Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Orford, OR

AVIATION
07/18Z TAFS...An incoming front is bringing a variety of conditions around the region this morning. LIFR conditions along the coast are due to the front bringing low clouds and moderate precipitation. Meanwhile, LIFR conditions in West Side valleys are due to lingering fog and low clouds, which should gradually improve once mixing improves as the front moves father inland. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with high level cloud cover and terrain obscurations ahead of the front. With and behind the front, expect a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions.

Later this evening and overnight, expect lowering conditions across West Side Valleys. At least MVFR conditions are expected, but if enough clearing occurs, conditions could lower to IFR/LIFR in fog/low clouds. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 850 AM PST Sat Dec 7 2024/

DISCUSSION...

Rain is falling along the coast this morning ahead of what WPC is analyzing as the first of two cold fronts. This first front will push inland today with a high(90-100%) chance of precipitation over locations west of the Cascades. Those precipitation chances decreases the farther one moves east of the Cascades. Otherwise, the second front should move onshore later this evening. Snow levels will fall from 9000 feet ahead of the first front down to 4000 feet behind the second front, although snow accumulation will only be an inch or two in the Cascades later this evening.

Read the previous discussion below for more details beyond today.

MARINE
Updated 800 AM PST Saturday, December 07, 2024
A cold front will bring showers, gusty westerly winds and increasing seas today and into early Sunday morning, but conditions will remain below advisory levels. On Sunday morning, steep northwesterly swell will move into area waters. Additionally, an upper ridge will move over the area and bring gusty northerly winds south of Cape Blanco. A Small Craft Advisory is in place through Monday morning to communicate these expected hazardous conditions.

Long period westerly swell could arrive later in the day Monday, but seas look to remain below advisory level from Monday afternoon through Thursday. Active weather could return at the end of the week, bringing gusty winds and fresh swell to all waters. Current long-term models has a 30-60% chance of seas exceeding 12 feet for Friday morning through Sunday. Future guidance will help to solidify a forecast in this period, but some amount of steep to very steep seas look likely. -TAD/BR-y

BEACH HAZARDS
Updated 200 PM PST Friday, December 6, 2024
The arrival of a longer period west swell late Monday into Tuesday could produce a moderate risk of sneaker waves along southern Oregon beaches, particularly as swell peaks on Tuesday morning. The event looks to be marginal, and a Beach Hazard Statement may be necessary over the next day or two.

-DW/BPN

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 AM PST Sat Dec 7 2024/

DISCUSSION...

Overview:

First round of precipitation today/tonight will be followed by riding aloft which will lead to a dry spell through about Tuesday.
Then our attention turns to an active weather pattern midweek through next weekend. During this stretch we will have light to moderate rainfall amounts along and near the coast, and we will see higher elevation snowfall that doesn't appear to be too impactful at this time. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures expected through this forecast with the potential for fog/freezing fog both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Further Details:

Closed low over the Gulf of Alaska is progged to shift southward and eventually push inland around Vancouver Island. This will bring our next round or precipitation through the area later today and tonight. Not expecting impactful rainfall or snowfall during this timeframe. In the wake of this weakening low over Canada, we will be under a ridge of high pressure through Tuesday. The vorticity maxima will pass around early/mid afternoon with the heaviest of the rainfall expected during the afternoon. The probability for 0.25" or more of rainfall along and near the coast is around 40 to 80 percent over a six hour period this afternoon.
However, the probability for 0.50" or greater is 30 percent or less for the same period. Amounts generally should top our around 0.25"-0.50" with a couple isolated areas potentially getting over half an inch. Snow levels are dropping through the day as precipitation is falling; however, not going to see much accumulation as precipitation will be coming to an end once snow levels drop below 5000 feet. Only expecting a few inches of snowfall, and this would be mainly in the Cascades before precipitation ends.

Riding will follow this system and this should allow for areas of fog to develop in westside valleys where rainfall accumulated.
Given the potential for temperatures below freezing, we could see isolated areas of freezing fog which could lead to a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.

The ridge looks to break down Tuesday into Wednesday as another active pattern looks to develop. The peak of this activity could be Saturday with potential impacts across the majority of the area which could include heavy rainfall, higher elevation snowfall, and breezy to gusty winds. This is still a week out so will need to monitor trends.

Lastly, want to mention the fact we will have a couple dry afternoons Monday and Tuesday when minimum RH values could drop down to around 20 percent. This would be mainly for northern California and some areas on the eastside.

-Guerrero

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.