Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurelia, IA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

THROUGH TONIGHT: First area of precipitation is moving into the region early this morning, and slowed things down a couple of hours from the previous forecast. Have seen some automated reports of this starting as rain (based on soundings this might be the case due to some drier air through the DGZ). However, expect rain to be a brief p-type as dew points have lowered into the mid 20s to lower 30s, and we saturate the DGZ. Guidance has continued to trend colder, so lower temps and dew points for the day. Additionally, guidance is also indicating some higher (0.5" or more per hour) snowfall rates in a narrow corridor of better forcing along the MO River Valley into northwestern IA as the wave moves east. With amounts trending slightly higher and further south, along with the potential for higher snowfall rates this morning, expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to the southwest to encompass northeastern NE. Still anticipating the bulk of the accumulations this morning through the early afternoon hours with the initial wave. Some uncertainty in accumulations remains along the MO River Valley due to temperatures.
A degree or two difference will have a impact on whether that area sees more rain or a mix or all snow. After the first wave, the second wave/trough axis (currently across eastern MT/western ND)
swings through south central SD into northern NE. Some areas across portions of SD may see a break in precipitation today between the two waves. Again, some uncertainty in the temperatures with this wave along the MO River Valley where we may remain warm enough for more rain than snow, but temperatures should fall quickly this afternoon/evening as CAA dives into the area. Precipitation should move east and exit the region late this evening. Through the event, not expecting any sleet or freezing rain; p-type should be either rain or snow or a mix of the two.

For accumulations, most of the area should see 1-3 inches, highest in the Winter Weather Advisory. Areas between Sioux Falls and Sioux City stretching southeast into northwestern IA may see locally higher amounts. Looking at the HRRR, which is one of the more bullish models this morning with regards to rates, indicates a low to moderate chance (45% or less) of portions of northwestern IA seeing more than 4 inches through the event. Heavier snowfall rates at times could lead to reduced visibility. If traveling today, be prepared for some winter driving conditions.

Most of the area should see lighter winds today, with the strongest winds across south central SD where winds may gust to 40 mph. Winds remain breezy into tonight; however, should not see much in the way of blowing snow given the wetter snow that is expected. Temperatures today remain in the 30s for most of the area, with some in south central SD possibly warming back up near 40.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Cold surface high pressure along with the upper trough moving east keeps much colder conditions in place Sunday and into Monday, although temperatures begin to moderate Monday with the return of southerly flow. With lows in the teens, expect morning wind chills in the single digits both Sunday and Monday morning.
Highs Sunday in the upper 20s to mid 30s and Monday in the 30s to lower 40s. Dry conditions with breezy afternoons expected. Gusts at times to 30 mph.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Ridging builds across the western CONUS through next week, with us in northwesterly flow through Friday, when ridge axis moves overhead. Although a couple shortwaves/troughs move through, dry conditions prevail. Occasionally breezy with temperatures near to above seasonal averages through the work week - generally highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 546 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Snow, with some rain mixed in this morning toward the MO River Valley and US Hwy 20 corridor, continues to push eastward through the early afternoon. Ceilings and visibility generally MVFR to IFR, with some brief LIFR conditions in heavier snow. As of this discussion, can already see the back edge of this area of precipitation east of KICR toward KABR. The bulk of snow accumulations are expected with this wave through late morning into early afternoon, around 1-3 inches.

Expect a second area of precipitation later this afternoon and evening, with some mix of rain and snow again possible toward the MO River Valley. Tried to time out the breaks in precip based on the latest hi-res guidance, but expect refinements as the next wave approaches. Light snow accumulations expected with this round of precipitation, half an inch or less. Again, MVFR and lower conditions prevail. Ceilings begin to improve behind this area of precipitation, with VFR conditions returning for the end of the period.

Winds today will be somewhat variable in direction. Most of the area will see gusts around or less than 25 knots through the period, with stronger gusts (around 35 knots) this afternoon and evening across south central SD.



FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ061-062- 065>067-069>071.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ098.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ001-002- 012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ013-014.