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LEZ041 Expires:202312082215;;113543 Fzus51 Kbuf 081424 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 924 am est Fri dec 8 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-082215- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 924 am est Fri dec 8 2023
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 090349 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1049 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Dry tonight with very mild weather continuing into Saturday, as afternoon temperatures soar well into the 50s across much of the area. A low pressure system will then cross the upper Great Lakes Saturday afternoon on its way to near James Bay Saturday night, with a wavy cold front slowly crossing the region Sunday bringing a period of soaking rainfall to the area for the second half of the weekend. Colder air wraps in behind the front with rain changing to an accumulating wet snow Sunday night, especially across the higher terrain, that will last into the start of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery continues to show low level clouds across all of western and northcentral NY, while upper level cirrus stream in overtop. Meanwhile, frontal boundary remains stalled across northern NY with a fairly sharp temperature contrast continuing to be observed across the boundary with temperatures across the state ranging from the upper 20s across far northern NY to the mid 50s along the Lake Erie shoreline.

The surface high will slide off the New England coast overnight, while the mid level ridge axis slowly moves east over eastern NY/western New England by early Saturday morning. A shortwave will also pass by to the northwest of the area, helping to keep cloud cover in place, however dry conditions will prevail. A warm southerly low level return flow will persist tonight. This, in addition to cloud cover will result in a mild night with lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s across the interior higher terrain to the low and mid 40s elsewhere.

A mainly dry Saturday on tap as a mid level trough over the central CONUS slowly progresses eastward while spawning an area of strengthening surface low pressure that will move northeast through the upper Great Lakes Saturday afternoon, as its wavy trailing cold front moves into the central Great Lakes. Strengthening warm air advection will finally force the stalled boundary across northern NY a bit further north. This will allow our area to become firmly entrenched in the warm sector, with some breaks of sun possible midday/afternoon hours (especially across western NY downslope areas), before clouds start to thicken and lower from west to east late Saturday into Saturday evening ahead of the approaching cold front. With this in mind have raised high temps some five degrees or so, which still may not be enough, especially if more sunshine is realized. Expect highs to surge well into the 50s for much of the area with 60 or even some low 60s across a few of the warmer spots in western NY. Meanwhile, although still well above normal, temps will struggle to reach 50 across the Tug Hill and western Dacks.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A very active Saturday night into Monday period is still expected.
The approach of an amplifying upper trough and slow moving cold front will result in a widespread soaking rainfall Saturday night and Sunday as both Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico moisture are advected northward. Colder air spreading in behind the cold front late Sunday into Monday morning will bring a transition to some accumulating wet snow. Most areas will only see minor amounts, with the potential for higher amounts across higher terrain.

Model trends continuing to suggest an arrival time of the rain into western New York Saturday evening, reaching north central New York by late evening or near midnight. Deep southerly flow ahead of the system will keep overnight temperatures mild, with most areas only dropping into the mid to upper 40s. This will be close to 20 degrees above normal minimum temperatures.

Cold front eases across the area Sunday and Sunday night as several waves of low pressure ride along it. With the front still to our west Sunday morning, temperatures will start out mild. The period of heaviest rain should be during the first half or so of Sunday as strong frontogenetic forcing will occur along and just ahead of the front. Would not completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder with some elevated instability present. Strong 50+ knot low level jet overhead could bring the potential for a localized higher wind gust if any convective elements do develop. Most areas will see rainfall amounts of three-quarters to an inch, but areas on the Tug Hill may see up to 1.25 inches or more of rainfall boosted by upslope flow.
Latest MMEFS of the GEFS and NAEFS continues to highlight only the Black River in the North Country as possibly rising to action stage, and this would not be until later in the week as this river is a slow riser.

Colder air will start to make its way into the region as the cold front eases into central and eastern New York late Sunday and Sunday night. Thermal profiles suggest a fairly sharp transition over to wet snow from west to east (first occurring for higher terrain). Most areas will see at least some wet snow accumulation by Monday morning. Lower elevations likely less than 2 inches with higher terrain having a better potential to see higher amounts. Temperatures by Monday morning should be down to near freezing or even below for most of the area. This will bring the potential for slick conditions for the Monday morning commute as residual moisture could freeze up on untreated roads along with the minor wet snow accumulation.

The wet snow on the backside of the system will exit fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. Does look like a seasonally cool day with a blustery NW wind within a tight surface pressure gradient. Even though winds will gust potentially to 35 mph, the wet snow will have little blowing and drifting.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the long term period the weather overall looks quieter than normal compared to mid December standards. POPs were limited to chance, as most of the period is uncertain among all guidance with minimal agreement on timing and intensity of any precip potential.
Current potential for passing cold front late Tuesday with some showers, both rain and snow. Behind the passing front there will be at least a chance for lake effect snow showers, especially southeast of Lake Ontario for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Guidance is hinting at a shortwave trough passing just north of the area Thursday morning, mainly increasing precip potential for the North Country, but also possibly extending the lake response southeast of Lake Ontario. Still too much uncertainty with this as well though, so keeping at chance POPs for now.

Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal. A quick passing ridge for Friday will bring warm air advection with temperatures aloft warming to around 5- 7C, which will increase the potential for well above normal temperatures for the day.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mainly VFR lower clouds, with some areas of low VFR decks, continue across all of western and northcentral NY late this evening. Mainly low VFR CIGS expected through the overnight, with some marginal MVFR CIGS possible at times across the higher terrain (KJHW).

Mainly low VFR CIGS expected will dominate through the first half of Saturday, with CIGS possibly lifting some or even scattering out for a bit in a few spots (especially across western NY) Saturday afternoon, before thickening and lowering again from west to east across the area late Saturday into Saturday evening.

Looking a bit beyond this 00Z TAF cycle for planning purposes, LLWS will be a possibility Saturday night as strong LLJ moves overhead, along with flight conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
South/south-southeasterly flow will freshen some tonight into Saturday, however conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the first half of the weekend. Only exception will be across the far eastern end of Lake Ontario from late Saturday through the first half Sunday when the persistent south/south- southeasterly flow may become strong enough to support a low end Small Craft Advisory there.

Otherwise, a low pressure system passing across the central Great Lakes into southern Canada will support the next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night through Monday as cold air advects across the lower Great Lakes in its wake. Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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