Mount Morris, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Morris, NY

June 14, 2024 7:08 PM EDT (23:08 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM
Moonrise 12:34 PM   Moonset 12:33 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1024 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

This afternoon - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday night - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Monday and Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 63 degrees, and the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 57 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Morris, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 142121 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 521 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front could touch off a shower or two across the North Country through the early evening hours, otherwise high pressure moving in from the Upper Great Lakes will supply us with fantastic weather for the weekend. Oppressive heat and humidity will then DOMINATE our weather next week with dangerously high apparent temperatures, peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Delightful weather with a mix of sun and clouds through early evening, although a weak cold front sagging south from the Ottawa Valley will support a few passing showers across the North country, with the outside chance for an isolated thunderstorm.

Tonight, expansive high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes will slowly drift to the southeast towards our region. While some clouds wil be found across the North Country to start, this scenario will promote moonlit skies tonight with temperatures dipping to below normal levels. Mins will range from the mid 50s in most areas to the mid and upper 40s across much of the Southern Tier and also across Lewis County.

The large area of high pressure will move directly over our region Saturday and Saturday night. This will support mainly clear skies, although it will be on the cool side of normal with Saturday afternoon temperatures only in the 60s to near 70. Mins Saturday night will be lower than to those of tonight for much of the area.

Enjoy this pleasant weather that will be in place through this weekend, before dangerously oppressive heat and humidity takes hold for much of next week.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Broad mid-level ridging centered across the Great Lakes Sunday will continue its eastward progression into the eastern Great Lakes through Monday. Meanwhile within the ridging, a shortwave trough will ride the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday well to the north of the region. While this shortwave trough indicates some active weather Sunday night through Monday, its placement well to the north should keep any activity outside of the area. This being said, have slight chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon.

Outside of this, deep southerly flow will advect in warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico initiating the heat wave for the middle portion of the week. Highs Sunday will topple off in the low to mid 70s across the North Country and upper 70s to low 80s elsewhere. Monday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s across most of the region, however across the climatologically warmer places in the Genesee Valley a few low to mid 90 readings will be possible. These 90 degree readings along with the humidity will create heat index values to range in the mid to upper 90s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dangerous Heat Wave To Impact The Region Next Week

A very strong 500mb ridge will anchor itself across much of the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic through much of the week, which will dominate the sensible weather across the eastern Great Lakes.
NAEFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate this ridge will be of anomalous strength with 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures in the 99th percentile, if not exceeding the maximum climatological values for the Northeast through Thursday. Deep anticyclonic flow around the resultant Bermuda High will cause hot, humid air to surge across the eastern CONUS. Given the strong signal from nearly all available long range guidance packages, confidence is high in a prolonged stretch of oppressive summer heat and humidity lasting through much of the week.

Not much change to previous forecast packages with daytime highs solidly in 90s Tuesday through Thursday. Highest temps will be in the interior valleys, while cooler temps will be found immediately along the lakeshores and immediately northeast of both lakes (including Downtown Buffalo) as a persistent southwest flow advects cooler marine air off the lakes. Tuesday and Wednesday still seem like the peak days of excessive heat and humidity with low 100s possible in interior valleys. This heat comes as dewpoints climb into the low 70s, which will cause overall heat indicies in the afternoon to climb into the mid 90s to lower 100s.

An upper level trough over south-central Canada will move east through the end of the week. The approaching trough will begin to suppress the strong ridge over the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night. Based on the NAEFS, 850mb temperatures will begin to fall into the upper teens Thursday through Friday, HOWEVER this may only result in a few degrees difference from Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing the heat wave across the forecast area. For context, daytime highs average the upper 70s for Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown during the days of June 18-21.

Little relief is expected overnight with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Otherwise...The primary forecast uncertainty through much of next week continues to be the potential for convection. Daytime surface based instability will be present each afternoon with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and low 70s although the strong ridge should preclude much of the diurnal convective potential with strong capping expected to be in place. Given the low confidence in shower and storm timing and coverage, PoPs values remain on the low side (15-30%) through Thursday.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
While a weak secondary cold front could touch off a shower across the North Country through the early evening hours, dry weather with widespread VFR conditions and generally light winds can be expected through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

MARINE
Westerly winds behind a cold front will generally remain below 15 knots through early evening, before veering more northerly tonight.
Conditions will remain below headline criteria through the weekend, although there may be brief periods with some light to moderate chop, especially on Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 39 mi69 min 69°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 40 mi69 minNW 15G18 68°F 29.94


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDSV DANSVILLE MUNI,NY 14 sm14 minNNW 12G2010 smClear75°F52°F44%29.92
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Wind History graph: DSV
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Tide / Current for
   
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Buffalo, NY,




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