Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wanakah, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak low pressure tracking across southern Quebec will push a cold front across the region through this evening. The warm and moist air mass ahead of this front will result in limited instability around 500 J/Kg. This will support some showers and thunderstorms both ahead of and along the frontal boundary this afternoon. Showers and storms will taper off this evening, although a few showers can't be ruled out across the North Country tonight.

A strong 50+ knot low level jet will remain in place across the region this afternoon. This may support a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and brief heavy downpours, despite the relatively low storm tops. SPC has much of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, with a Slight Risk just clipping a small part of the Western Southern Tier.

Outside of the showers and storms, this afternoon will be breezy with gusts 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures will remain above normal ahead of the cold front, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The moisture streaming across an icy cold Lake Erie will result in locally dense fog along the immediate lakeshore until the front crosses the area late this afternoon and evening. There will be dense fog in downtown Buffalo and along I-90 from Ripley to Buffalo at times through 8 p.m.

High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Sunday, with associated dry air and subsidence bringing a return to sunshine.
Temperatures will be cooler than today, but not far from average for the third week in April.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Mid-level ridge axis centered across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night will continue to travel east Monday. Meanwhile the next trough across the Central Plains will lift northeast towards and across the upper Great Lakes Monday and into southern Ontario and Quebec by Tuesday. After initial dry weather Sunday night, associated low pressure over Iowa late Sunday night will lift northeast across the upper Great Lakes Monday and into southern Ontario and Quebec Monday night into Tuesday morning, resulting in a pair of frontal boundaries to pass across the region Monday into Tuesday morning. As such, expect the next round of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms to spread from west to east Monday.

The aforementioned trough axis will pull east across the area Tuesday, with surface high pressure building in across the central and eastern Great Lakes. This being said, by Tuesday morning the bulk of the shower activity associated with the frontal passage will be to the east of the forecast area. Though dry, it will be breezy Tuesday with westerly gusts up to 40mph at times. Additionally, in the wake of the front cooler temperatures will advect in across the region, dropping day time highs back towards normal for mid to late April.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Zonal flow will set up across the central and eastern Great Lakes Wednesday through Saturday. However, a weak shortwave will ripple through Thursday with a more potent trough to begin to develop upstream across the upper Great Lakes late in the week/early weekend. As such, expect mainly dry weather Wednesday and Thursday with a slight chance for a few showers with the shortwave passage Thursday. Then, with the aforementioned developing trough across the upper Great Lakes, timing and strength of this feature continues to remain uncertain. This being said, didn't stray from the NBM (National Blend of Models) for Friday through the start of the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
There remains a risk for showers and scattered thunderstorms over Wester NY through late afternoon. The chances of thunderstorms moving across TAF sites is generally low, with more widespread storms across the Western Southern Tier. Showers will lower vsby/cigs to MVFR at times, otherwise it'll mainly be VFR with patchy MVFR cigs this afternoon.

The one notable exception is KBUF since there remains dense fog nearby across Lake Erie. This may drift across the airfield at times through 22Z with a risk of vsby below 1/2SM and LIFR cigs during this time. Very subtle, and confidence in this is low.

Otherwise, high pressure will build towards the region tonight, with VFR flight conditions late tonight developing and lasting through the day Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night...VFR.

Monday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely, chance of a few thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes later this afternoon.
Moderate southwest winds ahead of the front will become westerly later today. This will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will become northwest tonight and gradually diminish, bringing an end to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Sunday morning will still be choppy on Lake Ontario with elevated northwest winds. High pressure will then build into the lower Great Lakes in the afternoon, with subsiding winds and waves.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-019- 085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ020- 040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SLZ022-024.