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FXUS63 KLBF 112059 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 259 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES

* Light snow is possible across the western Sandhills and into north central Nebraska on Monday night/Tuesday with accumulations less than a half inch and highs only rising into the mid 30s.

* Light wintry precipitation is expected south of I-80 on Wednesday night into Thursday morning in the form of rain/snow/freezing rain. Ice accumulations are uncertain at this time, but some travel impacts may be seen along and south of the I-80 corridor.

* A return to dry conditions on Thursday night lasting into the weekend with temperatures returning into the upper 40s/low 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Active weather arrives on tonight as a shortwave pushes through the High Plains. Snow showers will develop across the Panhandle after Midnight Tuesday morning and slowly push eastward through Tuesday afternoon. While accumulations will generally be light, some increased forcing in Fgen bands may result in locally higher amounts in narrow bands. Widespread accumulations under a half inch are expected across areas north of Highway 2. Locally higher amount locations are a bit more uncertain although latest guidance suggests Sheridan and western Cherry counties may have the greatest potential to see these higher enhanced bands. Overall, with light winds of near or under 10 mph, significant impacts from this quick moving system should be minimal. Still, caution should be used if driving overnight tonight especially on less traveled roads as even a light dusting of snow can cause slippery roadways.

Snow diminishes by Tuesday evening for most locations as surface high pressure builds into the region. Across extreme our extreme northeast forecast area (Holt and Boyd counties) a secondary area of light snow will develop early Tuesday evening. Snow will be quick moving lasting only 2 or 3 hours with only a dusting expected as it quickly pushes to the southeast.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Tuesday night will be colder than we've experienced the last few days as cooler air filters in behind the shortwave. Highs will only rise into the mid 30s by Tuesday afternoon with overnight lows Tuesday night in the upper teens to low 20s.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quiet weather returns on Wednesday bringing a brief break to wintry weather across north central and western Nebraska before more active weather arrives.

A strong upper level trough will dig south across the Great Plains on Wednesday night and into Thursday night. The majority of the moisture and precipitation chances will be confined just to the south of Nebraska. However, a few stray showers may make it as far north as the I-80 corridor. There is some concerns regarding precipitation type with this system as temperatures hover near freezing. Latest model and guidance soundings suggest profiles indicating a wintry mix of rain/snow and even freezing rain/drizzle early Thursday morning. While this is basically the first issuance that hints at this, confidence remains low at this time. Regardless, felt it was worth putting a mention into the going forecast as the boundary layer and surface environment favors some isolated chances of freezing rain. If this does play out, there will still be some concerns about how many impacts will be seen. With rain initially falling across the area and the brief nature of freezing rain (only lasting a few hours), accumulations may be hard to attain. On the other hand, greatest probability for freezing rain/drizzle will be a few hours before sunrise as people are starting to head off to work/school and there's the potential for impacts across the I-80 corridor. As of right now, those with travel plans early Thursday should be prepared for slippery roadways and allow for extra travel time. Temperatures rise after sunrise and precipitation pushes off to the east by mid Thursday morning.

Strong upper level ridging and surface high pressure will build into the region on Thursday afternoon lasting through the weekend. A return to drier weather and milder temperatures are expected as warm air advection pushes a warmer airmass into the central Plains. High temperatures will return to the upper 40s to low 50s by the weekend with lows remaining fairly consistent in the 20s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR aviation conditions will continue through the afternoon and into the evening. Light northwest winds under 10 knots with mostly clear skies continue. Expect some increasing clouds throughout the evening as the next disturbance arrives tonight. Light snow is possible across the Panhandle and into the Sandhills through Tuesday morning.
Some snow showers may briefly impact KVTN by late morning, although, the only major impact should be some reductions in visibility down to 5 to 6 miles.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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