Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chiloquin, OR
December 6, 2023 9:32 AM PST (17:32 UTC)
Sunrise 7:19AM Sunset 4:36PM Moonrise 12:45AM Moonset 1:20PM
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 061125 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 325 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023
DISCUSSION
The overall forecast remains on track this morning.
Observations this morning vary a bit across the region. A stalled front remains draped across Coos and Curry Counties and into Douglas County from Roseburg westward, and this is resulting in moderate to heavy precipitation in these areas. Dry conditions continue east and south of this front with breezy winds of 25 to 35 mph common across the higher terrain and in the southern end of the Shasta Valley. Meanwhile, stable conditions in valleys west of the Cascades have brought the return of fog with low visibilities. A look at area webcams shows the poorest visibilities are here in the Rogue Valley from Ashland to Central Point and Eagle Point, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through the remainder of the morning.
Current conditions will remain largely unchanged until around sunrise this morning which is when the front finally makes a more noticeable push eastward. In the meantime, with the front remaining stalled over the next several hours, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue on already saturated soils. This area is expected to receive around 1-3 inches through this morning, and there could be some ponding of water on roadways again with minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. This will likely result in a another bump/rise in area creeks, streams and rivers (some of which could reach bankfull again, though none are currently forecast to reach flood stage). As such, we are maintaining the areal flood watch for western Douglas, Coos, Curry and western Josephine counties through this afternoon.
Once the front starts pushing eastward later this morning, moderate rainfall will spread inland with a high likelihood of rain for most areas (70-100% chance). Rain amounts for the valleys west of the Cascades of half an inch to an inch are expected today, while areas east of the Cascades, in the Shasta Valley and over NE California should be in the 0.25-0.50 inch range, though some of this will be snow by early Thursday morning. In addition to the rain, winds will increase late this morning and into the afternoon, especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Midlevel winds (700 mb)
will increase to 45-55 kts as this front passes through, resulting in advisory level winds in these areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this through this evening.
Snow levels will hover around 5500-6000 ft through this afternoon, limiting any winter impacts to the highest peaks through then. Snow levels lower to around 4500-5000 ft behind the front late this afternoon through this evening, and this is when we expect some winter impacts to begin up around Crater Lake with around 3 to 5 inches in the forecast. The bulk of the accumulating snow, however, occurs tonight through Thursday night as another, colder Pacific disturbance moves onshore. There remains a high probability of 6-12 inches of snow over the Siskiyous and more than 12 inches over the Cascades above 5000 feet from Lake of the Woods northward. Snow levels continue to lower to around 3500-4000 ft overnight into Thursday morning, so some snow may reach to near Union Creek and/or Toketee Falls as well as the Siskiyou Summit, with snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected for these areas. The highway 97 corridor north of Klamath Falls (mainly Chiloquin northward) could see 3-6 inches of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued to cover locations in western Siskiyou County, the Warners and Winter Rim as well as the Siskiyous and Cascades, all above 3500 ft, and is in effect this afternoon through early Friday morning. Snow levels continue to drop to around 2500 feet by Friday morning, but precipitation will be ending by then.
Precipitation tapers off by Friday morning as a brief upper ridge builds into the region and we'll see another break in the weather for Friday. The break is short-lived, however, with the next system arriving Saturday morning/afternoon. Snow levels will quickly rise to around 6000-7000 ft with this warm front Saturday morning and afternoon, so winter impacts should be limited with this front. We could see another round of strong winds as models indicate 700 mb winds around 50 to 60 kt. Once this front passes through, the weather will quiet down as a large scale ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and essentially blocks the storm door. There could be a few weak systems that pass through early next week, but once precipitation tapers off Sunday, generally quiet weather is expected for the first half of next week. /BR-y
AVIATION
06/12Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR in dense fog in the Medford (KMFR) area this morning, along with areas of fog in other nearby valleys, will improve by late this morning or early afternoon, likely scouring out as the front approaches from the west. This front, marked by a band of moderate to heavy rain, lies along and west of a line from roughly Roseburg (KRBG) to Brookings (KBOK) as of 12 UTC. The front and the precipitation will slowly push to the east today, with precipitation overspreading the entire area by late this afternoon. Along with this rain, expect MVFR/IFR conditions and significant terrain obscuration, areas of low level wind shear, and gusty winds over ridgetops and across the East Side. Lower flight conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period, with little improvement by early Thursday morning. -BPN
MARINE
Updated 200 AM Wednesday December 6, 2023...Very large and very steep seas will gradually diminish through today, with winds becoming north on the back side of a passing front. Models are suggesting the passage of a series of compact surface lows late tonight into Thursday morning, and this could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts. Winds will then diminish late Thursday into Friday, although steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives Saturday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas, and about a 40 percent chance of winds reaching gale force. Conditions improve through the weekend as high pressure builds overhead, although gusty north winds are possible as a thermal trough develops along the coast. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Flood Watch through this afternoon for ORZ021>024.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ024-027-028.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ084-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 325 AM PST Wed Dec 6 2023
DISCUSSION
The overall forecast remains on track this morning.
Observations this morning vary a bit across the region. A stalled front remains draped across Coos and Curry Counties and into Douglas County from Roseburg westward, and this is resulting in moderate to heavy precipitation in these areas. Dry conditions continue east and south of this front with breezy winds of 25 to 35 mph common across the higher terrain and in the southern end of the Shasta Valley. Meanwhile, stable conditions in valleys west of the Cascades have brought the return of fog with low visibilities. A look at area webcams shows the poorest visibilities are here in the Rogue Valley from Ashland to Central Point and Eagle Point, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through the remainder of the morning.
Current conditions will remain largely unchanged until around sunrise this morning which is when the front finally makes a more noticeable push eastward. In the meantime, with the front remaining stalled over the next several hours, moderate to heavy rainfall will continue on already saturated soils. This area is expected to receive around 1-3 inches through this morning, and there could be some ponding of water on roadways again with minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. This will likely result in a another bump/rise in area creeks, streams and rivers (some of which could reach bankfull again, though none are currently forecast to reach flood stage). As such, we are maintaining the areal flood watch for western Douglas, Coos, Curry and western Josephine counties through this afternoon.
Once the front starts pushing eastward later this morning, moderate rainfall will spread inland with a high likelihood of rain for most areas (70-100% chance). Rain amounts for the valleys west of the Cascades of half an inch to an inch are expected today, while areas east of the Cascades, in the Shasta Valley and over NE California should be in the 0.25-0.50 inch range, though some of this will be snow by early Thursday morning. In addition to the rain, winds will increase late this morning and into the afternoon, especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley. Midlevel winds (700 mb)
will increase to 45-55 kts as this front passes through, resulting in advisory level winds in these areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this through this evening.
Snow levels will hover around 5500-6000 ft through this afternoon, limiting any winter impacts to the highest peaks through then. Snow levels lower to around 4500-5000 ft behind the front late this afternoon through this evening, and this is when we expect some winter impacts to begin up around Crater Lake with around 3 to 5 inches in the forecast. The bulk of the accumulating snow, however, occurs tonight through Thursday night as another, colder Pacific disturbance moves onshore. There remains a high probability of 6-12 inches of snow over the Siskiyous and more than 12 inches over the Cascades above 5000 feet from Lake of the Woods northward. Snow levels continue to lower to around 3500-4000 ft overnight into Thursday morning, so some snow may reach to near Union Creek and/or Toketee Falls as well as the Siskiyou Summit, with snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected for these areas. The highway 97 corridor north of Klamath Falls (mainly Chiloquin northward) could see 3-6 inches of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued to cover locations in western Siskiyou County, the Warners and Winter Rim as well as the Siskiyous and Cascades, all above 3500 ft, and is in effect this afternoon through early Friday morning. Snow levels continue to drop to around 2500 feet by Friday morning, but precipitation will be ending by then.
Precipitation tapers off by Friday morning as a brief upper ridge builds into the region and we'll see another break in the weather for Friday. The break is short-lived, however, with the next system arriving Saturday morning/afternoon. Snow levels will quickly rise to around 6000-7000 ft with this warm front Saturday morning and afternoon, so winter impacts should be limited with this front. We could see another round of strong winds as models indicate 700 mb winds around 50 to 60 kt. Once this front passes through, the weather will quiet down as a large scale ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and essentially blocks the storm door. There could be a few weak systems that pass through early next week, but once precipitation tapers off Sunday, generally quiet weather is expected for the first half of next week. /BR-y
AVIATION
06/12Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR in dense fog in the Medford (KMFR) area this morning, along with areas of fog in other nearby valleys, will improve by late this morning or early afternoon, likely scouring out as the front approaches from the west. This front, marked by a band of moderate to heavy rain, lies along and west of a line from roughly Roseburg (KRBG) to Brookings (KBOK) as of 12 UTC. The front and the precipitation will slowly push to the east today, with precipitation overspreading the entire area by late this afternoon. Along with this rain, expect MVFR/IFR conditions and significant terrain obscuration, areas of low level wind shear, and gusty winds over ridgetops and across the East Side. Lower flight conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period, with little improvement by early Thursday morning. -BPN
MARINE
Updated 200 AM Wednesday December 6, 2023...Very large and very steep seas will gradually diminish through today, with winds becoming north on the back side of a passing front. Models are suggesting the passage of a series of compact surface lows late tonight into Thursday morning, and this could produce brief periods of strong winds and sharp wind shifts. Winds will then diminish late Thursday into Friday, although steep seas will persist due to ongoing west swell. The next front arrives Saturday, with gusty south winds and very steep wind-driven seas, and about a 40 percent chance of winds reaching gale force. Conditions improve through the weekend as high pressure builds overhead, although gusty north winds are possible as a thermal trough develops along the coast. -BPN
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ029>031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for ORZ030-031.
Flood Watch through this afternoon for ORZ021>024.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ021-022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Friday above 3500 feet for ORZ024-027-028.
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday above 3500 feet for CAZ080-082-083.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ084-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
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Medford, OR,
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