Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chiloquin, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:19PM Friday August 7, 2020 4:58 AM PDT (11:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:43PMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chiloquin, OR
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location: 42.73, -121.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 071137 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 447 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION. The forecast is on track with relatively little change necessary. Conditions look to be seasonable at least through Wednesday. Of particular note, an inland warming trend will begin today with highs near normal. This trend still looks to reach its peak on Monday afternoon with highs in the 90s to lower 100s . except up to around 110 in the Klamath River Valley in western Siskiyou County. Also, easterly winds will produce downslope warming for Brookings with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s/well above normal through Monday. A slight chance of late day thunderstorms remains for portions of northern California on Monday and Tuesday . though with a higher probability over the Sierra Nevada south of Modoc County on Monday and likewise east of our area on Tuesday.

First, a few low clouds remain banked up against the Umpqua Divide early this morning, with another patch over southeast Siskiyou County. These clouds will dissipate as the air mass dries this morning. The exception to clear skies will likely be a few low topped cumulus buildups over southeast Modoc County late this afternoon. Expect fewer coastal low clouds Friday through the weekend as low level easterly winds bring a drier air mass.

A thermal trough will strengthen along the coast today then persist into Monday with gusty north to northeast surface winds for the coast and coastal waters, as well as inland over the mountains in the coast range and western Siskiyou County.

Also, gusty, breezy northerly winds are expected for inland areas during the late afternoon and evening hours . strongest in west side valleys.

As mentioned above, in addition to seeing the hot temperatures inland on Monday, models are indicating a weak low will be positioned off the coast of central California. This will allow a noteworthy/moderate increase of mid level moisture over northern California from the south. This moisture combined with weak instability, CAPE and weak shortwave activity aloft will likely extend over the northern Sierra Nevada, and may extend farther north into southern portions of Siskiyou and Modoc Counties as well. The GEFS ensemble members have trended toward a majority of members keeping this instability a short distance south of our area. But, the operational GFS is among those that warrant continuing the inclusion of a slight chance for thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday afternoon/evening . roughly from Mount Shasta eastward to the Warner Mountains. A west steering flow of about 10 to 15 kt is expected.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, a broad trough to the north will deepen with its axis roughly over the coast. This will bring a cooling trend and shift the region of instability east-northeastward. A slight chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday will be highest a short distance east of our area . for northwest Nevada into far southeast Oregon. But, the operational GFS and more than half of the ensemble members indicate weak instability and sufficient moisture to warrant continuing the slight chance of thunderstorms over the Warners late Tuesday. By Wednesday, expect convective activity to be east of our area. The thermal trough winds are expected to weaken during this period and inland areas will see breezy northwest to west winds during the afternoon/early evening.

Model uncertainty increases beyond Wednesday. The upper trough is expected to swing inland on Thursday, with high temperatures at a minimum for the week. But, there is uncertainty in the strength of this troughing on Thursday, then growing uncertainty in the extent to which the trough persists or we see ridging. In either case, the late week air mass does look to be stable.

AVIATION. For the 07/12Z TAF Cycle . The latest satellite image shows clear skies over most of the area, except for some patchy low clouds in portions of the Coquille and Umpqua Basin. However the air mass is expected to become drier over time, therefore they should not expand much more than they already have. All terminals are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. Gusty winds are likely at the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco late this morning into this evening. Gusty breezes are expected for the inland terminals late this afternoon and early evening.

There is some evidence marine stratus could develop along the coast and offshore north of Cape Blanco towards the end of the TAF period, including North Bend, but confidence is not high enough to include the lower conditions in the TAF. -Petrucelli

MARINE. Updated 245 AM PDT Friday 7 August 2020 . A thermal trough will develop along the coast today and is expected remain in place through at least Sunday night before shifting inland on Monday.

This will result in strong north winds and steep to very steep seas with the strongest winds and steepest seas expected south of Cape Blanco.

Right now, we think the gales should remain mainly over the southern waters from late Friday afternoon through Monday. However there is some indication hazardous seas warning conditions could expand north just west of Coos Bay late Sunday afternoon and evening. It's still a few days out there, so no changes will be made at this time, but this could change, so watch for updates.

There's good agreement winds and seas will peak Sunday, then gradually diminish Sunday night into Monday, but seas are still expected to remain hazardous through at least Monday night. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ376.

DW/Petrucelli


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Klamath Falls International Airport, OR42 mi66 minN 010.00 miFair46°F41°F83%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLMT

Wind History from LMT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE53W11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5446W9W10N11
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SW16SW8W4E5CalmS5W8CalmW7W6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm54344Calm4NW5CalmCalmNW15NW12NW11NW12W7W6W4CalmS5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.