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FXUS61 KBGM 101543 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1043 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Several waves of low pressure along a frontal boundary will bring periods of rain today. A low pressure across the Carolinas will deepen tonight and move up the east coast with rain changing to snow with increasing wind. High pressure builds into the region temporarily before another cold front brings a reinforcing shot of cold air to end the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

1035 AM Update

12z NAM, NAM 3km and HRRR have shifted slightly east with the precipitation shield during the overnight into Monday morning hours. However, they are now showing a slightly faster changeover to snow; especially over the higher elevations. Total QPF amounts continue to decrease west of I-81 in CNY; but are holding steady in the 1.25 to 2.25 inch range for most areas east of I-81...with the highest totals over the Catskills and Poconos. Snowfall totals remain about the same, with only minor adjustments. Totals were increase a bit over the higher elevations of NE PA as the snow does wrap back around into this area...with 3-6 inches over the higher elevations outside the Wyoming Valley. Therefore, Lackawanna and Luzerne counties were added to the winter weather advisory with this update. Will await the full 12z guidance to see if any other headline adjustments will be needed. The flood watch remains in effect, but for most locations flooding is looking less likely.

Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion below.

Several waves of low pressure will ride northward along a slow moving cold front today. With plenty of lift and moisture several periods of rain are expected throughout the day.
Temperatures should spike ahead of the front into the low 50's for most of the region.

Temperatures though should drop fairly quickly to around freezing once the cold front moves through. A lull in the rainfall is possible this evening before precipitation from the stronger low spreads northward through the region. Elevation depends is still expected with higher elevation locations changing to snow quicker from northwest to southeast across the region. Training of rainfall in spots could still lead to minor, urban and poor drainage flooding in a few locations so the flood watch continues.

Hi-res modeling continues to indicate favorable F-GEN across NE PA into Delaware and Otsego counties for a heavier snow band tonight. This is also where we have the most contrast in elevation from the valley of Scranton to the ridgetops over 1,500 feet in Delaware and Otsego counties. So some of the heavier precipitation looks to be rain this evening in the Wyoming valley and Scranton areas. 7 inches of snow for Otsego and Delaware counties looks highly probable at this point, so upgraded these counties to a winter storm warning. Elsewhere along and east of I-81 enough snow accumulation is forecasted to lead a slick morning commute given snow just wrapping up and temperatures around freezing, so most of this area outside of Scranton is in a winter weather advisory for a few inches.

Steadier snow transitions to Lake Effect snow and snow showers Monday. With a westerly flow northern Onondaga and Oneida counties look to be favored for some light lake effect.
Elsewhere, some instability with CAPE up to 50 J/KG and steep low level lapse rates are modeled. Coupled with strong wind gusts of around 35 mph some snow squalls will be possible on Monday lasting into the early evening. Temperatures look to be steady around freezing Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
3 AM FORECAST...

Lake effect snow showers will continue across areas north of the Southern Tier Monday night. High pressure centered well south of the region will continue the westerly flow across Lakes Erie and Ontario as the main storm system lifts to the NE. 850mb temps between -11 to -12C will provide enough of a air/water temp difference to generate snow showers from the Finger Lakes to Oneida county. Monday evening a weak, diffuse band of snow should set up across northern Onondaga, northern Madison and Oneida counties, dropping an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow. Less than an inch of snow is expected further south to the PA border. Western Steuben could get half an inch of snow off of Lake Erie. Late Monday night the winds shift to the southwest lifting the lake effect into only Oneida County, then out by sunrise.

Warm air advection will set up on Tuesday with a southwest flow.
High temperatures will rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
This will also bring in drier air.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
3 AM FORECAST...

This period will start unsettled and cool but then become dry and warmer late in the week.

Tuesday night a cold front drops southeast into NY with limited moisture. Some mixed showers will be possible in the Finger Lakes to Oneida County. Another cold front drops southeast Wednesday with air cold enough for lake moisture to help the snow showers. The showers will reach into the Susquehanna Region and Catskills during the afternoon. Some of these snow showers could be briefly heavy. High temperatures will be in the 30s.

Lake effect snow continues Wednesday night in CNY before lifting out late at night. Lows will be from the mid teens to the lower 20s.

The cold air remains over the area Thursday as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. The air mass moderates so Friday highs will be in the 40s with continued dry weather. Saturday should remain dry but clouds will keep highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR/MVFR Restrictions forming with clouds and rain throughout the morning. IFR restrictions expected by this afternoon and this evening continuing through the night. Rain changes to snow during the evening, 00-03Z roughly for KELM and KITH with a 03-06Z changeover for KBGM and KRME. Changeover looks more delayed at KAVP.

LLWS from a strong LLJ should subside by mid-morning as surface winds increase. Southerly winds becoming westerly this afternoon as well, wind gusts increase tonight to around 20 knots by daybreak Monday.

Outlook...

Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and strong gusty NW winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044- 047-048-072.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ009-018-036-037.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ044-045-056.
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-056-057- 062.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ046-057.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ062.

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Sun -- 02:30 PM EST     Moonset
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