Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Watervliet, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:23PM Sunday December 15, 2019 3:24 PM EST (20:24 UTC) Moonrise 9:02PMMoonset 11:20AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watervliet, NY
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location: 42.73, -73.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 151751 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1251 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong gusty winds and colder temperatures affect the region through tonight. Another storm system approaching from the west is expected to bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region late Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Wind Advisory continues for the southern Green Mountains Vermont, Berkshires, Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Capital District, northern and central Taconics, eastern Catskills, and Fulton and Hamilton Counties through 7 PM this evening .

As of 1247 PM EST . Winter Weather Advisory for northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties has been allowed to expire. Lake effect snow bands that were over the area are quickly shifting southward into the Mohawk Valley as the flow trajectory becomes more W-NW this afternoon. Other fragments of lake effect snow bands from Lake Erie have been moving through Schoharie County and the northern Catskills. These snow showers could result in a quick half inch of snow as they shift southward as well. Any lake effect activity that reaches the Hudson Valley will likely be mixed rain/snow and not produce any accumulation on paved surfaces as surface temperatures are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Outside the valley in the higher terrain temps are colder in the lower to mid 30s, so some minor accumulations and slippery spots are possible.

The cyclone lifting into Canada will strengthen rapidly, tightening the pressure gradient and west to northwest winds will continue to gust between 40 and 50 mph in the Wind Advisory area. Clouds will be slow to erode as flow off the great lakes and an inversion at the boundary layer will keep cloud cover over our region most of the day. There will be some intervals of breaks in areas east of higher terrain where some downslope occurs.

Some light upslope snow shower activity into the southern Green Mountains and Berkshires will diminish through the day as well. Highs today in the 30s to lower 40s but some mid 40s mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Winds diminish through tonight and clouds will gradually break up as the inversion become shallower and better subsidence shifts over our region. Some high clouds well in advance of the next system could filter into the region through the night and low temperatures will depend on how well the lower clouds break up and if high clouds spread over our region by daybreak.

Sources of guidance/ensembles have trended toward a later onset of precipitation for the next system early Tuesday morning. West flow from the boundary layer through midlevels and a dry layer from the surface through the boundary layer will result in a delay in deeper moisture entering our region. So, clouds increase and thicken through Monday and Monday evening with highs Monday from around 30 to mid 30s but mid to upper 20s in higher terrain.

Upper energy approaches from the west Monday night and the flow from the boundary layer through midlevels turns more southwest. Increasing frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa and 700-500 hPa layers increases by daybreak Tuesday along with deeper moisture advection and isentropic lift. Based on forecasted thermal and moisture profiles, snow begins in most areas by daybreak Tuesday and continues through much of the day. Areas south of the Capital Region to southern Berkshires and NW CT will likely see a mix of sleet and a chance of freezing rain as some warming aloft takes place.

By Tuesday evening, the system begins to exit and deeper cooling begins to spread into our region, changing mixed precipitation in southern areas to all snow for a brief time before all precipitation ends. Based on predicted liquid equivalent precipitation from guidance/ensembles, Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed once there is more confidence and more consistency in sources of guidance/ensembles of the location of the precipitation transition zone and snow and ice amounts.

Highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to lower 30s but some mid 30s possible in southern areas. Precipitation ends Tuesday night and with at least some partial clearing, temperatures fall into the teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Much of the long term will feature dry weather with frigid temperatures.

In the wake of the early-week storm system, lake-enhanced snow showers are expected to develop for the day Wednesday. This is in response to the main upper trough passing overhead. Most probable locations to see snow accumulations will be across the Dacks but cannot rule out light dustings elsewhere. Snow showers should taper off Wednesday night as the trough exits to the east.

Frigid temperatures settle in for Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. In fact, the high terrain locations are expected to drop into the single digits to just below zero Wednesday night. Highs on Thursday will average 10-15 degrees below normal with the Capital District barely reaching 20 degrees. Thursday night looks to be the coldest of the period will the entire forecast area dropping into the single digits (below zero in the Dacks).

Temperatures gradually moderate closer to normal by the weekend with dry weather continuing. The next chance for precipitation may arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a coastal low forms somewhere off the east coast. Global model guidance varies significantly with the placement of this coastal low so have limited PoPs to slight chance this far out into the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions expected at POU and ALB through the remainder of the TAF period. We include potential MVFR ceilings at PSF due to snow showers this afternoon into early tonight. We also included a TEMPO group at GFL as snow showers continue to stream westerly off Lake Ontario towards GFL this afternoon and could briefly lead to MVFR ceilings.

The only other concern today is strong westerly winds with wind gusts up to 40kts possible at ALB and PSF through 03z/16. GFL and POU should be a little more sheltered and winds should only reach up to 30-35kts before also decreasing early this evening. Wind gusts could stay between 20-25kts until 06z at all TAF sites after which winds likely weaken.

Outlook .

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHSN. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. There are river flood warnings in effect at Falls Village, Gaylordsville and Brookfield. Water levels will fall below flood stage through the day today and into tonight.

Another storm system will bring snow and or a wintry mix to the region, with bitter arctic cold expected from the middle of next week through at least the end of the work week. With colder air in place and primarily frozen precip expected, no additional flooding is anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ033-038>040- 047>054-058-061-063-082. MA . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025. VT . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ013-014.

SYNOPSIS . NAS NEAR TERM . NAS/JPV SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . JLV AVIATION . Speciale HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 51 mi54 min WSW 8 43°F 1008 hPa23°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY6 mi33 minW 29 G 4110.00 miMostly Cloudy and Windy38°F24°F57%1009.2 hPa
Schenectady Airport, NY15 mi38 minWNW 26 G 367.00 miOvercast and Windy34°F26°F75%1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KALB

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3Calm4S6W9W16
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1 day agoS5CalmNE4NE4N4CalmCalmN3N3N4NW3N5N3CalmCalmW6N5CalmNW4N3CalmSE3NE3Calm
2 days agoS4S5S6S5S12S6S11S7S10S14
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S6S8S7S8S6S7S5SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:47 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:46 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:20 PM EST     5.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70-0.20.51.93.23.94.23.93.11.910.50.200.72.33.955.55.44.63.22

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:37 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:36 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:12 PM EST     5.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.1-0.20.72.23.344.23.92.91.70.90.50.10.10.92.64.15.15.55.34.431.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.