Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port Orford, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:13PM Monday January 20, 2020 9:58 PM PST (05:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:59AMMoonset 1:46PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 803 Pm Pst Mon Jan 20 2020
.gale warning in effect until 4 am pst Tuesday...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from 4 am pst Tuesday through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..S gales 35 kt...easing to 30 kt late tonight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft...building to 10 to 13 ft after midnight. W swell 9 to 11 ft at 16 seconds. Rain.
Tue..SW wind 20 to 25 kt northern portion and S 10 to 20 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. W swell 11 to 12 ft at 16 seconds...building to 15 to 16 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.
Tue night..S wind 15 to 20 kt northern portion and S 10 to 15 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 13 to 15 ft at 14 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Wed..S wind 20 kt except S 10 to 15 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 12 to 13 ft...subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 10 to 20 kt except S 10 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft. Chance of rain.
Thu..S wind 15 to 20 kt northern portion and S 5 to 10 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. W swell 6 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 7 ft. Showers.
Fri..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft... Building to 6 ft after midnight. W swell 9 ft...building to 12 ft.
Sat..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. W swell 10 to 11 ft.
PZZ300 803 Pm Pst Mon Jan 20 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A strong front will bring gales and very steep wind-driven seas tonight followed by very high and very steep long-period swell through Tuesday evening. Another front will move through on Wednesday with gales possible north of cape blanco. The weather pattern will remain active late this week through this weekend with several more fronts moving through. These fronts will likely generate winds and seas at least at small craft advisory levels.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Orford, OR
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location: 42.74, -124.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 210436 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 836 PM PST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION. 8:30 PM RADAR shows the beginnings of the precipitation associated with the front that is coming through tonight into tomorrow. More information with details on everything is in the previous discussion below. This front could bring some heavy rain and snow rates to some areas resulting in a Winter Storm Warning for portions of Southern and Western Siskiyou County and a Winter Weather Advisory down to 3500 feet for the Mt. Shasta City area as well as for the Cascades and some of the Mountain Roads in the Siskiyous. The advisory does not include Interstate 5 at Siskiyou Summit, but it does impact I-5 near Black Butte Summit as well as Highway 89 in California. Please note that this is not the exhaustive list, and a more information is available within the WSWMFR.

No changes have been made to the forecast at this point, which appears to be on track. -Schaaf

AVIATION.

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PST Monday 20 Jan 2020 . Southerly winds will increase and seas will build this evening as a strong front approaches from the west. This front will bring gales and very steep wind-driven seas tonight followed by very high and very steep long- period swell through Tuesday evening. Seas will likely peak near 20 feet at 15 seconds during this time frame with bar conditions becoming very hazardous. Winds and seas may briefly lower Tuesday night, but another front, a warm front, will move through the waters on Wednesday with a period of south winds that could approach gale force again across northern areas. Seas will remain very steep and hazardous due to increasing wind waves combining with existing westerly swell. The weather pattern will remain active late this week through this weekend with several more fronts moving through. These fronts will likely generate winds and seas at least at small craft advisory levels. -Spilde

HIGH SURF. Models are showing significant westerly swell moving in on Tuesday with wave heights peaking at 17-18 feet and a period of 15 seconds. This could result in higher than normal waves running up the beaches with breaking waves in the 20-23 foot range. So, have gone with a high surf advisory, mainly from Brookings northward. High tides on Tuesday are at approximately 8-9 am and 10-11 pm. So, those planning to be at the beaches on Tuesday should be aware of the dangerous surf conditions. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 258 PM PST Mon Jan 20 2020/

SHORT TERM . Low pressure is wrapped up offshore this afternoon, and southerly winds ahead of this low are being observed from the coast to areas east of the Cascades. Winds will ramp up through the night, and we have Wind Advisories out for the Shasta Valley, southern Rogue Valley, and portions of the East Side. South to north forecast pressure gradients have trended higher today, so we added the Rogue Valley Advisory to focus on areas from Phoenix southward. We also bumped up forecast winds along the coast, but since we only expect headlands to reach High Wind criteria (gusts 58mph or higher), we have not issued a High Wind Warning. Inland winds will peak late tonight into early Tuesday morning, lasting the longest east of the Cascades near Summer Lake. Rogue Valley winds can be quite tricky, and this is a marginal case for a Wind Advisory, but with MFR-RDD pressure gradients peaking at -8mb and a moderately strong HRRR surface wind field, we are predicting some areas will see sustained winds of 25 mph tonight and early Tuesday morning.

There will be a quick shot of moderate to heavy precipitation with the front. Midlevel flow is southwesterly, and this favors multiple areas for snow impacts. The southerly component favors Northern California and the Mount Shasta City area in particular, for a period of moderate to heavy snow Tuesday. Snow will start early Tuesday morning, and as the front moves through during the mid- morning hours, snow levels will lower enough to affect areas at 3000 ft to include McCloud. We've adjusted the lower end of the Advisory to include McCloud based on the consensus of latest model data. Additionally, the westerly component to the midlevel wind favors a period of moderate to heavy upslope snows in the Southern Oregon Cascades . and some spillover snow over Highway 97. Snow levels will start at 4000 to 4500 feet and lower to 3000 feet as the front moves through Tuesday morning. We expect the period of heaviest snow to occur between 4am and 10am, and one inch per hour snowfall rates are likely at times.

Showery conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon, and snow will continue to fall but will not be as heavy or steady as the morning. A warm front is expected to move through Wednesday, and snow levels will rise above 6000 feet by Wednesday afternoon. This means more snow for the highest elevations and rain for the middle and lower elevations. Most of the time warm fronts will bring a period of very low clouds and some fog even in the late morning or early afternoon areas to valleys west of the Cascades, so we expect a similarly gloomy day for at least part of Wednesday. After the warm front pushes through, less precipitation overall is expected on Thursday.

LONG TERM . 4 PM Saturday through Tuesday morning . Saturday Evening marks the start to a rainy weekend. A west oriented mid- level jet will set up driving moisture onshore. A mid-level short wave passes through the area near the start of this extended forecast (4 PM Saturday) and a front later on Sunday. On Saturday the disturbance creates strong warm air advection, bringing snow levels up to about 6000 feet across the area. With the front on Sunday, winds shift to the southwest, indicating Mt. Shasta may see an uptick in precipitation. Also, snow levels should drop slightly around 5000- 5500 feet for the area. Currently, snow is not expected to reach Mt. Shasta city, but the NBM, including other model blends, are showing a trend towards a light dusting in this area and other than snow at Crater Lake, this to be the only snow related impacts. Overall, the weekend precipitation should remain rain for all but the highest areas, with no periods appreciable snow accumulations occuring.

After sunday, model continuity begins degrade. The ECMWF and GFS deterministic solutions begin to diverge. The ECMWF deterministic and GEFS-mean show an open wave feature off the coast of British Columbia being the driver to the weather on Monday. Whereas the GFS deterministic develops a surface low instead of just a wave and could be the difference between the start of the week being wet or dry. Either solution does not bring much precipitation and impacts look to be negligible for the start of the week. -miles

AVIATION . For the 21/00Z TAF Cycle . VFR conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon. An incoming front will bring areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys and local IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and rain to the coastal waters this evening, moving onshore tonight with higher terrain becoming obscured in low clouds, rain, and snow from the coast to the Cascades. Snow levels ahead of the front will be 4500- 5000 feet MSL.

Low level wind shear will also be a concern this evening and tonight at KOTH, KRBG, and KMFR until the front moves through. The front will move through KOTH at 10Z, KRBG at 11Z, KMFR at 14Z and KLMT at 16Z.

Behind the front, the lower conditions will continue through the remainder of Tuesday morning, but the precipitation will be showery and snow levels will drop to 3500-4000 feet MSL. Conditions will improve Tuesday afternoon and evening as the showers diminish, but there will still be some MVFR cigs/vsbys around.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ029-030. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ027-028. High Surf Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ021-022. Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday for ORZ026.

CA . Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ080. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 3000 feet in the for CAZ082. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday above 4500 feet in the for CAZ082. Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ081. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 2 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ083.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for PZZ356-376. Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for PZZ350-370.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 0 mi59 min S 27 G 31 53°F 51°F1008.4 hPa (-1.6)
SNTO3 38 mi89 min Calm 46°F 1007 hPa46°F
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 43 mi83 min SE 1.9 G 5.1 51°F1006.4 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR47 mi63 minSE 97.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE54CalmCalmE3SE33E3CalmCalmCalmNE3E3S3W4W5SW4CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSE5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Pacific Ocean, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM PST     3.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:32 AM PST     7.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:58 PM PST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:36 PM PST     5.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.23.63.23.23.74.65.76.77.37.46.75.642.40.9-0-0.4012.33.64.75.35.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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