Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Watervliet, NY

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:49PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:54 PM EDT (19:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:56PMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watervliet, NY
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location: 42.73, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 211824
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
224 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks
northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly
becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the
area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into
Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper
level disturbance passes nearby.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Severe thunderstorm watch 609 has been issued for much of
eastern new york and western new england, except for the
adirondacks, and lake george region through 900 pm.

As of 129 pm... We are watching two areas of showers and storms
early this afternoon... One across southern litchfield and
another across the western mohawk valley. The storm in
litchfield should exit in the next hour, while the storms in the
mohawk valley are expected to track east and intensify as they
move into a favorable environment with 1000-1500 j kg SBCAPE and
30-40 kt of effective wind shear from SPC mesoanalysis. Cams
have been inconsistent with forecasting placement timing of
convection this afternoon. The activity moving through the
mohawk valley is associated with a short wave approaching from
the west. Convective mode is expected to be mainly multicells
with lines and also some supercell structures given the shear
magnitude.

The main threats will be damaging winds, however large hail
will also be possible with the tallest cores due to the fairly
strong deep layer shear. Severe threat looks to be lower across
the adirondacks and lake george areas, where extensive cloud
cover remains in place, thus limiting instability.

In addition, 12z href indicating low level helicity (both 0-1
km and 0-3 km) increasing to over 100 m2 s2 from around the
hudson river valley and points east into early this evening.

So, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat today, as there is some
potential for training backbuilding of cells, despite relatively
quick forward movement. Isolated flash flooding may occur if
cells train and repeated thunderstorms occur in any location.

Otherwise, even non-training cells will easily have the
potential to cause ponding of water in poor drainage, urban and
low lying areas.

It appears the best potential for severe thunderstorms time-wise
may be roughly between 2 pm and 8 pm.

Highs reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s most areas, although
some mid upper 80s could occur if some Sun breaks through at
times within the mid hudson valley and lower elevations in nw
ct.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Tonight, there still could be isolated to scattered
thunderstorms through midnight, as mid level heights continue
lowering with the approach of the main trough and surface cold
front from the west. Convective chances should decrease after
midnight, with patchy areas of fog possibly developing. Lows
mainly in the 60s.

Thursday, the surface cold front will slowly cross the region
from NW to se, with the approach of a positively tilted trough
from the great lakes. Isolated showers will remain possible
until the front passes, and can not rule out some non-severe
thunderstorms across portions of the mid hudson valley and NW ct
during the early-mid afternoon hours as href mean mu capes reach
500-1000 j kg. Highs should reach the lower mid 80s in valley
areas, and 70s most higher terrain areas. Some upper 80s may
occur across portions of the mid hudson valley where downsloping
nw winds will be possible.

Thursday night, the 00z 21 NAM and ECMWF suggest a wave of low
pressure potentially ripples along the frontal boundary to our
south. This may allow showers to redevelop and expand as far
north as the i-90 corridor. Have indicated slight chance to low
chance pops to account for this possibility. Lows in the 50s to
lower 60s.

Friday-Friday night, cooler and less humid conditions are
expected. Still can not rule out an isolated shower Friday with
the passage of the main upper level trough cold pool, with
chances mainly across northern areas. Highs Friday mainly in the
70s in valleys, with some 60s across higher terrain areas. Lows
Friday night in the 50s, with 40s possible across northern
areas.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Despite some differences in the modeled flow pattern between the
ecmwf and NCEP camps, fairly good agreement that the long term
period will have very low probability of hazardous weather. The
airmass will likely be fairly dry with model consensus of pwats less
than 0.75 inches for the most part except perhaps for Tuesday. The
main difference within the medium range guidance is that the last
two runs of the ECMWF show a deeper and westward-shifted trough
compared with the gfs GEFS mean. The ECMWF suggests this low cuts
off and hovers over the region for Sunday Monday, while the GFS gefs
mean shunt the trough eastward and do not develop a cutoff, allowing
the upstream ridge to build overhead. The difference in the sensible
weather with a cutoff would likely be more cloud cover and perhaps
some diurnal showers. At this time, will lean toward the ncep
solution noting the absence of GEFS members showing a cutoff. The
upshot is a dry forecast for Saturday through Monday with
comfortable humidity levels and temperatures near to slightly below
normal. Will introduce chance pops for Tuesday as the GFS and some
gefs members indicate the ridge shifting east with ascent and
moisture return ahead of an advancing trough.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
Clouds are breaking for Sun early this afternoon for pou and alb
and these breaks are spreading eastward towards psf. This will
result inVFR conditions. Gfl remains north of the warm front
which should keep MVFR and ifr conditions in place through the
afternoon. A line of strong thunderstorms is moving down the
mohawk valley with some storms along this line already severe.

Damaging winds are the main concern these storms but even an
isolated tornado. The main time window for thunderstorms looks
to be 20z 21-00z 22 at gfl and alb and then 21z 21-02z 22 for
pou and psf.

During thunderstorms, brief periods of ifr vsby and MVFR ceilings
are possible but outside of thunderstorms expect mainlyVFR
conditions with stratocumulus based around 3.5-5kft agl. In
addition, winds may shift westerly with strong wind gusts in excess
of 30kt.

After 00z 22 - 02z 22, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in
intensity and coverage. Since winds will remain under 5kts and
southerly overnight, some mist and MVFR ceilings or brief ifr
ceilings (especially 06z 22 to 12z 22) may develop, especially at
kgfl kpsf. Visibility restrictions after 06z are also possible at
all TAF with the typically foggier spots at kpsf kgfl seeing ifr
vsby. Did not include reduced visibility during this update but
future updates may adjust.

After sunrise, ifr MVFR ceilings and or visibility should return to
vfr as winds shift westerly generally after 13z-15z with the frontal
passage. Winds will also increase to 5-10kts with stronger gusts
possible during peak heating. Future TAF updates will include the
breezy winds.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: low operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
It will become warm and muggy today as a warm front tracks
northward. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected today into this evening, with some storms possibly
becoming severe. Additional rain showers are possible on
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front slowly crosses the
area. Fair and cool weather is forecast for Friday into
Saturday, with isolated showers possible by Sunday as an upper
level disturbance passes nearby.

Hydrology
An anomalously moist airmass will spread back into the region
today with pwat values increasing to 1.50-2.00 inches. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the moist
airmass, and any storm will be capable of heavy rainfall.

Though individual storms may be fast moving, there is potential
for repeated rounds of storms which will lead to the threat of
urban poor drainage flooding and possible isolated flash
flooding.

Isolated showers are possible Thursday, with showers possible
across southern areas Thursday night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd kl
near term... Kl jpv speciale
short term... Kl
long term... Thompson
aviation... Speciale
fire weather... Mse kl thompson
hydrology... Mse kl thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 51 mi85 min SSW 1 82°F 1011 hPa74°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY6 mi2.1 hrsS 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F71°F74%1010.9 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY15 mi2 hrsS 610.00 miOvercast79°F73°F84%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4Calm--S8SE3Calm------------------SE7E4----W8S5S12
G16
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G18
1 day ago--W8NW5NW4NW7W6W4SW4------NW4----CalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmSW4CalmCalm3
2 days agoS5S7E5N6SW11
G25
CalmS7S7------S5----S4S6S6S7CalmSE6W5N6NW46

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Wed -- 04:27 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:41 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:11 PM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.61.71.20.80.40.41.42.73.74.24.23.72.71.50.70.3-0.1-0.20.62.13.54.24.54.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Wed -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:31 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:03 PM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.61.10.70.30.51.62.93.84.24.23.62.51.30.70.3-0.1-0.10.82.33.64.34.54.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.