Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hartwick, NY
December 7, 2023 3:47 PM EST (20:47 UTC)
Sunrise 7:17AM Sunset 4:27PM Moonrise 1:31AM Moonset 1:28PM
LOZ044 Expires:202312071615;;042503 Fzus51 Kbuf 070827 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 327 am est Thu dec 7 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-071615- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 327 am est Thu dec 7 2023
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow with a chance of rain this morning, then rain and snow showers likely this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 327 am est Thu dec 7 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-071615- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 327 am est Thu dec 7 2023
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow with a chance of rain this morning, then rain and snow showers likely this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ005
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBGM 072044 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 344 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Light snow will gradually come to an end by tonight with some lingering lake effect flurries north of the Thruway. A warm up develops from tomorrow into the weekend, followed by a strong storm that will bring heavy rain and strong winds for later Sunday and Sunday night. Rain then ends as a period of snow early Monday morning.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
210 PM Update...
Minor mid-level short wave will continue to exit the region tonight with light snow lifting east of our area and diminishing. We lose ice crystallization in the dendrite zone on the KUCA Bufkit sounding this evening and have included a mention of patchy freezing drizzle for a few hours in the Western Mohawk Valley as this looks to be the area that will hold onto moisture and marginal lift the longest
Elsewhere
upper ridging will promote subsidence along with some dry advection as seen in WV satellite imagery. Low clouds will be stubborn to diminish until the 850 mb ridge passes late tonight and stronger warming and diurnal effects kick in on Friday. Dry and mild conditions will round out this part of the forecast with high temps tomorrow surging into the 40s. Partial sunshine is also expected to return.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
330 PM Update
This period starts off quiet, with mild and dry weather expected on Saturday. High temperatures look to surge into the 50s under partly sunny skies. A southerly breeze between 8 to 15 mph will be responsible for transporting these warm temperatures northward into our forecast area. This will be out ahead of a developing, strong mid-latitude cyclone that will impact our area late Saturday night through Monday. Much more on this system below.
The main impacts from this strong system look to be heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and a possible freeze up as precipitation changes over to snow Sunday night into the day on Monday.
Confidence is increasing in higher QPF amounts with today's model guidance, and also the further east track of the low...which will allow colder air to work into the area Sunday night...changing the rain over to snow during the evening west of I-81 and after midnight east of I-81...with the higher elevations changing over first.
Rain develops over the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier late Saturday night as southerly winds also increase between 15-25 mph...especially over the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts will only be up to a quarter inch over that area, before daybreak Sunday morning...with current guidance bringing the rain east to around the I-81 corridor by daybreak. It remains warm overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s excepted.
Central NY and Northeast PA remains in the warm, moist southerly flow out ahead of the deepening low pressure system during the day on Sunday. A large upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and begins to take on a slight negative tilt. Model guidance continues to show a wavy, elongated area of low pressure developing along a sharp cold frontal boundary...
currently this wave of low pressure is forecast to track near, then just southeast of our forecast area by Sunday night. Again this system has the potential to bring a multitude of hazards and impacts to the region. Storm total precipitation amounts are progged to range from 1.5 to 3
5 inches over the region
and this could certainly cause some flooding issues...anything from poor drainage flooding, ponding of water in low lying areas and large rises on area streams and rivers. There is the potential for some main stem and headwater river points to reach action stage, minor flood stage or perhaps even higher. The exact rainfall amounts and any flooding potential will become more clear as we get closer in time to this event. The instability looks too limited for any strong to severe thunderstorms with minimal CAPE but enough to where some thunder is possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty convective showers are not out of the question though.
The other concern will be gusty southerly winds, with peak gusts of 30-40 mph over the higher elevations Sunday into Sunday night...then winds turn west-northwest on Monday with similar wind speeds expected. There is also fairly good model agreement this far out in time for the rain to change over to wet snow from west to east, and from hilltops to valleys starting late Sunday evening over Steuben county, reaching the I-81 corridor after midnight and finally changing over for the southern Catskills and Wyoming Valley during the predawn hours Monday.
There definitely remains some uncertainty in these changeover times as it will depend on the ultimate track of the low and extent of the cold air. Current ensemble guidance, including the NBM are showing 40-60%, with locally up to 80% (hilltops)
probabilities for > 3 inches of snow over Central NY in the Sunday night to Monday timeframe...probabilities are are in the 15-30% range (50% hilltops) across NE PA for 3 inches or more of heavy wet snowfall.
Temperatures remain well above average on Sunday, rising well into the 50s as pwats also reach 1 to 1.25 inches and dewpoints surge into the 50s. Temperatures are rather slow to cool Sunday night, but do eventually back into the 30s and around or below freezing in most locations before daybreak Monday. This, combined with the potential for wet snow could certainly cause untreated surfaces to becoming snow covered and slick.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
340 PM Update
This long term period starts off active, with lingering lake enhanced/effect snow showers Monday into Monday night, along with much colder temperatures and gusty northwest winds.
Behind the sharp cold front early Monday morning should be a drop in temperatures to around or just below freezing.
Anafrontal precipitation is modeled across the region allowing rain to change to a quick thump of moderate to heavy snow for a good portion of central New York and NE PA early Monday morning.
The exact track of the surface lows generating the anafrontal precipitation will determine how long and how much snow will occur. For now, a few hours of snowfall with some light accumulations do look possible as the stratiform snow quickly transitions to lake effect snow showers by mid to late morning on Monday. Temperatures should hover around or just above freezing Monday afternoon with some lingering light lake effect snow showers. While a flash freeze is unlikely given that temperatures look to only drop to around freezing, untreated surfaces could still gradually freeze up, becoming icy and slippery through the day. Northwest winds between 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph area expected in the strong cold air advection and well mixed atmosphere during the day on Monday.
Lake effect snow showers continue on a west-northwest flow Monday night as 850mb temperatures fall to around -12C. The lake effect gradually diminished and lifts north heading into the day on Tuesday. A zonal flow on Tuesday leads to partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures rebounding in the 30s to around 40. The weather is looking rather quiet and seasonable for the middle of next week. A weak cold front may tray to slide north to south over the region...and this could spark off a few snow showers across Central NY on Wednesday before high pressure builds in again by next Thursday. Steady temperatures for midweek with highs in the mid-30s to low 40s and overnight lows in the 20s expected.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Light snow with occasional alternate minimum restrictions will continue to affect KSYR-KRME through the afternoon while gradually moving east and weakening with time. West of that line...restrictions in snow should not be an issue, however, anywhere there are currently VFR ceilings at the start of this forecast will become widespread MVFR by 21Z which will continue into tonight. Rapid improvement to VFR cigs above FL050 is expected to occur on Friday as warmer and drier air advects into the Northeast.
Winds generally SW 5-10 kts becoming light and variable tonight.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday night...VFR.
Sunday...Becoming MVFR-IFR with rain developing in the afternoon.
Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Gusty winds.
Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and gusty NW winds.
Tuesday...VFR-MVFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 344 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
Light snow will gradually come to an end by tonight with some lingering lake effect flurries north of the Thruway. A warm up develops from tomorrow into the weekend, followed by a strong storm that will bring heavy rain and strong winds for later Sunday and Sunday night. Rain then ends as a period of snow early Monday morning.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
210 PM Update...
Minor mid-level short wave will continue to exit the region tonight with light snow lifting east of our area and diminishing. We lose ice crystallization in the dendrite zone on the KUCA Bufkit sounding this evening and have included a mention of patchy freezing drizzle for a few hours in the Western Mohawk Valley as this looks to be the area that will hold onto moisture and marginal lift the longest
Elsewhere
upper ridging will promote subsidence along with some dry advection as seen in WV satellite imagery. Low clouds will be stubborn to diminish until the 850 mb ridge passes late tonight and stronger warming and diurnal effects kick in on Friday. Dry and mild conditions will round out this part of the forecast with high temps tomorrow surging into the 40s. Partial sunshine is also expected to return.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
330 PM Update
This period starts off quiet, with mild and dry weather expected on Saturday. High temperatures look to surge into the 50s under partly sunny skies. A southerly breeze between 8 to 15 mph will be responsible for transporting these warm temperatures northward into our forecast area. This will be out ahead of a developing, strong mid-latitude cyclone that will impact our area late Saturday night through Monday. Much more on this system below.
The main impacts from this strong system look to be heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and a possible freeze up as precipitation changes over to snow Sunday night into the day on Monday.
Confidence is increasing in higher QPF amounts with today's model guidance, and also the further east track of the low...which will allow colder air to work into the area Sunday night...changing the rain over to snow during the evening west of I-81 and after midnight east of I-81...with the higher elevations changing over first.
Rain develops over the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier late Saturday night as southerly winds also increase between 15-25 mph...especially over the higher terrain. Rainfall amounts will only be up to a quarter inch over that area, before daybreak Sunday morning...with current guidance bringing the rain east to around the I-81 corridor by daybreak. It remains warm overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s excepted.
Central NY and Northeast PA remains in the warm, moist southerly flow out ahead of the deepening low pressure system during the day on Sunday. A large upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and begins to take on a slight negative tilt. Model guidance continues to show a wavy, elongated area of low pressure developing along a sharp cold frontal boundary...
currently this wave of low pressure is forecast to track near, then just southeast of our forecast area by Sunday night. Again this system has the potential to bring a multitude of hazards and impacts to the region. Storm total precipitation amounts are progged to range from 1.5 to 3
5 inches over the region
and this could certainly cause some flooding issues...anything from poor drainage flooding, ponding of water in low lying areas and large rises on area streams and rivers. There is the potential for some main stem and headwater river points to reach action stage, minor flood stage or perhaps even higher. The exact rainfall amounts and any flooding potential will become more clear as we get closer in time to this event. The instability looks too limited for any strong to severe thunderstorms with minimal CAPE but enough to where some thunder is possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty convective showers are not out of the question though.
The other concern will be gusty southerly winds, with peak gusts of 30-40 mph over the higher elevations Sunday into Sunday night...then winds turn west-northwest on Monday with similar wind speeds expected. There is also fairly good model agreement this far out in time for the rain to change over to wet snow from west to east, and from hilltops to valleys starting late Sunday evening over Steuben county, reaching the I-81 corridor after midnight and finally changing over for the southern Catskills and Wyoming Valley during the predawn hours Monday.
There definitely remains some uncertainty in these changeover times as it will depend on the ultimate track of the low and extent of the cold air. Current ensemble guidance, including the NBM are showing 40-60%, with locally up to 80% (hilltops)
probabilities for > 3 inches of snow over Central NY in the Sunday night to Monday timeframe...probabilities are are in the 15-30% range (50% hilltops) across NE PA for 3 inches or more of heavy wet snowfall.
Temperatures remain well above average on Sunday, rising well into the 50s as pwats also reach 1 to 1.25 inches and dewpoints surge into the 50s. Temperatures are rather slow to cool Sunday night, but do eventually back into the 30s and around or below freezing in most locations before daybreak Monday. This, combined with the potential for wet snow could certainly cause untreated surfaces to becoming snow covered and slick.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
340 PM Update
This long term period starts off active, with lingering lake enhanced/effect snow showers Monday into Monday night, along with much colder temperatures and gusty northwest winds.
Behind the sharp cold front early Monday morning should be a drop in temperatures to around or just below freezing.
Anafrontal precipitation is modeled across the region allowing rain to change to a quick thump of moderate to heavy snow for a good portion of central New York and NE PA early Monday morning.
The exact track of the surface lows generating the anafrontal precipitation will determine how long and how much snow will occur. For now, a few hours of snowfall with some light accumulations do look possible as the stratiform snow quickly transitions to lake effect snow showers by mid to late morning on Monday. Temperatures should hover around or just above freezing Monday afternoon with some lingering light lake effect snow showers. While a flash freeze is unlikely given that temperatures look to only drop to around freezing, untreated surfaces could still gradually freeze up, becoming icy and slippery through the day. Northwest winds between 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph area expected in the strong cold air advection and well mixed atmosphere during the day on Monday.
Lake effect snow showers continue on a west-northwest flow Monday night as 850mb temperatures fall to around -12C. The lake effect gradually diminished and lifts north heading into the day on Tuesday. A zonal flow on Tuesday leads to partly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures rebounding in the 30s to around 40. The weather is looking rather quiet and seasonable for the middle of next week. A weak cold front may tray to slide north to south over the region...and this could spark off a few snow showers across Central NY on Wednesday before high pressure builds in again by next Thursday. Steady temperatures for midweek with highs in the mid-30s to low 40s and overnight lows in the 20s expected.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Light snow with occasional alternate minimum restrictions will continue to affect KSYR-KRME through the afternoon while gradually moving east and weakening with time. West of that line...restrictions in snow should not be an issue, however, anywhere there are currently VFR ceilings at the start of this forecast will become widespread MVFR by 21Z which will continue into tonight. Rapid improvement to VFR cigs above FL050 is expected to occur on Friday as warmer and drier air advects into the Northeast.
Winds generally SW 5-10 kts becoming light and variable tonight.
Outlook...
Friday night through Saturday night...VFR.
Sunday...Becoming MVFR-IFR with rain developing in the afternoon.
Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Gusty winds.
Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and gusty NW winds.
Tuesday...VFR-MVFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY | 77 mi | 78 min | 0 | 31°F | 29.92 | 24°F | ||
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 93 mi | 54 min | S 8G | 34°F | 29.83 | 32°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from RME
(wind in knots)New Baltimore
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST 0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM EST 4.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:24 PM EST 0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EST 0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM EST 4.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:24 PM EST 0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4 |
| 1 am |
| 3.3 |
| 2 am |
| 2.5 |
| 3 am |
| 1.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 2.9 |
| 10 am |
| 3.6 |
| 11 am |
| 4.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.8 |
Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:25 AM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EST -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM EST 4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EST 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Albany, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 4.2 |
| 1 am |
| 3.9 |
| 2 am |
| 3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 3 |
| 11 am |
| 3.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 4.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 4 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.5 |
Albany, NY,
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