Aurelia, IA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA

April 15, 2024 9:10 PM CDT (02:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM
Moonrise 10:49 AM   Moonset 2:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurelia, IA
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Area Discussion for - Sioux Falls, SD
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FXUS63 KFSD 152350 AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 650 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM tonight.

- High confidence in rainfall arriving tonight and continuing through Wednesday morning. Widespread amounts between 1.0 to 2.5 inches are expected, with isolated pockets of 3+ inches also possible.

- Rainfall rates could exceed 1 inch per hour at times, which may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding in urban and low lying areas.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight and Tuesday afternoon. The greatest threat with the strongest storms will be large hail, but isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- More precipitation chances (30%-70%) return Wednesday night into Thursday mostly south of I-90.

- The breezy conditions will continue along with more seasonal conditions from the midweek into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

CURRENT: Dry and breezy conditions continue across the region, with latest observations showing southeasterly winds gusting between 25 to 35 MPH and temperatures in the 70s. Relative humidity values have plummeted quite a bit this morning, with values largely in the teens to lower 20s. As such, the Red Flag warning remains in good shape and will remain valid until 8 PM.

TONIGHT: Sfc warm front and low pressure lift northeastward across Nebraska this evening, causing showers and storms to return to the forecast. Similar to days past, latest CAMs continue to slow the arrival time ever so slightly, with most supporting initiation along the Missouri River near/shortly after 7 PM. With a stout LLJ overhead, have ample bulk layer shear (40+ kts) to work with in addition to increasing low level moisture. However, latest soundings still show a decent cap in place, suggesting that most if not all of these storms will remain elevated in nature. Near 03Z, should see MLCAPE approach 1000-1500 J/kg along the MO River Valley, with mid level lapse rates between 7.5-8 degC/km, and DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg. Thus, as highlighted in SPC's Latest Day 1 Outlook, expect large hail (2+) to be the primary hazard initially - especially in the Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5). As storms grow further upscale, upper level forcing begins to wane, so would expect hail size to lessen to the size of ping pong balls or smaller. Damaging winds in excess of 50+ MPH and an isolated tornado or two also remain possible. Given that these storms look to take place during the evening and overnight period, we strongly encourage you to have a way to receive warnings in the event that storms become severe!

TUESDAY: Widespread rain chances (>80%) are expected heading into Tuesday and the aforementioned sfc low moves over NE/SD border.
Easterly winds are expected to remain breezy during this time, especially along and east of the James River, with gusts between 30 to 45 MPH still possible. May even see some locations east of I-29 approach 50 MPH at times as the SPG tightens overhead. For now, have opted to forgo any wind headlines. Will allow the coming shifts to evaluate model trends and issue as necessary - so continue to monitor for updates. Sfc low pressure moves overhead by Tuesday afternoon, resulting in some lulls in precipitation thanks to the dry-slot. While tomorrow's severe weather threat remains highly conditional on if we can destabilize again after the morning convection - latest CAMs do show another line of convection across NW Iowa and SW Minnesota during the afternoon as the triple point lifts over the SD/IA border. With the current dynamics in place, would expected elevated hailers to be the primary hazard again, with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes being a secondary threat.

Lastly, in regard to rainfall totals, expect widespread amounts between 1 to 2.5 inches across our area, with isolated pockets of 3+ inches also possible. WPC's latest Day 1 Outlook has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) to portions of our area, mainly along and north of the MO River Valley to I-90. As such, could see rainfall rates exceed 1 inch per hour at times, which may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding in urban and low lying areas. Ponding would be expected in areas elsewhere. River rises are also expected with locations most at risk of approaching flood stage being smaller streams/creeks and the upper Little Sioux River between Milford and Spencer.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: Heading into the extended period, any lingering precipitation chances will continue to push to the northeast with the surface low by Wednesday morning. Quieter conditions will temporarily return from the late morning onwards as a mid- level ridge moves into the region. However, northwesterly surface winds will increase as the SPG tightens with gusts between 30-40 mph expected. This along with lingering cold air advection aloft will lead to a slightly cooler conditions compared to the previous day with highs expected to peak in the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s. Otherwise, more precipitation chances (30%-70%) will likely return from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a weak mid-level wave interacts with a developing surface low over Nebraska and Kansas. While the better rain chances will certainly be south of I-90, most ensemble guidance continues to show the highest confidence (50%-80%) along and south of the Hwy-18 corridor with at least a tenth of QPF or greater expected at time.
Nonetheless, the precipitation chances will likely continue into the early afternoon hours on Thursday before pushing southeastwards with the cold front.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY: Looking into the start of the weekend, much quieter conditions return as broad troughing continues to progress across the northern plains. Northwesterly surface flow along with lingering cold air advection (CAA) aloft will continue to gradually decrease our overall temperatures through Saturday with daily highs sitting in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Things could potentially begin to trend warmer from Saturday night onwards as a surface high builds in behind a departing shortwave. A switch to southerly flow along with increased warm air advection (WAA) aloft will lead to a gradual increase in temperatures with highs gradually increasing from the mid to upper 50s on Sunday to the low to mid 60s by Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mainly clear skies begin the TAF period. Thunderstorms have developed across north central Nebraska. These storms will continue to move off to the northwest and will avoid all TAF sites let alone the entire area. The low level jet (LLJ) will strengthen this evening, creating low level wind shear (LLWS) at all TAF sites. The LLWS will be short lived though, only lasting through the evening hours as new thunderstorms look to develop along the Missouri River Valley and push northwards. Winds will remain out of the southeast with gusts as high as 35-40 knots expected to prevail through the evening and overnight hours.

As showers and storms look to reach all TAF sites around midnight.
Ceilings will remain at VFR levels at first but will lower to MVFR/IFR levels by tomorrow morning. The showers and storms will continue across the entire area through the morning hours before some partial clearing returns to the area mainly east of I-29.
Showers persist west of the interstate. There could be renewed thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon but too uncertain to put in a TAF as of now. Otherwise the showers will end the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Red Flag conditions continue across the region, with latest observations showing temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with southeasterly winds gusting between 35 to 45 MPH. Relative humidity values as a result have plummeted into the teens to lower 20s. Thus, believe the current headline remain in good shape and will remain valid until 8 PM. We strongly encourage you to exercise caution with any activity that may cause a spark, as fires can spread quickly under these conditions!

FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040- 052>071.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072- 080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KSLB STORM LAKE MUNI,IA 11 sm15 minESE 2010 smClear70°F32°F25%29.76
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