Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
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|Sunrise 7:24AM||Sunset 4:36PM||Wednesday December 11, 2019 10:55 AM PST (18:55 UTC)||Moonrise 4:29PM||Moonset 6:48AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chiloquin, ORHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Medford, OR  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KMFR 111842 AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1042 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2019
.Updated Aviation Discussion,
SHORT TERM. A Pacific low is centered in the Gulf of Alaska with a front extending off the Pacific Northwest coast. This front will move towards the coast today, then gradually inland tonight and Thursday. A strong upper level jet of 160-180 kt at 300 mb will move into the area during this period bringing strong upper level support. Models remain on track with this system and indicate moderate to locally heavy rain spreading into the area late today through Thursday and snow levels rising to around 5500 ft today then to 6000 to 7000 feet elevation tonight and Thursday. Light rain will begin along coastal areas this morning then increase and spread inland this afternoon. By late afternoon and early evening, precipitation is likely across the CWA.
Today through Thursday afternoon, moderate to heavy rain will be the main concern except over the higher mountains. Through Thursday afternoon, snow impacts are expected mainly above 6000 feet elevation where moderate to heavy snow is possible (this will mainly affect the Crater Lake area). Snow levels will lower Thursday night with widespread showers continuing across the area, down to 4000 to 5000 feet elevation in southwest Oregon and down to 5000 to 5500 feet elevation across Northern California. Moderate snow is possible in the Southern Oregon Cascades above 5000 feet elevation, especially in the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake areas Thursday evening through Friday morning. Precipitation storm totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected along the coast, in the coastal mountains and into the Southern Oregon Cascades late today through Thursday night with 0.5 to 1.0 inches across other inland areas (except for lighter amounts in eastern Lake County). Areas rivers and streams will see some rises due to rainfall but current forecasts do not indicate flooding. Ponding on roads and significant rises on small streams are expected though.
Also during this event, winds will increase as a 700 mb 45-60kt westerly jet moves over the area on Thursday. This will bring breezy to gusty southwest winds to the CWA with strongest winds over the higher mountains. Gusty southwest winds are expected in the Summer Lake area with gusts of 40 mph or possibly higher. Of note, the 12z GFS and 12z NAM have trended stronger on the 700 mb jet and the wind potential in the Summer Lake area. Current models indicate winds approaching advisory criteria on Thursday for the Summer Lake area. So will need to evaluate this further. In the southern Shasta Valley, models also support gusty southerly winds tonight into Thursday with gusts to around 30 to 40 mph.
On Friday, the upper level jet will remain in place and expect additional shortwave energy and a weak surface low to move into the area from the west, resulting in widespread moderate showers with rain and mountain snow. Valleys east of the Cascades on Friday may see a mix of rain and snow showers Friday due lower snow levels near 4500 feet.
AVIATION. For the 11/18Z TAFs . Patchy areas of LIFR/IFR fog are expected to improve to VFR conditions for the Medford Airport early this afternoon. The TAF shows improving conditions at 21z, but confidence on exact timing is medium at best, so watch for updates on this. Despite improving conditions, MVFR ceilings with terrain obscurations are expected to remain the predominate conditions along and west of the Cascades through this afternoon. The exception will be at Roseburg where VFR ceilings should last into this evening.
East of the Cascades . VFr conditions will continue into this afternoon, followed by MVFR ceilings this evening for the remainder of the TAF period.
The main hazard will be the chance for low level wind shear along the coast, including North Bend and for Roseburg through this evening. This was also added to the Medford TAF, but it's not expected to be an impact until this evening. -Petrucelli
MARINE. Updated 830 AM PST Wednesday, 11 December 2019 . The next front in the series is expected today and will be stronger than the previous, bringing gale force winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas. Gales will primarily impact areas from Cape Blanco northward but very steep seas and gusty winds will impact some areas south of Cape Blanco. Winds diminish late tonight into Thursday. However, seas will remain elevated with a high and steep long period west swell building in during this time. Swell dominated seas of about 15-17 feet at 17 seconds will impact the coastal waters from Thursday morning into Friday evening, likely impacting bar crossings and crab pots. Seas will gradually lower Saturday into Monday but remain steep. Active weather will continue through the weekend with periods of moderate to heavy rain. BR-y/Keene
PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 300 AM PST Wed Dec 11 2019/
DISCUSSION . 11/00Z NAM/GFS/EC in.
A snow band is exiting to the east of the area at this time with good clearing in its wake. Snow levels look to be 4000-4500 feet. With the clearing, areas of low clouds and fog may develop over the valleys later this morning, but there is another band of high clouds overspreading the area from the west, and this may retard the spread of lower conditions.
The northern hemispheric pattern shows a wave number of 4 to 5 around the globe, which usually is a progressive pattern. That will be the case here. A very high amplitude ridge now over the intermountain states is breaking down as it moves east.
The upstream long wave trough is sending short waves onshore, and one such wave supported the aforementioned snow band. A short wave ridge immediately following is bringing the band of clearing in its wake. Some showers will persist into the late morning hours Wednesday, mostly over higher terrain.
Brisk quasi-zonal upper level flow will develop today and persist through Friday with the jet stream pretty much focused on the Medford CWA. This will support weak to moderate quick-moving systems moving onshore in rapid succession. The next front will move in this afternoon. Short waves embedded in the zonal flow will parade onshore, and this will support wave development on the frontal boundary that will cause it to oscillate over the area into Friday.
Tonight and Thursday looks to be a very wet over the Medford CWA, especially in the Coast Range. Storm total precipitation amounts tonight through Friday morning will be 1-3 inches along the coast and in the Coast Range as well as in the Cascades. Other inland areas will see 0.5-1.5 inches of precipitation. Snow levels will be high, generally above 6000 feet through Thursday.
Rivers will rise quite a bit, but given the antecedent low stage levels, they should remain well below flood stage. Some small stream flooding may occur though.
Winds will also be a factor, especially on Thursday. Gusty south to southwest winds will be strongest over the mountains, but gusts to around 40 mph are expected into the southern Shasta Valley Thursday afternoon and in the Summer Lake area Thursday afternoon and evening.
Thicknesses will fall Thursday night into Friday and snow levels will gradually lower to 4000 to 5000 feet. With continued showers during this period, moderate snow may occur on higher passes in the Southern Oregon Cascades, mainly in the Diamond Lake and Crater Lake areas, and over the Siskiyous and Coast Range from south central Siskiyou county northwest into the Kalmiopsis.
Long term discussion from the Tuesday afternoon AFD . Fri 13 Dec through Tue 17 Dec 2019 . A fast zonal jet stream (160-180kt at 300 mb) is expected to be aimed at Oregon late this week (Friday). This will keep a steady parade of disturbances from the Pacific into the area through the first half of the weekend. None of these systems will be particularly strong, so winds should be held in check and precipitation amounts should be fairly light. One system will pass to our south Friday morning with westerly onshore flow keeping showers going in many areas, especially along the coast and in higher terrain areas that are favored in such flow regimes (Cascades). While snow levels will fall on Friday down to 4000-5000 feet, snow impacts should be minimal with additional accumulations of only 1-4 inches above 5000 feet.
A brief break between systems is possible Friday night into Saturday morning, but as the core of the jet shifts to the east-southeast into the nation's mid-section, another upper level disturbance will arrive at the coast and move onshore Saturday. This will result in increasing chances for rain/snow Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Snow levels will continue to lower to around 3500 feet, but precipitation amounts should be light. Another 1-3 inches of snow is possible for the mountains and some snow may affect Siskiyou/Black Butte Summits Saturday evening.
Colder air will continue to move in behind this system and snow levels will drop to around or just above the lower passes (2500- 3000 feet) by Sunday morning, but model guidance is indicating that precipitation will be largely ending by then with no impacts for the lower elevations. Some showers could linger in NW sections of the CWA Sunday, but most will remain to the north.
Heading into next week, models are showing a brief period of ridging before another disturbance arrives by around Tuesday. -Spilde
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.
CA . None.
Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday for PZZ356-376. Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-370.
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|Klamath Falls International Airport, OR||42 mi||63 min||SSE 7||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||37°F||34°F||89%||1022.2 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KLMT
Wind History from LMT (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||S||SE||S||S||SE||S||SE||S||S||S||S||S||SE||Calm||SW||Calm||SE||S||Calm||S|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||W||NW||NW||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||N||N||Calm||N||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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