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LCZ422 339 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters...
the areas affected include...
nearshore waters from port sanilac to port huron mi...
st. Clair river...
at 338 pm est, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots and small hail. This Thunderstorm was located 10 nm west of new baltimore, moving northeast at 45 knots.
the strong Thunderstorm will be near, port huron around 410 pm est.
precautionary/preparedness actions...
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes.
this a strong Thunderstorm will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when this storm reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storm arrives.
&&
lat...lon 4300 8242 4296 8242 4293 8245 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4267 8251 4262 8251 4258 8257 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4300 8247 4310 8251 4315 8251 4322 8243 4319 8242 4312 8236

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 112021 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 321 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

DISCUSSION

Large scale pattern throughout this work week offering a rather prototypical look for a cold season governed by El Nino. Sustained flow out of the Pacific continues to limit both residence time and magnitude of meaningful height falls originating from Canada, effectively mitigating potential arctic air intrusions and lending to a stretch of seasonable to above average temperatures. This also leaves the region void of noteworthy synoptic level features or greater moisture quality to provide focus for better precipitation potential this period, translating into rather dry/benign conditions for mid December standards.

Seasonable thermal profile entrenched this afternoon within the background of strengthening mid level subsidence and associated deep layer stability/dryness atop a lowering inversion. Stubborn stratus held within the narrowing sub-inversion moist layer likely to persist into the evening with the low level thermal trough still anchored locally. Passing inconsequential flurry plausible as low level flow backs with time and draws a lake aggregate theta-e plume eastward to accompany the gradual exit of the trough axis. Loss of supportive saturation with modest low level warming will then support a clearing of lower cloud overnight. Despite this, the combination of the ongoing waa and encroaching high based cloud maintains a higher floor for prospective low temperatures Tuesday morning - mid to upper 20s most locations.

Height falls associated with a closed low tracking across northern Ontario will glance across the great lakes Tuesday. Attendant cold front arrives locally during the daylight period. Paltry moisture depth associated with this fropa, with extremely dry conditions holding above 4k ft. This maintains dry conditions, with some question yet as to possible extent of cloud cover. Longer pre- frontal warm air advection window across the southern section will bring temperatures into the 40s. The overall increase in the gradient offers a diurnally enhanced gusty southwest to westerly condition - 25 to 30 mph throughout the day.

Stretch of deep layer stability solidified by confluent mid level northwest flow and a 1045 mb high centered just to the south will mark conditions Wednesday and Thursday. A generally seasonable post- frontal thermal profile left behind for Wednesday, but with the lack of moisture quality pointing to a higher degree of insolation potential. Warming trend into Thursday as large scale heights rebound. Thermal profile continues to moderate through Friday - projected highs nearing 10 degrees above normal.

MARINE

A cold front moving toward western Lake Superior this afternoon causes gradual backing of westerly winds ahead of it tonight.
Southwest winds ramp up after midnight as the front arrives over northern Lake Huron, with wind speeds of 20 to 30 knots across the area through Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon. Model data continues to show moderate probabilities for gusts to 35 knot gales across Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron, and have upgraded the watch to a Gale Warning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect elsewhere due to gusts to 30 knots and waves in the 3 to 5 foot range. Post-frontal winds shift to the west Tuesday afternoon and ease in magnitude slightly as cooler air brings scattered snow/rain showers across Lake Huron. Gusty westerly flow to around 30 knots continues across northern Lake Huron through Tuesday night and into Wednesday, but gales are currently not expected. High pressure over the Ohio Valley will bring a decreasing trend to the westerly winds by late Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1219 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

AVIATION...

Overcast skies towing the VFR-MVFR line remain entrenched over southern lower MI this afternoon as west flow continues to draw in low level lake moisture. Winds gradually turn to southwesterly by this evening ushering in milder, slightly drier air which is expected to dissipate/shunt lingering lake cloud out of the area overnight. Low pressure tracking across northern Ontario Tuesday results in strengthening southwesterly flow locally by Tuesday morning with peak gusts in the 20-25kt range. Associated cold front then swings through latter half of the day leading to a shift back to cooler west-northwest flow. While low VFR to perhaps borderline MVFR cloud increases daytime Tuesday in advance of the front, frontal passage itself will be dry.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet through this evening, low by late tonight.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ363-421-422-441- 462.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for LEZ444.

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