Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sherburne, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 4:27PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:04PMMoonset 7:39AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 631 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Lake effect snow likely early. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Sunday night. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201912121600;;236333 FZUS51 KBUF 121145 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-121600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sherburne, NY
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location: 42.74, -75.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 121746 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1246 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure will provide a period of dry weather for the region through at least Friday morning. Low pressure is expected to organize as it tracks up the eastern seaboard and bring rain to the area Friday night and Saturday. Rain may briefly end as snow late Saturday as the storm systems pulls away from the area. Another round of lake-effect snow showers is likely for the second half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

Only minor adjustments to the forecast with the mid-morning and midday updates. Forecast discussion below on track.

Mid and high clouds will overspread the area from the west later this morning and afternoon as mid- level WAA and upper-jet dynamics arrive ahead of a weak disturbance. Forecast highs ranging from the upper 20s across the higher elevations of CNY to mid 30s in the Wyoming Valley are 4-8 degrees below normal.

The center of the surface high shifts off the New England coast tonight although models do show the ridge axis noses southwestward along the eastern seaboard (indicative of cold-air damming along eastern side of the Appalachians). Southerly return flow aloft around the offshore ridge will continue to advect warmer air northward up the eastern CONUS. There are indications that a marine stratus deck develops along the Mid-Atlantic coast and expands northeastward into NE PA and the W Catskills by early morning. The southerly winds should keep the boundary layer decently mixed and prevent temperatures from bottoming out. Nonetheless, it will still be a seasonably cold night with lows in the lower to mid 20s (pockets of teens in the western Catskills and southern Tug Hill Plateau).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. 645 AM Update . Quick update to account for the gradual northward retreat and overall weakening of the lake-effect snow band east of Lake Ontario. Additional snowfall amounts this morning in N/W portions of Oneida Co. should be under a half inch. Also updated the temperatures with a few sites in the Finger Lakes region (including ITH and NO3) dropping into the single digits.

4 AM Update . A complex storm system will initially be comprised of an area of low pressure over the Central Plains and another low centered along the northern Gulf-of-Mexico coast on Friday. A secondary low is expected to develop along a warm front/coastal front boundary along the Southeast Coast Friday night. Models still show this secondary coastal low deepening rather quickly as it lifts northward up the Mid-Atlantic coast early Saturday and through the upstate NY late Saturday.

The track of the low still looks to be far enough inland to yield a mainly rain event for our forecast area. However, the leading edge of precipitation could potentially produce isolated pockets of freezing mainly across the higher elevations of the Poconos and western Catskills. This icing potential would be very brief (though models tend to erode the shallow cold wedge near the surface too fast in cold-air damming setups) and contingent on the precip arriving early enough in the day (late morning, early afternoon at the latest) for the residual cold air to still be in place.

The steadiest rain looks to overspread the area late Saturday night and continue into Sunday morning. Based on the current QPF ranging between 0.75" and 1.25", not expecting much in the way of flooding issues with this event aside from localized poor drainage issues. Depending on the exact track of the low and how quickly wrap around precip shuts off, rain may end as snow once the colder air moves in on the backside of the system. There is uncertainty with the timing of a changeover but it could conceivably occur as early as Saturday afternoon across our far western zones.

Models generally agree that the low will rapidly deepen while it passes by the area and moves roughly down the Saint Lawrence Seaway Saturday night into Sunday. The broad cyclonic wind field around it will thus enhance, which along with the steep boundary layer lapse rates of wrap-around cold air advection, will result in a brisk day Sunday. Westerly winds appear likely to gust frequently in the 25-35 mph range, with isolated 40 mph gusts not totally out of the question especially for the northern zones.

After lows of around 30 to mid 30s Saturday night, temperatures move little Sunday under continued gusty cold air advection, resulting in highs of lower 30s-near 40. Steadier precipitation will diminish to scattered showers as Sunday carries on, before ending as the moisture lifts south to north. Type will be heavily reliant on elevation - mainly snow showers in high terrain and mainly rain showers in the valleys. Total snow Saturday night through Sunday will be pretty nominal for most locations, though northern Oneida County could end up with a few to several inches. Additional snow, of the lake effect variety, could occur north of the New York Thruway Sunday night as 850mb temperatures briefly dip into low to mid teens Celsius below zero in west or west-northwest flow. Lows Sunday night will be mainly 20s, except for mid teens in northern Oneida County.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 4 AM Update . With our active pattern continuing unabated, a brief break much of Monday, is likely to give away to another system moving southwest to northeast through the general area late Monday into Tuesday. All models have the system yet differ in whether tracking the primary low just south of the area as per the ECMWF, or further northwest like the GFS-Canadian models. However, even the relatively cooler ECMWF manages to get above freezing at 850mb for a sizable chunk of the area.

A snow to wintry mix scenario is anticipated for Monday night into Tuesday. There could be some snow and/or ice accumulations with this, but things could easily change considering it is quite a ways out; we will better figure out the details in coming days. It could quickly transition to rain with a northwest track, or remain mostly snow-freezing rain mix with southeastern one. However it works out, a piece of Arctic air is projected to dip behind the system into our area as we head into Midweek. As usual, this scenario could produce lake effect snow.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR through tonight. Ceilings will begin to form toward sunrise near KAVP and work northwest tomorrow morning. These ceilings are likely to lower to MVFR levels sometime tomorrow morning or perhaps early afternoon in a few locations with a fair amount of uncertainty on that timing. Marginal LLWS is also likely early tomorrow morning from about 06-12Z at all TAF sites. Some southerly wind gusts approaching 20 knots tonight and during the day Friday are also likely.

Outlook .

Friday night and Saturday . MVFR/IFR restrictions expected in periods of rain.

Saturday evening through Sunday . Rain changing to light snow with MVFR/IFR restrictions. NW wind gusts 20-30 knots.

Sunday night and Monday . VFR with winds decreasing.

Monday night and Tuesday: MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JRK NEAR TERM . JRK/MWG SHORT TERM . JRK/MDP LONG TERM . BJG/MDP AVIATION . MWG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 76 mi54 min S 8 G 12 1036.1 hPa
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 94 mi72 min SW 1.9 30°F 1039 hPa14°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY34 mi49 minSE 410.00 miFair28°F14°F56%1037.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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NW12W10W11NW9NW16NW13NW8NW9NW11NW7NW6NW3CalmCalmSE3E4E3SE4SE5SW9SW9
2 days agoSE8E7E6SE9SE6E4E5SE6CalmS65E6E6CalmCalmE33W10W4W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:49 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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01.12.43.33.94.13.62.61.610.4-0.10.11.32.94.35.15.55.24.22.91.91.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:32 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     5.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.51.62.73.43.83.83.12.11.30.80.2-00.61.93.44.55.15.34.83.62.51.60.80.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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