Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:47 PM Moonrise 10:54 AM   Moonset 1:24 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0007.000000t0000z-240508t0215z/ 1005 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4267 8251 4262 8251 4255 8258 4255 8261 4265 8259 4270 8262 4270 8261 4266 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4282 8251 4282 8248 4276 8247 time - .mot - .loc 0201z 248deg 49kt 4275 8219

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 142308 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 708 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure brings mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures for Wednesday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday.

- Warming temperatures to close out the work week and carry through the weekend, when highs likely reach into the lower 80s on Sunday.

AVIATION

Mid/upper clouds will persist across the area around low pressure circulation to the south and southwest. A portion of this low will pivot closer to the region tonight with cigs aob 4-6kft thickening KPTK south. There is some chance of MVFR cigs, especially into the I- 94 corridor. Lower VFR cigs will be slow to erode/pivot away from area on Wednesday, but expect a gradual clearing trend from north to south into the end of the forecast period. Northeast winds will prevail throughout the forecast.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet late tonight into Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

DISCUSSION...

700 mb moisture axis (5.5 g/kg of specific humidity)/right entrance upper level jet forcing triggering showers around M-46 to Saginaw Bay finally waning as low level northeast dry air also continues to undercut.

Upper level low over the western Ohio Valley with associated low along the Ohio River, sliding east through tomorrow, with 500 mb ridge axis (568-570 DAM) building over the Central Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. Higher low level moisture content and still backed low level southeast flow this evening near the southern Michigan border will support a chance of light showers up to the I- 94 corridor, with a slight chance of weak thunderstorm right near the border. But otherwise, the low level dry air will continue to make further inroads tonight as low level northeast winds increase further. Still just enough residual moisture and modest cold advection around tomorrow to support decent amount of clouds, but highs still likely making a run aoa 70 degrees south of I-69, farther removed from the cool flow off Lake Huron.

Upper level energy over the northern Rockies to get booted off to the east-northeast as 140 knot upper level jet tracks through southern British Columbia. Lead height fall center to track through Minnesota Wednesday night-Thursday, but additional weaker height falls/weak surface reflection to track through Central Great Lakes on Friday, supportive of unsettled/chance of rain showers to end the work week with the isentropic ascent/moisture advection. Marginal instability and modest instability will promote a slight chance of non-severe thundestorms as well.

Large upper level ridge off the Pacific Northwest coast will sink south and become more west-east elongated, with some of the warm air over the Central Rockies breaking off and arriving over the Weekend, as 850 mb temps progged to exceed 15 C by Sunday, supportive of lower 80s for highs with favorable southwest winds.

MARINE...

Shower chances will remain possible into the early evening as high pressure continues to build in over the northern Great Lakes and pushes the frontal boundary south. There will continue to be a chance for rain and thunder overnight into Wednesday, mainly over Lake Erie, as low pressure moves eastward across the Ohio Valley.
This low pressure system will reinforce northeast flow across all of the Great Lakes, building wave heights into Saginaw Bay and across the Lake Huron shoreline on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed across Saginaw Bay and portions of the Lake Huron shorelines given wave heights building slightly above four feet. High pressure will continue to settle in over the Great Lakes on Thursday, relaxing wind speeds and subsequently wave heights.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,