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FXUS63 KFSD 021740 AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1140 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- A low (< 30%) chance of light snow exists for late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night along and east of Iowa/Minnesota Highway 60. Any accumulations have a high (80%) chance of being minimal, less than a half inch.

- Expect near to warmer than normal temperatures for the next week.
High confidence (>80%) in well above average temperatures for next Thursday and medium confidence (50-80%) for above average temperatures Wednesday and Friday.

- Very small chances (10-20%) of light snow Monday into Monday night north of I-90 and likely north of highway 14. Otherwise dry weather is expected to prevail throughout the period.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

A quiet day for most today as a system moves by to the south. Some patchy light snow and flurries will be possible this afternoon, with the better chances in northeast NE and northwest IA. Amounts will be minimal. This chance for light snow and flurries will linger through about midnight. Impacts are expected to be minor.

Some potential for fog and stratus later Saturday night into Sunday morning, but confidence more on the medium side, so not planning on introducing into the forecast yet. The fog is much more weighted towards the nam members. There is a bit of a lull in the low level wind field in the wake of this weak system, so something to keep an eye on. As much as anything this may play a role in temperature potential on Sunday, mainly not allowing temperatures to warm as efficiently.

Ensembles have held steady on highs for Monday with widespread 40s and a few 50s in south central SD. A thick cloud deck associated with a low pressure system to our north will limit warming potential. Still, highs will be around ten degrees above average for this time of year. This run has trended slightly upward with potential for precipitation from this system. Though the chances are still very low (20-30%) that areas north of I-90 and east of I-29 may see light snow Monday night. As the system moves southeast Tuesday morning it drags a cold front through the area. Behind the front winds become northwesterly and increase to 15 to 20 mph.
Strong CAA will help to boost gusts up to 30 mph. Clouds decrease through the day as we warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

An upper ridge builds in for Wednesday as a surface high passes to our south, turning winds southerly to southwesterly. With the tendency to overperform on temperatures when the winds are in this configuration, along with strong WAA at 925 mb, felt that the NBM temperatures were too low. Went with a 50/50 blend of the NBM and NBM 75th. Highs will be in the upper 40s to 50s with south central SD seeing a few 60s. Thursday, another fast moving low pressure passes to our north in the afternoon. At the surface winds remain southerly to southwesterly for most of the day. Bumped temperatures in the same manner for Thursday: expecting widespread highs in the 50s, with some 60s possible in south central SD. As the low pressure moves to the east, it drags a cold front through Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds turn northwesterly with strong CAA increasing gusts and cooling things slightly for Friday into the mid to upper 40s. Saturday a strong low pressure system coming out of Colorado takes aim at our area, bringing our next chance at widespread precipitation. Highs will be in the low 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

VFR conditions with occasional MVFR conditions are expected this TAF period mostly due to a combination of low-level stratus and some embedded flurries. Taking a look across the area, mostly clear conditions continue across the area with some high level clouds streaming in along the Missouri River. Cloud coverage will begin to increase east of Hwy-81 over the several hours as a shortwave approaches from the west. A few light flurries to snow showers will be possible overnight mostly in portions of northwestern IA.
However, not expecting much more than a few flakes to a dusting in most areas due to the presence of dry air in the lower levels.
Otherwise, breezy southerly to southeasterly winds will decouple overnight possibly bringing some fog to areas along and just west of the I-29 corridor.

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

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