Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Watervliet, NY
May 14, 2024 7:13 AM EDT (11:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 11:17 AM Moonset 1:48 AM |
FXUS61 KALY 141057 AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 657 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Morning sun today will mix behind increasing afternoon clouds with temperatures becoming warm and summer-like. A weak cold front will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially north of Interstate 90, with storms capable of brief downpours. Chances for showers continue Tuesday night and Wednesday before turning more scattered for Thursday as an upper level disturbance tracks to our south.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:50am...Latest GOES 16 satellite imagery show mainly sunny skies in place to start our Tuesday morning with our warm front well to our northeast and a weak cold front positioned over southern Ontario near the international border. Despite the clear skies, temperatures remained mild overnight with lows only dropping into the 50s thanks to us being in the warm sector. Some patchy fog developed as well but will quickly burn off as the strong May sun angle continues to rise. Otherwise, we will enjoy sun and dry weather through early afternoon with high temperatures still expected to reach into the low 80s in the valley. We delayed the onset of chance POPs based on the latest CAM guidance which delays showers and storms spilling into our southern Adirondack areas until near or shortly after 18 UTC.
Previous discussion..We are in store for a summer-like day today as a warm front remains mainly north of our area and upper level ridging and southwesterly flow aloft ushers in a very warm air mass into eastern NY and western New England. 850hPa isotherms reaching +10C to +11C, a period of mainly sunny skies through early afternoon and drier air filtering into the low and mid- levels should all support deep boundary mixing resulting in afternoon high temperatures reaching well into the 70s with low 80s in the Mohawk and Hudson Valley. Dew points luckily will only be in the 50s thanks to the deep mixing so it will not feel overly humid despite the summer-like temperatures. We leaned on the warmer end of guidance for high temperatures given the dry and sunny conditions expected through early afternoon.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this afternoon, especially for the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley as a weak/diffuse boundary from southern Ontario slowly sinks south and eastward. Since the thermal and moisture gradient along this boundary is weak and upper level ridging really does not flatten out until tonight, we limited likely POPs to areas north and west of the Capital District with just chance and slight chance POPs for areas from I-90 southward. CAMs and high res guidance support this thinking as well. Areas in the mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills have the greatest likelihood of remaining mainly dry today as they are displaced furthest south and east from the boundary.
The air mass ahead of the front looks to destabilize this afternoon as showalter values trend towards 0 and mid-level lapse steepen to around 6C/km. Dew points in the 50s should combine with insolation to lead to SB CAPE values ranging 500 - 1000J/kg. The lower dew points should limit the overall amount of SB CAPE that develops but should still be sufficient to support storms. Deep layer shear is not very strong at just 25-30kts but should be strong enough that some gusty winds winds and small hail (thanks to wet-bulb zero heights under 10kft) are not completely ruled out in any stronger storms. But strong storms should be isolated at best given weak overall forcing. PWATs rise above 1" ahead of the front so any thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours.
An upper level shortwave trough from the Midwest slowly tracks into the Ohio Valley tonight with our weak/diffuse boundary lifting northward back into the North Country. Gradual height falls and weak embedded shortwaves ahead of the trough spilling into the region will support continued showers overnight. Instability wanes after sunset so chances for thunderstorms diminishes by 00 - 03 UTC. CAMs and deterministic guidance are in rather good agreement that periods of rain track north and eastward into our region overnight due to the incoming shortwaves, increased moisture, and weak warm air advection. We therefore increased POPS to likely and high end chance for much of eastern NY and western New England overnight. Otherwise, cloudy skies and elevated dew points in the 50s to near 60 should support a warm and even somewhat muggy night with overnight lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s with near 60 in the valley.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The upper level trough from the Ohio Valley continues its slow eastward push through the day Wednesday with weak height falls continuing to spread in the Northeast. Moisture streams northeastward and will become focused along the aforementioned weak boundary as it sinks back southward towards the western and southern Adirondacks. While overall forcing is weak and muddled, plenty of mid-level moisture will likely support mostly cloudy skies for much of the day which when combined with south to southeasterly winds, temperatures should trend cooler compared to Tuesday only reaching into the 60s to low 70s. We once again placed likely POPs closer to our weak boundary in areas mainly north and west of Albany with just chance POPs elsewhere. Not expecting a washout of day but there will likely be on and off showers around much of the day. POPs trend lower by late afternoon as high pressure positioned off the New England coast builds inland which should suppress shower activity, especially for areas near and east of the Hudson.
Our weak boundary once again lifts northward Wednesday night as our upper level trough slides into the mid-Atlantic. Showers from this trough could scrape southern zones including the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT overnight but given some forecast uncertainty, continued to message generally widespread chance POPs overnight. Temperatures again remain mild thanks to clouds and the muggy air mass with lows only in the mid to upper 50s.
The Thursday forecast has trended a bit more pessimistic compared to a few days as guidance is in better agreement that the upper level trough will still be around and thus influence our sensible weather. While the shortwave will be weakly closed off and centered well to our south over DE/southern NJ, upper level divergence and its warm conveyor belt look to extend into far southern zones including the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT supporting showers. We therefore continue to message chance POPs here for much of the day. Further north, the weak boundary sinks back southward into the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley which should support scattered shower and even a slight chance thunderstorm activity. However, the Capital District and I-90 corridor into Berkshire County and southern VT could actually escape rather unscathed from showers on Thursday as high pressure off the New England coast looks to provide enough subsidence to suppress showers with clouds even thinning or breaking for sun. Given the reduced POPs and increased sun potential, temperatures here should actually be the warmest in the forecast area with highs reaching into the mid-70s. We actually leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temperatures here given the potential for breaks of sun. Elsewhere where shower potential is higher and sfc winds will be out of the east-northeast, temperatures should be a bit cooler only reaching into the upper 60s to around 70.
Showers and clouds diminish Thursday night as our slow moving upper level low finally exits off shore and upper level ridging builds in its wake. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Despite persisting uncertainty surrounding the evolution of key features that will drive expected conditions throughout the extended forecast period, general consensus points toward an unsettled pattern that will lead to potentially multiple rounds of showers and occasional thunderstorms for eastern New York and western New England....
Friday looks to be a mainly dry day with high pressure nosing in across the region between a coastal low spinning just off the Mid- Atlantic and New England Coastlines and an approaching upper-level disturbance to the west. Highs look to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s despite an expected fair amount of cloud cover. Multiple rounds of showers become possible beginning late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon and through possibly the remainder of the forecast period as eastern New York and western New England become influenced by two upper-level disturbances: a northern-stream, negatively-tilted wave and a southern stream shortwave potentially evolving over time into a cutoff low. While it is still uncertain how these two features will interact, models generally agree, at this time, in the lack of phasing of these two disturbances.
Therefore, showers look to initially result from the swift rotation of the northern-stream wave about the region Saturday. Additional showers Sunday and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder Monday would result from the approach of the southern-stream, cutoff low.
However, confidence is low pertaining to spatial spread and duration of these additional showers given the amount of uncertainty in the evolution of this feature. One consistency that does exist, however, is light QPF despite the possible multiple days worth of showers.
Will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.
High temperatures Saturday look to be the coolest of the long term period with primarily 60s and pockets near 70 across the region.
Sunday will feature temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s much like Friday with low to upper 70s expected Monday. Low temperatures throughout the period will fall in the upper 40s to 50s.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this morning with variable cloud cover across eastern New York and western New England. Such conditions are anticipated to remain steady throughout much of the 06z TAF period despite the expectation of a gradual increase in cloud cover in response to a nearing low pressure system and associate cold front.
However, with plenty of low- level dry air as shown on latest forecast soundings, developing ceilings will remain at heights well within VFR thresholds.
The only way that VFR conditions will be disturbed throughout this 06z cycle is in the event a shower or thunderstorm cross one of the terminals later this evening. Latest models show convection to be highly scattered in nature, with the most consistent signal for a few showers or thunderstorms to impact the KGFL terminal. Therefore, included a PROB30 group for a period of light showers at KGFL later in the period. However, until confidence grows in the spatial coverage and likelihood of thunderstorms, left thunder out of the TAFs. Additionally, with such a scattered nature to any precipitation, left any showers out of the other terminals until, once again, confidence increases in whether or not they could be impacted. It is also possible, based on latest guidance, that showers could remain outside of the duration of this cycle. Will provide further details in later updates.
Winds throughout the 06z period will prevail out of a south to southwest direction at sustained speeds of 6-12 kt. A few gusts at KALB and KPSF are likely at speeds of 20-25 kt.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 657 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Morning sun today will mix behind increasing afternoon clouds with temperatures becoming warm and summer-like. A weak cold front will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, especially north of Interstate 90, with storms capable of brief downpours. Chances for showers continue Tuesday night and Wednesday before turning more scattered for Thursday as an upper level disturbance tracks to our south.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 6:50am...Latest GOES 16 satellite imagery show mainly sunny skies in place to start our Tuesday morning with our warm front well to our northeast and a weak cold front positioned over southern Ontario near the international border. Despite the clear skies, temperatures remained mild overnight with lows only dropping into the 50s thanks to us being in the warm sector. Some patchy fog developed as well but will quickly burn off as the strong May sun angle continues to rise. Otherwise, we will enjoy sun and dry weather through early afternoon with high temperatures still expected to reach into the low 80s in the valley. We delayed the onset of chance POPs based on the latest CAM guidance which delays showers and storms spilling into our southern Adirondack areas until near or shortly after 18 UTC.
Previous discussion..We are in store for a summer-like day today as a warm front remains mainly north of our area and upper level ridging and southwesterly flow aloft ushers in a very warm air mass into eastern NY and western New England. 850hPa isotherms reaching +10C to +11C, a period of mainly sunny skies through early afternoon and drier air filtering into the low and mid- levels should all support deep boundary mixing resulting in afternoon high temperatures reaching well into the 70s with low 80s in the Mohawk and Hudson Valley. Dew points luckily will only be in the 50s thanks to the deep mixing so it will not feel overly humid despite the summer-like temperatures. We leaned on the warmer end of guidance for high temperatures given the dry and sunny conditions expected through early afternoon.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this afternoon, especially for the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley as a weak/diffuse boundary from southern Ontario slowly sinks south and eastward. Since the thermal and moisture gradient along this boundary is weak and upper level ridging really does not flatten out until tonight, we limited likely POPs to areas north and west of the Capital District with just chance and slight chance POPs for areas from I-90 southward. CAMs and high res guidance support this thinking as well. Areas in the mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills have the greatest likelihood of remaining mainly dry today as they are displaced furthest south and east from the boundary.
The air mass ahead of the front looks to destabilize this afternoon as showalter values trend towards 0 and mid-level lapse steepen to around 6C/km. Dew points in the 50s should combine with insolation to lead to SB CAPE values ranging 500 - 1000J/kg. The lower dew points should limit the overall amount of SB CAPE that develops but should still be sufficient to support storms. Deep layer shear is not very strong at just 25-30kts but should be strong enough that some gusty winds winds and small hail (thanks to wet-bulb zero heights under 10kft) are not completely ruled out in any stronger storms. But strong storms should be isolated at best given weak overall forcing. PWATs rise above 1" ahead of the front so any thunderstorms will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours.
An upper level shortwave trough from the Midwest slowly tracks into the Ohio Valley tonight with our weak/diffuse boundary lifting northward back into the North Country. Gradual height falls and weak embedded shortwaves ahead of the trough spilling into the region will support continued showers overnight. Instability wanes after sunset so chances for thunderstorms diminishes by 00 - 03 UTC. CAMs and deterministic guidance are in rather good agreement that periods of rain track north and eastward into our region overnight due to the incoming shortwaves, increased moisture, and weak warm air advection. We therefore increased POPS to likely and high end chance for much of eastern NY and western New England overnight. Otherwise, cloudy skies and elevated dew points in the 50s to near 60 should support a warm and even somewhat muggy night with overnight lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s with near 60 in the valley.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The upper level trough from the Ohio Valley continues its slow eastward push through the day Wednesday with weak height falls continuing to spread in the Northeast. Moisture streams northeastward and will become focused along the aforementioned weak boundary as it sinks back southward towards the western and southern Adirondacks. While overall forcing is weak and muddled, plenty of mid-level moisture will likely support mostly cloudy skies for much of the day which when combined with south to southeasterly winds, temperatures should trend cooler compared to Tuesday only reaching into the 60s to low 70s. We once again placed likely POPs closer to our weak boundary in areas mainly north and west of Albany with just chance POPs elsewhere. Not expecting a washout of day but there will likely be on and off showers around much of the day. POPs trend lower by late afternoon as high pressure positioned off the New England coast builds inland which should suppress shower activity, especially for areas near and east of the Hudson.
Our weak boundary once again lifts northward Wednesday night as our upper level trough slides into the mid-Atlantic. Showers from this trough could scrape southern zones including the mid- Hudson Valley and NW CT overnight but given some forecast uncertainty, continued to message generally widespread chance POPs overnight. Temperatures again remain mild thanks to clouds and the muggy air mass with lows only in the mid to upper 50s.
The Thursday forecast has trended a bit more pessimistic compared to a few days as guidance is in better agreement that the upper level trough will still be around and thus influence our sensible weather. While the shortwave will be weakly closed off and centered well to our south over DE/southern NJ, upper level divergence and its warm conveyor belt look to extend into far southern zones including the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT supporting showers. We therefore continue to message chance POPs here for much of the day. Further north, the weak boundary sinks back southward into the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson Valley which should support scattered shower and even a slight chance thunderstorm activity. However, the Capital District and I-90 corridor into Berkshire County and southern VT could actually escape rather unscathed from showers on Thursday as high pressure off the New England coast looks to provide enough subsidence to suppress showers with clouds even thinning or breaking for sun. Given the reduced POPs and increased sun potential, temperatures here should actually be the warmest in the forecast area with highs reaching into the mid-70s. We actually leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temperatures here given the potential for breaks of sun. Elsewhere where shower potential is higher and sfc winds will be out of the east-northeast, temperatures should be a bit cooler only reaching into the upper 60s to around 70.
Showers and clouds diminish Thursday night as our slow moving upper level low finally exits off shore and upper level ridging builds in its wake. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Despite persisting uncertainty surrounding the evolution of key features that will drive expected conditions throughout the extended forecast period, general consensus points toward an unsettled pattern that will lead to potentially multiple rounds of showers and occasional thunderstorms for eastern New York and western New England....
Friday looks to be a mainly dry day with high pressure nosing in across the region between a coastal low spinning just off the Mid- Atlantic and New England Coastlines and an approaching upper-level disturbance to the west. Highs look to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s despite an expected fair amount of cloud cover. Multiple rounds of showers become possible beginning late Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon and through possibly the remainder of the forecast period as eastern New York and western New England become influenced by two upper-level disturbances: a northern-stream, negatively-tilted wave and a southern stream shortwave potentially evolving over time into a cutoff low. While it is still uncertain how these two features will interact, models generally agree, at this time, in the lack of phasing of these two disturbances.
Therefore, showers look to initially result from the swift rotation of the northern-stream wave about the region Saturday. Additional showers Sunday and possibly some embedded rumbles of thunder Monday would result from the approach of the southern-stream, cutoff low.
However, confidence is low pertaining to spatial spread and duration of these additional showers given the amount of uncertainty in the evolution of this feature. One consistency that does exist, however, is light QPF despite the possible multiple days worth of showers.
Will continue to monitor trends over the coming days.
High temperatures Saturday look to be the coolest of the long term period with primarily 60s and pockets near 70 across the region.
Sunday will feature temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s much like Friday with low to upper 70s expected Monday. Low temperatures throughout the period will fall in the upper 40s to 50s.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this morning with variable cloud cover across eastern New York and western New England. Such conditions are anticipated to remain steady throughout much of the 06z TAF period despite the expectation of a gradual increase in cloud cover in response to a nearing low pressure system and associate cold front.
However, with plenty of low- level dry air as shown on latest forecast soundings, developing ceilings will remain at heights well within VFR thresholds.
The only way that VFR conditions will be disturbed throughout this 06z cycle is in the event a shower or thunderstorm cross one of the terminals later this evening. Latest models show convection to be highly scattered in nature, with the most consistent signal for a few showers or thunderstorms to impact the KGFL terminal. Therefore, included a PROB30 group for a period of light showers at KGFL later in the period. However, until confidence grows in the spatial coverage and likelihood of thunderstorms, left thunder out of the TAFs. Additionally, with such a scattered nature to any precipitation, left any showers out of the other terminals until, once again, confidence increases in whether or not they could be impacted. It is also possible, based on latest guidance, that showers could remain outside of the duration of this cycle. Will provide further details in later updates.
Winds throughout the 06z period will prevail out of a south to southwest direction at sustained speeds of 6-12 kt. A few gusts at KALB and KPSF are likely at speeds of 20-25 kt.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KALB ALBANY INTL,NY | 5 sm | 22 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 59°F | 52°F | 77% | 29.94 |
Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:57 AM EDT 0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM EDT 5.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:22 PM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:57 AM EDT 0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:38 AM EDT 5.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:22 PM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 3.8 |
| 9 am |
| 4.7 |
| 10 am |
| 5.2 |
| 11 am |
| 5.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.2 |
Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:47 AM EDT 0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:30 AM EDT 5.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:14 PM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 04:47 AM EDT 0.85 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:30 AM EDT 5.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:32 PM EDT 0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:14 PM EDT 4.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 3.5 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 2.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2.8 |
| 8 am |
| 4 |
| 9 am |
| 4.8 |
| 10 am |
| 5.2 |
| 11 am |
| 5.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 4.3 |
Albany, NY,
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