms(20-40% chance) expected Saturday afternoon into early evening, with locally gusty winds possible.

Discussion:

Update as of 730 PM EDT...Bands of rain showers were ongoing across portions of western and central NY into northeast PA at this hour, with more numerous activity back to the west across western PA into OH. All of this was associated with the warm front draped across the NY/PA border into the Great Lakes. As this front continues to lift northward with a further increase in lift with an approaching shortwave and developing surface low, expect coverage to increase overnight. Main changes were made to POPs to account for new guidance, otherwise the current forecast is on track
See previous discussion below

Previous Discussion...A warm front will continue to gradually lift north of the area this evening, with some showers and isolated thunder across far northern areas. Later this evening and especially into the overnight hours, showers will become more widespread as larger scale forcing increases as an upper level short wave and associated surface cyclone approach from the west. Deep layer moisture increases as PWAT anomalies rise to +2 to +3 tonight into Sat morning, so brief periods of heavy rain may occur at times especially within any embedded elevated convective elements. With clouds/showers occurring, low temperatures will be mild with mainly 50s expected.

Widespread showers continue through much of Sat morning. It appears there will then be a break during the late morning to early afternoon hours as much of our area gets into a pseudo warm sector ahead of a cold front approaching from central NY.
Most CAMs continue to depict a broken line of showers/T-storms developing in the warm/moist environment. Threat of severe storms still looks rather low, with forecast SBCAPE ~500-800 J/Kg from Albany south/east. With 0-6 km shear of 40-50 kt, some storms may briefly become organized with some strong wind gusts possible. High temperatures could spike into the lower 70s in lower elevations prior to the cold front passage late afternoon.
Timing of the front still somewhat in question, but overall trend has been for a slower passage. Total rainfall expected to range from 0.75-1.50", which should not result in any hydro concerns given recent dry conditions.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- Gusty northwest winds Sunday with a 30-70+% chance for gusts exceeding 40 mph (greatest chances across higher terrain).

Discussion:

As the primary surface cyclone tracks into Maine, the system's upper level low will move into northern NY/VT Sat night. This will result in wrap-around/upslope showers developing across parts of the Adirondacks into the southern Greens of VT.
Temperatures get cold enough late Sat night into Sun morning for rain showers to mix with/change to snow showers mainly above 1500 ft. A dusting of snow may occur in some of these higher terrain spots. Otherwise, widely scattered rain showers expected across most of the area. Lows Sat night will be much cooler ranging from 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower elevations.

NW winds will become quite gusty on Sun due to pressure gradient increasing, as low pressure tracks into E. Maine and high pressure builds east across the upper/central Great Lakes.
Peak wind gusts of 30-40 mph expected especially from around I-90 south. Precip. chances will lower by late Sun afternoon, as the upper low moves farther away. Highs will be below normal, with 40s in the mountains and 50s in valleys.

Dry conditions with clearing skies expected Sun night, as high pressure builds in from the west. There will still be a persistent NW breeze as the center of the high remains to our west. Lows will range from 30s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 40s in lower elevations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Messages:

- Potential for severe thunderstorms (15-29% chance) Tuesday afternoon and evening mainly north and west of the Capital District.

Discussion:

High pressure will be positioned across the region on Mon, bringing dry/clear conditions along with a milder air mass.
Temperatures will warm back to above normal levels Mon afternoon.

The next chance of impactful weather looks to be late Tue into Tue night, with strong to severe T-storms possible. A warm S-SW flow will occur ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. highs could approach 80F in lower elevations.
Based on the latest model guidance timing looks to be the main issue as it will depend on if storms are able to maintain strength after dark, as the cold front is expected to move through our area Tue night. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has the NW third of our area under an equivalent Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms. The wind field looks quite strong with 0-6 km shear of 40+ kt. So it will depend on magnitude of instability after dark. Will continue to monitor trends.

Behind the cold front, it will turn cooler and drier on Wed.
Highs still look slightly above normal with a NW breeze. High pressure builds in Wed night into Thu with dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The next system looks to approach Thu night into Fri with chances for showers increasing.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions to start are expected to deteriorate into tonight with an approaching system and frontal boundary. Plentiful lift and moisture will result in scattered rain showers this evening becoming more widespread beginning after 06-08Z, which will continue into the mid morning hours Saturday. This activity will produce MVFR to IFR ceilings, with visibilities expected to remain in the MVFR range. Widespread rain will become more scattered in nature by 26/18Z, though MVFR ceilings are favored for the remainder of the period. Late in the period, there is potential for an isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of KALB/KPOU, but low confidence precludes mention in the current TAF.

Winds will increase out of the south with gusts to around 15-20 kts this evening, veering to the southwest by midday Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35 kts. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.