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FXUS61 KALY 060010 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 710 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance will move through late tonight into Wednesday, bringing clouds and a few light snow showers in some spots. It will be dry and seasonably cold with high pressure building in Wednesday night. Another fast moving disturbance will result in isolated to scattered snow showers on Thursday, followed by dry conditions with moderating temperatures Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 645 PM...Forecast is in good shape with minimal adjustments needed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [337 PM]...An upper level trough will move in from the west tonight. With the best dynamics and forcing displaced to our south/east, little measurable precip is anticipated in our region. This will result in mostly cloudy skies and perhaps some flurries or light snow showers with only a dusting in some spots. Lows will be colder than recent night and more seasonable, ranging from upper 10s to upper 20s.

The upper level trough will still be over the region much of Wednesday, with the trough axis moving through during the day.
Still limited forcing expected, although some of the higher res guidance indicating some weak Mohawk-Hudson Convergence (CSTAR research) as low pressure tracks south/east of the benchmark resulting in scattered snow showers into parts of the Capital District into the Taconics and Berkshires. While any snow accumulation would be minor (Trace to 0.5"), will increase measurable PoPs to 30 percent in these areas. High temperatures look to be slightly below normal with 20s in the higher terrain and 30s in the valleys.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
The pattern aloft becomes more neutral Wed night, with NW flow.
At the surface, a small amplitude ridge will quickly build in from the south/east. This should allow for clearing to occur.
With relatively light winds as well, low temperatures should be quite chilly ranging from lower 10s to lower 20s. Coldest temperatures will be across higher terrain.

With NW flow aloft persisting on Thursday, a fairly weak/sheared upper level disturbance and a surface warm front approaching from the Great Lakes looks to bring scattered snow showers, especially to areas west of the Hudson Valley. Some minor accumulations (< 1") are possible. After a cold start to the day, high temperatures should be similar to Wed, ranging from upper 20s in the mountains to upper 30s in the valleys.

Thur night, ridging aloft starts to build in from the west, while a weak surface ridge will be overhead. Dry conditions are expected with lows milder than the previous few nights, ranging from upper 10s to upper 20s.

On Friday, ridging aloft and low level southwest flow will lead to dry and mild conditions. Highs will get back above normal after a few cool days, with mid/upper 30s in the higher terrain and 40s in lower elevations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Saturday looks to be a mild and dry day, as guidance now consistent on showing the upper level ridge in place along with surface high pressure extending from the southern New England coast to the mid Atlantic region. This should allow for dry conditions to prevail, with a low level SW flow and an anomalously warm air mass (850 mb temperature anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) translating to highs reaching the near or slight above 50F in valleys from around Albany south. The pattern becomes more amplified Sat night, as the strong upper level ridge axis moves off the east coast, while a potent upper level trough will start to approach from the Midwest. It should remain dry/mild through Sat night.

On Sunday, the upper trough is forecast to become negatively tilted as is tracks NE into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. At the surface, a deepening cyclone is expected to track NE across the central Great Lakes with a cold front extending south from the cyclone. Southerly flow intensifies in our area, with NAEFs already indicating southerly (v-component)
wind anomalies at 850 mb increasing to +2 to +3 STDEV.
Temperatures warm considerably ahead of the front, with mid/upper 50s expected in lower elevations Sun afternoon.
Depending on low level stability, strong winds could occur ahead of the cold front approaching from the west.

Guidance coming into somewhat better agreement regarding the timing of the cold front occurring Sun evening or night, but there is still some spread. Anomalously high moisture will surge northward into our region, with PWAT anomalies increasing to +2 to +3 STDEV. With sharp forcing along the cold front and some possible weak low level instability could result in a narrow cold frontal rainband with downpours and potentially strong/gusty winds. Behind the cold front winds shift to the W-SW as the cyclone tracks NE across Quebec. This direction favors high winds mainly north/west of our area, but some strong (Advisory level 45-55 mph) wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Will continue to monitor trends.

Cooler and mainly drier weather expected for early next week in wake of the cold front passage. There may be some lake- enhanced/upslope snow showers in the western Adirondacks, but overall threat looks low with SW flow regime and potential surface ridging from the south/west. Temperatures will still be slightly above normal, but not as warm as over the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z/Thursday...A positively upper level trough will move across the region. MVFR-VFR overcast skies will persist for most of the TAF period. The 00Z ALY sounding continues to show a strong inversion around 825 mb which moisture is trapped under. The short wave rotating through base of the trough will pass well to the south during the day Wednesday. Only some flurries and/or isolated snow showers are expected across the local area. Cloud cover will decrease late in the TAF period as the trough axis/short wave move off to the east and ridging begins to builds in at the surface and aloft. Light northerly flow through the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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