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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am cst Friday through Friday morning...
Rest of tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming south 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South wind 15 to 20 knots veering southwest in the late morning and early afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of rain through around midnight, then rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Saturday..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots veering west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of rain in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 080414 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1014 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds pick up out of the south to southwest Friday morning.
- Periods of rain expected Friday night into Saturday morning.
- Eastward shift in overall track of rain with evening model runs.
- Brief changeover to snow Saturday morning looking less likely with evening model runs.


UPDATE
(Issued 1007 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

00z model runs have come in with good agreement regarding a shift east in the expected precipitation Friday night into Saturday.
Overall, this will lead to a reduction in QPF for areas west of Madison and over south- central Wisconsin, with the axis of higher rain totals (ranging from 0.25 to 0.3 inches) now located over the southwest corner of southern Wisconsin. Have trimmed back PoPs and QPF to represent this change this evening, but overall timing of precipitation should remain relatively similar to the earlier forecast issuance.

Models also hint at lower potential for a change over to snow on the back side of the rain Saturday morning, and expectations of a dusting may be optimistic.

CMiller

SHORT TERM
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Tonight and Friday:

Scattered high level clouds and a light southerly breeze are expected tonight, holding overnight lows to the mid 30s to low 40s. The 500mb ridge axis passes overhead tonight and continues east, but southwesterly WAA continues at the surface and boosts tomorrow's daytime high to the mid 50s. Forecast soundings from CAMs suggest that tonight's southwesterly LLJ may supply enough moisture for a broken stratus deck somewhere at or below the 900mb level. Despite the possibility of this extra cloud deck, widespread temps in the mid 50s are still likely tomorrow.

Sheppard

LONG TERM
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Friday night through Thursday:

As with the previous forecast issuance, the strong low pressure passing through southern Ontario will have a dominant influence over the surface wind field, preventing the secondary low pressure (the center of which crosses our CWA Saturday) from pulling significant CAA into our area (before the precip begins to taper off). Thus, the precipitation we receive Friday night through Saturday morning should fall as rain. Towards the end of the event, cooler / drier air will entrain on some westerly winds, which may allow some snow (with accumulations minimal to none) to mix with the rain for western counties, but the dry slot wrapping around the low is expected to bring an end to the measurable precip shortly thereafter. For the remainder of the weekend a brief light snow shower or flurry wrapping around the back side of the low cannot be ruled out. Dry weather is currently forecast from Monday onwards, with the inner quartile of ensemble high temp forecasts in the 30s. A bowling ball in the 300mb pattern over the rockies is currently indicated by the deterministic models, which may block troughing / cyclogenesis in our area next week.

Sheppard

AVIATION
(Issued 1009 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

Warm advection will lead to scattered areas of MVFR clouds overnight as well as the potential for LLWS to 40 knots over much of southern Wisconsin during the early morning hours before dawn and into the post dawn hours, before surface southwest wind gusts increase to 20 knots in the late morning.

Tomorrows skies will feature SCT to BKN MVFR clouds in the morning, rising to VFR in the afternoon. Tomorrow evening, winds should ease, with rain moving in from the south after 03z.

CMiller

MARINE
(Issued 350 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023)

South to southwest winds with gusts up to 30 kts gradually rebuild tonight into Friday as low pressure of 29.3 inches moves eastward into southern Ontario. Another area of low pressure will develop over Illinois Friday night and move northeastward across Lake Michigan on Saturday. South winds will shift to the west Saturday afternoon and to the northwest on Sunday as the low exits to the northeast. Wind gusts may reach gale force for the southern half of Lake Michigan Saturday morning.

Sheppard

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 AM Friday to noon Friday.

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