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LOZ044 Expires:202312111030;;259485 Fzus51 Kbuf 110218 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 918 pm est Sun dec 10 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-111030- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 918 pm est Sun dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers late this evening, then rain likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 111752 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1252 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect showers will stream into the Twin Tiers off of Lake Ontario and Erie into the overnight hours. High pressure builds in late tonight, cutting off the lake effect showers and bringing warmer, dry conditions for Tuesday. Another cold front comes through Wednesday with additional chances for lake effect snow showers. High pressure and warmer temperatures build into the region later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
1230 PM Update...

Adjusted PoPs through the overnight hours based on the latest high res guidance available. The goal was to try and pin down the areas with the best chance for snow bands to move through.
The current NW flow will slowly shift westerly as a high moves eastward south of our CWA, with all snow diminishing by the early morning hours.

10AM Update...

The Winter Storm Warning and Advisories were cancelled as snow has moved out of the region. The Winter Weather Advisory for Onondaga, Madison and Oneida remains in effect until 7PM tonight as lake effect showers have started to stream across this region. PoPs and QPF were updated based on the latest high- res model guidance, but much of the original forecast remains the same. Higher elevations of the Tug Hill and south of the Mohawk Valley could see an additional 2 inches of snow, with the surrounding, low lying areas getting up to an inch.
Temperatures have climbed above freezing for most of the area, so if snow does fall, it is not expected to stick. Temperatures will fall below freezing across the area late this afternoon, allowing some accumulation to take place. Lake effect showers should slide north and taper off during the overnight hours as high pressure works its way in from the west and turns the flow more SWerly.

630 AM Update...

With the sunrise update, added the mention of some drizzle and freezing drizzle till mid morning. Temperatures around freezing expected for the next few hours. Also, given hourly observations and the HRRR soundings show this potential. Previous discussion below.

Still one last period of snow this morning exiting the region where F-Gen forcing is still favorable coupled with the moisture, so some additional accumulations are expected into the mid morning hours. Will leave advisory headlines up for now in terms of winter weather. The flood watch was cancelled given the changeover to snow.

After this last period of snow passes through additional snow showers due to lake effect are likely to form downstream on Lake Ontario resulting in additional light accumulations. The advisory continues here longer with a snow squall or two not out of the question given some instability this afternoon.
Coverage will become more spotty given the amount of mid and upper level dry air moving in. Temperatures look steady in the 30's with the cold air advection as well. Modeled soundings still show the potential for some 25-35 mph gusts to be transported to the surface as well today.

Conditions slowly clear out later today and tonight coupled with a decrease in winds as the surface low moves further away from the region. A few locations that see the most clearing and have a more pronounced snow cover should end up several degrees cooler than the national model blend overnight for lows with values generally in the 20's. A return to southwest flow ahead of the next cold front Tuesday with the potential for some sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
310 AM FORECAST...

A cold front pushes south through the area Tuesday night, bringing NW flow and cold air back into the region. Limited moisture will bring some light snow to cny Tuesday night. A weak band off of Lake Erie will form late as 850mb temps drop to -10 to -15C. This will extend into CNY behind the front. A lake effect band of snow off of Lake Ontario will extend into the Tug Wednesday morning then drop south into Oneida County midday. The current timing has this continuing to drop south into the Syracuse metro for the aftn/eve commute. Snow rates could be an inch an hour. Winds shift to the NNW pushing the band further southwest into the eastern Finger Lakes in the evening. The snow dies during the overnight. An advisory may be needed for the lake effect snow Wednesday into Wednesday evening for the typical counties of Onondaga, Oneida, Madison.
Model soundings show saturation reaching the DGZ so any snow showers should have some nice flakes allowing for at least 1-3 inches of snow to fall over portions of Onondaga, Madison and Oneida county. Duration may be the issue for higher amounts and an advisory. NEPA will be mainly dry and mostly cloudy.

Tuesday night lows will be in the 20s. Wednesday highs in the 30s. Lows Wednesday night mostly in the upper teens to lower 20s.

Thursday there will be increasing sunshine as high pressure starts to build in with drier air. Highs mostly in the 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
310 AM update...

A large area of high pressure over the mid Atlantic states will be in control across the area through this period. Consistent westerly flow ebbing between WNW and WSW will advect in a much warmer airmass from the central US for the end of the week through the weekend. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with highs mostly in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lake effect snow showers are streaming across the area from NW to SE. All terminals except for ELM should see MVFR ceilings through the afternoon hours. As the winds shift more westerly by the evening, clouds decks at AVP/BGM/ITH will lift to VFR.

SYR and RME will see impacts from lake effect snow showers into the overnight hours. Prevailing MVFR with Tempo IFR conditions will be possible at these terminals as the showers move in and out of the terminal area. Timing and location are hard to pin down with these type of showers so a broad 4hr Tempo this afternoon should capture the periodic IFR conditions. RME may see another round of IFR conditions later tonight as the winds shift more westerly and a diffuse band of snow swings through the area.

Winds gusting to 30kts will be possible at RME and SYR this afternoon. These should begin to weaken later this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ009- 018-036-037.

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Albany
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Mon -- 03:18 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:56 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:51 PM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:41 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
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Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Mon -- 03:01 AM EST     3.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:27 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     5.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:12 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
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Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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