NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE
No significant changes with this update. Just made some minor adjustments based on current obs. Cool temperatures in the 50s to start the day with some patchy fog in typical sheltered areas.

.PREV DISCUSSION]0335]...Surface high pressure will be positioned across the area today, with an upper level ridge axis over the Great Lakes. Subsidence will lead to abundant sunshine, with just a few diurnally driven fair weather cumulus clouds around. Highs look to be near normal, with highs in the upper 70s in the higher terrain to mid 80s in the valleys.
Humidity levels will be comfortable with dewpoints mainly in the 50s.

Mostly clear and tranquil conditions will persist tonight with high pressure remaining in place. The air mass still looks relatively dry, with PWAT anomalies around -1 STDEV. So low temperatures should be near normal, ranging from mid 50s in the mountains to upper 50s/lower 60s in lower elevations. Patchy fog may occur in typical favored sheltered locations and near bodies of water.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
On Sun, the upper level ridge nudges east and starts to fold over a bit across far southern Ontario/Quebec. This will induce a cut-off low pressure system to form somewhere south of the New England coast. This looks to be a fairly compact system, so even though it may drift near the coast by late Sun, any showers should remain south/east of our area through the day with just some increasing clouds south/east of Albany. As the air mass warms further, highs could reach near 90F in lower elevations.
While dewpoints are expected to start rising, they still look to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s so heat indices will be close to the actual temperature.

The pattern should remain fairly stagnant Sun night, with the cut-off low slowly tracking closer to the coast. A few light showers may get close to SW New England, but at this time looks dry across our area. Lows will be near to slightly above normal, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

On Mon, guidance indicating the cut-off low meanders into New England during the day. Since this system is expected to be vertically stacked and not baroclinic, forcing looks rather limited. Also, PWATs forecast to be just near normal, so moisture is not overly impressive. Given these factors, will continue to mention just 20-30% of showers/T-storms for areas south/east of Albany. Instability/shear parameters look fairly modest, so severe weather is not anticipated. Highs may be a few degrees cooler than Sun due to some extra clouds around, with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s.

The cut-off low is forecast to weaken Mon night as it tracks northward into northern New England. A few showers or a rogue thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, especially for areas east of Albany. It will start to become more humid, with low temperatures in the 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term period will generally feature warm, muggy conditions with chances for showers and thunderstorms most afternoons...

Long term period begins at 12z Tuesday with the cutoff upper low and associated surface cyclone beginning to track off to our north and east. There could be some lingering showers across western New England, but the day should start mostly dry for the rest of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon with diurnal heating, and increasing low-level warm advection, although shortwave upper ridging may help to limit the coverage of showers/storms. Tuesday will be warm, especially from the Hudson Valley westwards, with highs in the upper 80s for valley areas. Showers and storms should gradually diminish after sunset with overnight lows mainly in the 60s.

Wednesday through the end of the week will feature broad upper troughing over our region, with several upper impulses expected to track through the mean trough. This will lead to chances for diurnally driven showers and storms each day, with more coverage of showers/storms if/when the passage of any of these upper impulses coincides with peak daytime heating. Right now, the highest chance for showers and storms looks to be Wednesday when a weak frontal boundary tracking through the region should provide increased low-level forcing for ascent. With relatively weak flow aloft and PWATs increasing to around +2 sigma, some locally heavy rain will be possible with any storms, although the lack of shear should limit the overall severe threat.
Forecast confidence in coverage of showers/storms is low for the end of the week into early next weekend, but precip should be less widespread Thursday and Friday compared to Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature highs in the mid to upper 80s. Friday and Saturday will be slightly warmer with low 90s possible in some valley locations as heights rise aloft and a warmer airmass is advected in from the west/southwest. Overnight lows each night will be mainly in the 60s to locally around 70 for some of the typically warmer valley areas, and it will be quite muggy each night. Looking ahead to days 8-14, the CPC is leaning heavily towards continued above normal temperatures and leaning slightly towards above normal precip.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12z Sunday...As of 6:10 AM EDT...ALB/POU remain VFR early this morning and are not expected to see any fog. At GFL/PSF, patchy fog is resulting in periodic IFR and lower vsbys and cigs. Fog should burn off no later than 12z this morning.
From that point forwards, all TAF sites remain VFR through at least midnight tonight with just some passing mid and high clouds. ALB/POU are expected to see VFR conditions persist through the end of the TAF period, but patchy fog will once again be possible tonight at GFL/PSF during the last few hours of the TAF valid period. IFR or lower vsbys expected with any fog that forms late tonight.

Winds will be light and variable to start the morning, increasing to around 5 kt from the northwest by mid to late morning and lasting until around or shortly before sunset. After sunset, winds become light and variable through at least 12z Sunday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.