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FXUS61 KALY 112058 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 358 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Brisk winds will weaken this evening and lingering snow showers will end. Colder tonight with lows in the teens and 20s. Fair weather Tuesday with lake effect snows developing Tuesday night into Wednesday with the passage of a cold front.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Some upslope and lake enhancement snow showers mainly west of Hudson River will linger into this evening as the upper trough axis swings through late in the day into the evening with mainly a coating of snow possible. A colder air mass is being ushered in on brisk and gusty westerly winds. The winds will weaken through the evening as higher pressure builds in at the surface. Expecting lows in the teens mainly above 2000 feet with 20s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Lake effect snows expected into the Adirondacks Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Fair weather expected Tuesday with weak ridging moving across the region. Southwesterly flow will develop between the suppressing ridge and an advancing cold front. High temperatures will be seasonal in the 30s to lower 40s with 20s limited across the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.

There is limited moisture associated with the cold front, however with its passage low level flow and the temperature differential will become favorable for lake effect snows off of Lake Ontario. Initially the flow will focus lake effect into the far northwestern corner of our forecast area, northern Herkimer and northwestern Hamilton counties, through the overnight. Low level flow will shift becoming more northwesterly and the lake effect snows will shift southward during the day Wednesday and is expected to impact the Thruway in the western Mohawk Valley in the afternoon hours. It's looking like an advisory level snow, 4 to 6 inches, is likely across northern Herkimer County into Hamilton. There is the possibility for warning level snow (7+ inches) in northern Herkimer County, however do not have the confidence to issue a Winter Storm Watch.

Not as cold Tuesday night with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Not much rebound in temperatures in some areas Wednesday in cold air advection. Expecting highs in the 30s with 20s across the higher terrain, above 1500 feet and around 40 degrees in the mid- Hudson Valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A departing shortwave trough will sustain some very localized, light lake effect showers in the Mohawk Valley and Eastern Catskills overnight Wednesday before dry conditions return Thursday morning.
Heights will be on the rise aloft as a large-scale ridge builds across central CONUS and a 1040 hPa surface high spreads across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Despite plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be on the cooler side Thursday with prevailing northwesterly flow aloft. Expect temperatures in the 30s in valley areas with 20s above 1000 ft.

Upper-level ridging and its subsequent surface high will become suppressed as they move eastward Thursday night into Friday with the strengthening of an upper low overhead in eastern Canada. Ample subsidence under the influence of the high in addition to the already moisture-starved system will keep any precipitation at bay despite the extension of a warm front into the region Friday morning. Flow will become more zonal in nature, and warm air advection will allow a fairly substantial increase in temperatures to the low to upper 40s throughout the valleys and 30s above 1500 ft for highs Friday. A weak cold front in association with the same upper low will track through the region Saturday, though persistent zonal flow and lack of moisture will not only keep conditions dry, but drop temperatures just a couple degrees past Friday. Dry conditions will continue into Sunday as the surface high continues to dominate as it continues to push eastward. Sunday's temperatures will be similar to Friday and Saturday with highs primarily in the 40s and 30s above 1500 ft.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure continues to move northeast into the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will briefly build in from the Mid Atlantic Region overnight before the next weak disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes Region tomorrow.

Some MVFR/low VFR stratocumulus continues this afternoon in the wake of the storm system. The MVFR cigs are in the 1.5-2.5 kft AGL range at KALB/KPSF and will likely impact KGFL. KPOU will remain VFR in the 3.5-4.0 kft AGL range. The cigs should improve 21Z/MON-00Z/TUE with SCT-BKN VFR cigs in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range prior to 06Z/TUE. Expect clearing skies with few-sct stratocumulus and sct-bkn cirrus moving in prior to 12Z-14Z/TUE.
A few snow showers may linger near KPSF/KGFL with VCSH groups included prior to 22Z/MON.

The winds will increase from the west to northwest at 12-18 KT with some gusts 25-30 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds will decrease to 10 KT or less between 00Z-06Z/TUE...and will be west to southwest at 4-8 KT overnight. The winds will be south to southwest 5-10 KT late tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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