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Marine Weather and Tides Watervliet, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:46AM

Sunset 6:44PM

Sunday September 27, 2020 2:15 AM EDT (06:15 UTC)

Moonrise 5:17PM

Moonset 2:12AM

Illumination 75%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watervliet, NY

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Area Discussion for - Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 270512 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 112 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Warm and muggy weather will continue with chances for much needed rain on the increase as we head through next week. The best chance for widespread rainfall looks to be Tuesday through Wednesday as a potent cold front pushes through the Northeast. Much more seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 1245 AM EDT . GOES-16 Night Fog product shows expansive stratus deck the area with moisture caught under inversions. Clouds will limit coverage and density of fog overnight. With south-southeast surface/low level flow have slight chance for very light rain and drizzle across portions of the eastern Catskills and southern Adirondacks. Mild and muggy overnight, lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s with similar dew points.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Due to persistent southerly flow, low morning stratus clouds tomorrow should once again be stubborn to erode away, especially in north to south oriented valley areas including the Hudson, Housatonic, Connecticut and Schoharie River Valleys. With our off shore coastal disturbance approaching Long Island and southern New England, enhanced south to southeast flow should increase warm air and moisture advection from the ocean. With the flow perpendicular to the terrain in the Catskills and Litchfield Hills, some patchy drizzle or light showers remain possible into tomorrow morning hours as shown in the ECWMF and NAM QPF output.

Guidance suggest that the low level moisture should then decrease enough by 15-16 UTC that our stratus deck should give way to increased sunshine. However, areas south and east of the Capital District likely remain partly to even mostly cloudy due to the approaching coastal low and marine air advecting inland. Areas north/west of Albany, on the other hand, should become partly to mostly sunny as the pressure gradient overhead tightens and low and mid-level flow increases enough to mix out low-level moisture. In addition, surface winds will once again become breezy with southerly winds sustained between 10 and 15kts with gusts to 20kts again.

Otherwise, temperatures tomorrow should once again finish above normal as 850mb isotherms warm up to +14C to +15C. As we eventually break for sun by the afternoon, expect high temperatures to rise into low to mid 70s with even some upper 70s possible the Hudson Valley. Despite such warm air aloft, sfc temperatures likely won't warm up to their maximum potential given shallow boundary layer depths only up to ~900mb. In fact, areas in NW CT and mid-Hudson Valley may very well stay a bit cooler due to the marine influenced air mass overhead. Best chance for temperatures to overachieve will be north and west of the Capital District should these areas break for sun earlier. Dew points will once again be high in the 60s so it will feel humid again.

The synoptic pattern becomes more meridional heading into Sunday night and Monday as an amplifying trough digs longitudinally into the Great Plains and eventually the Gulf Coast states. As a result, flow over the Northeast becomes southwesterly with a few shortwaves embedded in the flow advecting into our region. This will lead to increasing chances for some intermittent showers Sunday night through the first half of Monday. Some breaks for dry time are possible Monday afternoon as shortwaves exit into northern New England and areas of subsidence follow. However, skies likely remain mostly cloudy due to ongoing strong warm air advection with above normal temperatures and humid conditions remaining in place.

Chances for showers increase again Monday night as a surface low exiting into Quebec drags a potent cold front towards the Northeast. Guidance has trended slow with the front's arrival time into our eastern NY zones as a strong ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic blocks in intrusion. Even still, we continued to show low end chance POPs through 12 Tuesday but confidence is increasing that the main area of rain (and possibly a few rumbles of thunder) holds off until daytime. Otherwise, expect yet another muggy and mild night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Quite the pattern change coming up for the week ahead for a vast majority of the country. The extended forecast period will continue to focus on the large-scale pattern becoming highly amplified with anomalous upper ridging over North America (reflective of a +PNA/Positive Pacific North American Oscillation signature) and anomalous downstream troughing over the central and eastern North America (reflective of -AO/Negative Arctic Oscillation and - NAO/Negative North Atlantic Oscillation signatures). This development in the large-scale pattern will not only bring a stark temperature contrast between western CONUS and central/eastern CONUS, but will bring a pretty impressive change to the weather pattern for most. For us that means a trend to cooler than normal temperatures (that of October) and unsettled weather/much-needed rainfall.

Forecast models and their ensembles have come into better agreement with the H500 pattern regarding the flow separation from the parent upper trough. The ECMWF, NAM, GFS, and Canadian NH all depict flow separation with the development of a closed upper low digging into the southern U.S. with the main upper trough being located over Canada into the north-central U.S. There still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing of the closed low and evolution of embedded mid to upper level perturbations that will be associated with the upper trough/closed low.

On Tuesday, the FA will be placed under a strong southwest flow aloft regime with strong moisture/isentropic advection ahead of the upper trough and associated cold fronts. Atmospheric forcing will be stronger on Tuesday (as compared to Monday) with the forecast area being in closer proximity to the aforementioned upper trough and cold front. This will support rain showers to develop ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Given that strong upper ridging will be in place over the North Atlantic, the large-scale pattern will not be too progressive meaning that the upper trough axis will remain to our west across the central/east-central United States. Additionally, this also supports the potential for the cold front to slow/stall near the FA allowing for clouds/showers to persist through Wednesday.

There are differences amongst the forecast guidances in the timing of the closed upper low that will track northeastward from the southern U.S. and up the East Coast with the GFS being the fastest in the lifting the closed low, the ECMWF being the slowest, and the Canadian-NH being middle of the road. This as a result yields impacts as far as precipitation trends particularly for Thursday. By Thursday morning, the GFS/Canadian has much of the rain out of the area with the closed low having already phased with the upper trough on Wednesday, while the ECMWF has the second batch of rain associated with the closed upper low over the FA with rain ending sometime Thursday afternoon. Given the differences amongst the forecast models, have just 30% PoPs for Thursday.

Thermal profiles will be decreasing as colder air advects into the region after the fropa Thursday night. With the upper trough spinning over the Great Lakes region (the forecast area remaining on the eastern flank of the upper trough) and given how cold aloft it will be, there's the potential for instability and maybe even some lake enhanced rain showers to hang around Friday and Saturday. The best timing for these instability/lake enhanced showers will be during the prime diurnal hours or hours of max differential heating. For now have 20-40% Pops on Friday (highest northwest, lowest southeast), and 20% PoPs on Saturday.

So a period of wet/unsettled weather is on tab for the FA next week. With Albany sitting at only 0.50 inches of rainfall for the month, 2.21 inches below normal, the rainfall will be welcomed.

As mentioned earlier, temperatures will steadily be on the decline with high temperatures decreasing a few degrees each day. Anomalies will go from warmer than normal levels on Tuesday to cooler than normal anomalies by the end of the period. With the trough axis still remaining to our west, the epicenter of the most extreme anomalies will remain across the central United States. High temperatures will go from the mid-70s on Tuesday to the upper 50s/low 60s by Saturday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s/50s with some 30s across the higher terrain Thursday night- Saturday night.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure off the New England coast will maintain a humid southerly flow through Sunday night.

Low clouds will continue to form over the next few hours, with most TAF sites becoming low MVFR to IFR (for Cigs) by 10Z/Sun, with these Cigs then persisting through around 14Z/Sun. Vsbys should remain VFR to MVFR, as the cloud coverage and some wind should limit fog potential. However, some Cigs could dip into the LIFR range around 12Z/Sun.

The low Cigs should gradually lift between 14Z-16Z/Sun, with VFR conditions expected for most of the afternoon.

Cigs should then lower into the MVFR range Sunday evening between 03Z-06Z/Mon. There could be a few pockets of IFR Cigs, especially at KPSF, toward 06Z/Mon. In addition, some spotty light showers/patchy drizzle may also develop and affect KPOU and KPSF toward 06Z/Mon, possibly with MVFR Vsbys.

Winds will remain from the south to southeast at 4-8 KT through daybreak, then increase to 8-12 KT by mid morning and continuing through Sunday afternoon. Some gusts could reach 20-25 KT, with greatest chances at KALB. South to southeast winds should decrease to 5-10 KT Sunday night.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected into early next week. Some much needed rain is on the way with widespread showers anticipated heading into the mid-week period as cold front approaches and crosses the region. A cooler, seasonable airmass will be ushered into the area with the passage the front with a continued threat for showers through Thursday.

Tonight, relative humidity values will climb back to between 95-100 percent with patchy fog and dew formation. On Sunday, southerly winds of 10-18 mph with a few higher gusts are expected with minimum relative humidity values between 50 and 70 percent.

HYDROLOGY. Some much needed rain is on the way heading into the mid-week period. In the meantime, only very light QPF is possible through Monday night. As a cold front approaches and crosses the region through Wednesday, moderate rainfall amounts are anticipated. Latest QPF from global models suggest one to three inches across the region. Due to antecedent dry conditions, and per MMEFS, these rainfall amounts should not have too much effect on water levels. Thereafter, a continued threat for showers through Thursday as another front approaches and crosses the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . IAA/Speciale NEAR TERM . IAA SHORT TERM . Speciale LONG TERM . Evbuoma AVIATION . KL FIRE WEATHER . IAA/BGM HYDROLOGY . IAA/BGM

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Albany International Airport, NY	6 mi	24 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	65°F	63°F	93%	1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY

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