Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 10:02 PM   Moonset 6:27 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast wind 5 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning. Thursday - Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then backing east late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday night - East wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Friday - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 250238 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 938 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Freeze Warning Midnight until 8 AM for below-freezing temperatures.

- Active pattern Friday through this weekend. Multiple rounds of showers/storms will result in locally heavy rainfall. The severe storm risk is more uncertain, but bears monitoring.

UPDATE
Issued 935 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The forecast remains on track this evening. Temperatures have begun to drop into the 30s, mainly in areas closer to Lake Michigan. Cirrus is beginning to move into Wisconsin from the northwest, which could hinder radiational cooling overnight depending on sky coverage. However, given mostly clear skies overnight and the quick drop in temperatures seen currently, confidence remains that lows will reach the upper 20s to low 30s across southern Wisconsin tonight. As a result, the Freeze Warning remains in effect through 8am Thursday.

Falkinham

SHORT TERM
Issued 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Tonight and Thursday:

With dewpoints in the upper 20s this afternoon, and upper teens toward central WI, confidence in strong radiational cooling with light winds overnight is increasing. Low temperatures should drop to around 29 or 30, with 28 a valid concern. The forecast temperatures are around the 50th percentile of the NBM and the Median of many models. A Freeze Warning is in effect. Temperatures in the upper 20s for a few hours can cause damage to blossoming fruit trees.

Clear skies are expected tonight through Thursday, thanks to high pressure and dry air over the Great Lakes. With onshore winds, lakeshore areas will remain cool Thursday while inland temps should be a little warmer than today, around 60. Look for afternoon winds to become southeast 10 to 15 mph and remain fairly steady overnight. Lows Thursday will be milder, between 36 and 42, due to increasing clouds and breezier conditions.

Models continue to trend slower for the precip arrival in southern WI from west to east on Friday. It is looking like precip should remain west of Madison until at least 3 PM.

Cronce

LONG TERM
Issued 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Friday through Wednesday:

Synoptic Look:

The start of a busy pattern will begin on Friday and continue into the start of next week. Models are in good agreement of a multi-part system slowly moving out of the Desert SW and into the Plains and finally onto the Great Lakes Region over the coming days. At the synoptic level, we will have in essence, a double barrel trough ejection which will be the focus of our active weather pattern. The first trough which is still currently off the coast of California will slowly move eastward before reaching the Plains on Friday. Around the same time, a secondary trough will move into the Pacific Northwest and trek towards the southeast. On Saturday we'll see the the initial trough weaken as it moves into the Great Lakes area with an attendant 50kt+ zonal jet streak somewhere in the vicinity of the Western Great Lakes.
Meanwhile the secondary trough at this point will be exiting the Rocky Mountains and moving into the Central Plains. Over the next 24 hours this trough will move on a NE track while slowly filling in before arriving into the Midwest late on Sunday. The jet streak associated with this trough will be of similar magnitude to the day prior but orientated much more meridional stretching from the Deep South and into Western Ontario. By early next week, a ridge should begin to build over us putting an end to the active pattern and inducing quieter conditions across Southern Wisconsin.

Convective Potential: As with any major trough during the spring and summer season we must keep an eye out for convection and in some cases even severe weather. This time is no different as we are monitoring 3 days (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday) for the potential for strong to severe storms. The latest SPC outlooks have highlighted the southwestern portion of the CWA in a marginal risk on Friday (Day 3). While both Saturday and Sunday (Day 4 and 5) have the western portions of our CWA in slight risks for severe weather. It should be noted that there are many things that will needed to be sorted out before confidence in any one particular solution grows.

Friday into Saturday AM: At the onset of this period, the entire region will be in a SE flow regime in accordance with a intensifying sub-1000mb low across the Central Plains. Through most of the morning and early afternoon we should see precipitation hold off due to a dry layer near the surface. However, by late afternoon and early evening we should precipitation begin to impinge into our far SW counties tied to a lifting frontal boundary. With these storms we could see some scattered showers and storms move through the evening and overnight hours. Models are suggesting 500-750 j/kg of MUCAPE which could allow for some lightning, small hail and gusty winds in some of the stronger cores that reach our CWA By Saturday morning, a widespread 0.25-0.4" is likely with isolated 0.5-0.75+" rainfall totals being seen as well.

Saturday into Sunday AM: By midday Saturday, the boundary from the night prior will stall out across Northern Wisconsin. Following it, an EML from the SW will reach our area keeping us dry until the afternoon when models diverge on their solutions. With steep lapse rates aloft from the EML we should see upwards of 1000J/KG form through the day. Tie in dewpoints reaching into the mid-60s and 40+kts of bulk shear organized and potentially severe storms are possible. Storms could either form along the sagging boundary or in the open warm sector but neither solution is favored at this point. It should be noted that due to 500mb height rises, confidence in storm firing in the first place is low with no real forcing mechanism in the vicinity.
Trends towards a drier or towards a more convective Saturday afternoon/evening will be watched for in coming forecasting cycles.

By very late Saturday, convection that began across the Central Plains will eventually arc to the northeast and reach our area.
Once again these storms will pose a threat for rainfall - potentially heavy at times through the night. Widespread 0.3-0.5" is likely with 0.5-1.0" totals possible in stronger storms or where storms trek over multiple times.

Sunday and onwards:

Sunday is the day with the least amount of confidence in what may transpire. By this point in time the EML from the SW will have been worked out to some degree by the overnight. We are likely to see convection through the morning period before some type of clearing on Sunday appears heading into the afternoon. There will enough shear for organized storms and once again severe storms if enough CAPE can build in before some boundary moves through.
Another period of heavy rain is possible Sunday afternoon and into the evening. The cold front will finally move through our area early Monday finally putting an to our active weather as a ridge builds in over the area.

Hydrological Concerns: All in all, total rainfall values will likely be in the 1-2.5" over the weekend with localized higher values. While most of our rivers are not of concern right now, localized ponding and isolated flooding is possible if we see storms fire over the same areas on consecutive days. To that degree, the WPC has placed our entire area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 935 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. High pressure will continue to influence the Great Lakes region tonight and Thursday allowing for light winds primarily out of the southeast. Dry air throughout the column will lead to clear skies on Thursday.

Falkinham

MARINE
Issued 344 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Winds will continue to diminish over Lake Michigan this evening and become light and variable through Thursday afternoon as high pressure drifts across the Great Lakes. Lingering high waves will continue to subside so the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 10 PM.

Strong southeast winds will develop over Lake Michigan Friday afternoon and become southerly Saturday morning, then diminish Saturday night. Gales are possible Friday afternoon through Saturday, but confidence is low due to an inversion and stability from warm air flowing over the cool water.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Freeze Warning
WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057- WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066- WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 8 AM Thursday.

LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM Wednesday.

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