Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Morris, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
...Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather This Afternoon and Early Evening...

Concern for this period remains the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, as a cold front approaches the region from the Upper Great Lakes. The evolution of this potential remains problematic, as a lead shortwave and pre-frontal trough enters the region later this morning. This will bring an initial round of convection, though this will not be the main event, the potential does exist for robust convection with elevated shear values, bringing at least some risk of severe weather. Convective debris will likely limit the degree of diurnally instability during the afternoon. Nonetheless, a second round of convection will develop along the cold front as it moves through the region, in the general 21z-03z time frame.

Moderate instability should be in place ahead of the front along with strong shear profiles. Southwest flow lake shadowing from Buffalo to Rochester should keep the greatest risk for severe weather to areas south and east of this axis. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained an Enhanced risk (30% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of any point, with lesser risks for severe hail 15- 29% and tornadoes 5-9%) for severe weather for much of the area. The exception is a sliver across the Niagara Frontier and North Country where a Slight Risk for severe weather is place.

Otherwise, it will become quite breezy today with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph for most areas, and as high as 40 mph for the Niagara Frontier. It will on the warmer side of normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

In the wake of the frontal passage this evening, conditions will quickly improve with partial clearing during the overnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure will bring fair weather this period. Freezing temperatures are possible east of Lake Ontario with early evening radiational cooling conditions...but increasing clouds across WNY will slow overnight cooling.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The next system of note will be Thursday as the recently passed frontal boundary returns northward as a warm front, with additional Gulf moisture Thursday and Thursday night to produce showers and thunderstorms, of which some may be locally heavy. Pwat values behind the warm front increase to 1.25 to 1.50 inches, with the +2SD anomalies over our region Thursday night. This along with convergence ahead of a Thursday night 45 knot LLJ may allow for locally heavy rainfall.

The cold front will pass across our region Friday, with thunderstorms focused upon our eastern zones where better daytime instability will be found. Scattered showers linger Friday night through Saturday night with the passage of the mid level trough.

Still weak cyclonic flow Sunday to allow for plenty of diurnal cumulus clouds. An upper level ridge will build over the region Monday, though there are hints that a cut off low and Atlantic moisture to our south may develop...which would lend to a more pessimistic forecast.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will be in place today...although there will be an increasing risk for strong thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. The threat of convection will come in two waves, the first being during the midday and early afternoon...and the second coming during the late afternoon and early evening. Short lived MVFR conditions along with potential wind gusts over 50 knots will accompany the stronger storms.

In the wake of the convection...any MVFR cigs will lift and give way to at least partial clearing late.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with showers developing.
Slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday.. MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with scattered morning showers.

MARINE
South to southwesterly winds will increase this morning as the pressure gradient increases over the area out ahead of an approaching trough and strong cold front. Winds will be strong enough to reach SCA levels through tonight.

The Saint Lawrence River may increase to over 20 knots for a time this afternoon and remain elevated into this evening, with some chance that a small craft headline may be needed.

High pressure crossing the region on Wednesday will bring the return to lighter winds and lower wave heights from Wednesday morning through at least Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043>045.