Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elmwood Park, WI
March 28, 2024 12:22 PM CDT (17:22 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 7:14 PM Moonrise 11:02 PM Moonset 7:56 AM |
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Thu Mar 28 2024
Rest of today - West wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering north early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday - North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the morning, then veering east early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night - East wind 10 to 15 knots becoming 5 to 15 knots early in the morning. Rain through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ600
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
  (hide/show)  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KMKX 281514 AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1014 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will lead to low minimum relative humidity this afternoon, particulary from Madison westward, leading to some burning concerns.
- Friday temperatures will be on the warm side but strong cooling from the lake is expected due largely to the east to southeast winds.
- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.
UPDATE
Issued 1000 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Forecast remains largely on track for today though we will be monitoring dewpoints and RH very closely today for fire weather purposes as we could anticipate some additional mixing aloft and thus some lower RHs.
Kuroski
SHORT TERM
Issued 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today through Friday:
High pressure will spread into the region through today, leading to mostly clear skies. Winds will remain slightly elevated this morning and lead to wind chills in the teens, mainly before 10am. We'll then warm into the afternoon, reaching highs in the mid to upper 40s.
While fuels aren't particularly dry, there are some fire weather concerns today as a model soundings show a well mixed dry boundary layer this afternoon amid continuing westerly winds around 15 to 20 mph. HRRR guidance shows mean RH values dropping into the upper 20s west of Madison, with ensemble min RH values dropping even further into the upper teens. This may meet operational thresholds for prescribed burns today, so we'll have to monitor conditions throughout the afternoon.
Lows will drop into mid 20s again tonight as skies remain clear and winds ease as the center of high pressure moves over the state.
Clouds then increase Friday as a warm front sets up south of the state and warm advection increases over the region. Areas away from Lake Michigan will see highs in the 50s, while areas along the lakeshore will see temperatures dampened into the 40s by cool onshore flow.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Friday night through Wednesday:
Precipitation is expected to blossom along the warm front parked over central to northern IL Friday night as a subtle shortwave imparts PVA over the region and enhances lift. The NBM paints likely PoPs (60 to 70%) from 00z to 06z Saturday for most of the area and then along the lakeshore from 06z to 12z Saturday.
Thunder chances aren't looking great with the most recent model runs, as the 00z GFS has 100 to 300 J/kg sneaking into the southern half of our CWA around midnight. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out, but have mostly confined slight thunder chances (20%) to along the WI/IL border overnight Friday into Saturday. Rain should then quickly shift east and exit after 12z Saturday following the wave with subsidence in the wake of the wave then dampening rain chances for Saturday.
Still looking like a warm front/stationary front boundary will remain in place over central to northern IL following an area of weak high pressure that'll pass quickly from west to east Saturday into Sunday morning. Multiple weak waves are then expected to propagate eastward along the baroclinic zone from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday giving on and off rain chances during this time. Rain chances should taper late Tuesday as a low pressure system moves along the front and kicks the front away from the upper Midwest. We'll generally be on the northern side of this swath of precipitation, so while we should see mostly rain Sunday into Monday, colder air could intrude Monday night into Tuesday, giving some areas of our CWA a rain snow mix.
Ensemble probs of greater than or equal to 1 inch of precipitation still show model differences into the middle of next week, with the GEFS favoring a more northern track to the rain giving us better chances of getting in on more beneficial rain. The EPS still favors more southern track to the precipitation into next week giving the eastern Corn Belt the lions share of the moisture. With track differences still evident this morning between the GEFS and EPS, there are still some details that need to be worked out with the Sunday - Tuesday system (likely relating to where the front will park) so stay tuned as we begin to hone the forecast into the weekend.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 1015 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Largely clear skies expected today with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There is an area of SCT to BKN MVFR this morning located over parts of southern WI that could slide south over Waukesha and Milwaukee but as of right now this area of CIGS looks to be dissipating and seems unable to slide south enough to impact these sites. Thus the current expectation is for VFR conditions to continue. Into Friday while clouds will be moving in ahead of the next system all clouds will be VFR until likely Friday evening/night when lower CIGS become more likely with rain and perhaps even some thunder.
Kuroski
MARINE
Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High pressure will build into the upper Great Lakes Region today. While this high pressure will exert its influence over the region, a pair of troughs are expected to pass over the lake today. West to southwest gusts to 20 knots are expected to persist over the lake today with winds easing overnight as the high pressure center moves toward Lake Michigan. Light and variable winds will then persist over Lake Michigan into Friday, before winds turn southeasterly ahead of approaching low pressure Friday evening. Winds will then turn easterly and northerly with time as the low pressure passes south of the lake on Saturday.
CMiller
FIRE WEATHER
Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
While FFMC will not be at criteria today, full sunshine and a relatively dry, well mixed boundary layer amid west breezes to 20 mph will allow for min RHs to drop into the upper 20s over most of the CWA Preferred areas for lower drops to 20 to 25% will be in the Kettle Moraine and from Madison westward into the southern reaches of the Driftless Area and the Wisconsin River Valley. With min RHs projected to drop very low, there is at least some concern for prescribed burns meeting go/no-go thresholds and citizen burning today despite the fuels still having sufficient moisture.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1014 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will lead to low minimum relative humidity this afternoon, particulary from Madison westward, leading to some burning concerns.
- Friday temperatures will be on the warm side but strong cooling from the lake is expected due largely to the east to southeast winds.
- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.
UPDATE
Issued 1000 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Forecast remains largely on track for today though we will be monitoring dewpoints and RH very closely today for fire weather purposes as we could anticipate some additional mixing aloft and thus some lower RHs.
Kuroski
SHORT TERM
Issued 421 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Today through Friday:
High pressure will spread into the region through today, leading to mostly clear skies. Winds will remain slightly elevated this morning and lead to wind chills in the teens, mainly before 10am. We'll then warm into the afternoon, reaching highs in the mid to upper 40s.
While fuels aren't particularly dry, there are some fire weather concerns today as a model soundings show a well mixed dry boundary layer this afternoon amid continuing westerly winds around 15 to 20 mph. HRRR guidance shows mean RH values dropping into the upper 20s west of Madison, with ensemble min RH values dropping even further into the upper teens. This may meet operational thresholds for prescribed burns today, so we'll have to monitor conditions throughout the afternoon.
Lows will drop into mid 20s again tonight as skies remain clear and winds ease as the center of high pressure moves over the state.
Clouds then increase Friday as a warm front sets up south of the state and warm advection increases over the region. Areas away from Lake Michigan will see highs in the 50s, while areas along the lakeshore will see temperatures dampened into the 40s by cool onshore flow.
CMiller
LONG TERM
Issued 425 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Friday night through Wednesday:
Precipitation is expected to blossom along the warm front parked over central to northern IL Friday night as a subtle shortwave imparts PVA over the region and enhances lift. The NBM paints likely PoPs (60 to 70%) from 00z to 06z Saturday for most of the area and then along the lakeshore from 06z to 12z Saturday.
Thunder chances aren't looking great with the most recent model runs, as the 00z GFS has 100 to 300 J/kg sneaking into the southern half of our CWA around midnight. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out, but have mostly confined slight thunder chances (20%) to along the WI/IL border overnight Friday into Saturday. Rain should then quickly shift east and exit after 12z Saturday following the wave with subsidence in the wake of the wave then dampening rain chances for Saturday.
Still looking like a warm front/stationary front boundary will remain in place over central to northern IL following an area of weak high pressure that'll pass quickly from west to east Saturday into Sunday morning. Multiple weak waves are then expected to propagate eastward along the baroclinic zone from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday giving on and off rain chances during this time. Rain chances should taper late Tuesday as a low pressure system moves along the front and kicks the front away from the upper Midwest. We'll generally be on the northern side of this swath of precipitation, so while we should see mostly rain Sunday into Monday, colder air could intrude Monday night into Tuesday, giving some areas of our CWA a rain snow mix.
Ensemble probs of greater than or equal to 1 inch of precipitation still show model differences into the middle of next week, with the GEFS favoring a more northern track to the rain giving us better chances of getting in on more beneficial rain. The EPS still favors more southern track to the precipitation into next week giving the eastern Corn Belt the lions share of the moisture. With track differences still evident this morning between the GEFS and EPS, there are still some details that need to be worked out with the Sunday - Tuesday system (likely relating to where the front will park) so stay tuned as we begin to hone the forecast into the weekend.
CMiller
AVIATION
Issued 1015 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Largely clear skies expected today with VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There is an area of SCT to BKN MVFR this morning located over parts of southern WI that could slide south over Waukesha and Milwaukee but as of right now this area of CIGS looks to be dissipating and seems unable to slide south enough to impact these sites. Thus the current expectation is for VFR conditions to continue. Into Friday while clouds will be moving in ahead of the next system all clouds will be VFR until likely Friday evening/night when lower CIGS become more likely with rain and perhaps even some thunder.
Kuroski
MARINE
Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
High pressure will build into the upper Great Lakes Region today. While this high pressure will exert its influence over the region, a pair of troughs are expected to pass over the lake today. West to southwest gusts to 20 knots are expected to persist over the lake today with winds easing overnight as the high pressure center moves toward Lake Michigan. Light and variable winds will then persist over Lake Michigan into Friday, before winds turn southeasterly ahead of approaching low pressure Friday evening. Winds will then turn easterly and northerly with time as the low pressure passes south of the lake on Saturday.
CMiller
FIRE WEATHER
Issued 335 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
While FFMC will not be at criteria today, full sunshine and a relatively dry, well mixed boundary layer amid west breezes to 20 mph will allow for min RHs to drop into the upper 20s over most of the CWA Preferred areas for lower drops to 20 to 25% will be in the Kettle Moraine and from Madison westward into the southern reaches of the Driftless Area and the Wisconsin River Valley. With min RHs projected to drop very low, there is at least some concern for prescribed burns meeting go/no-go thresholds and citizen burning today despite the fuels still having sufficient moisture.
CMiller
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 8 mi | 82 min | WSW 5.1G | 38°F | 30.13 | |||
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 22 mi | 42 min | WNW 8.9G | 37°F | ||||
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL | 23 mi | 82 min | WSW 8G | 38°F | ||||
45214 | 41 mi | 52 min | 40°F | 3 ft | ||||
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI | 48 mi | 42 min | WNW 8G | 36°F | 30.17 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KRAC BATTEN INTL,WI | 4 sm | 29 min | WSW 13G19 | 10 sm | Clear | 41°F | 16°F | 36% | 30.11 | |
KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 10 sm | 29 min | W 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 27°F | 52% | 30.10 | |
KMKE GENERAL MITCHELL INTL,WI | 18 sm | 30 min | WSW 12G17 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 39°F | 12°F | 33% | 30.09 | |
KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 20 sm | 31 min | WSW 09G15 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 43°F | 25°F | 49% | 30.10 |
Milwaukee, WI,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE