Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sherburne, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 140840 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 440 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure over Wisconsin will slowly move across the Great Lakes over the next several days, moving southeast of New England by the weekend. This system will bring scattered showers to the region starting before Noon, with periodic showers continuing through Friday. In some places, rain will change over to snow for a time on Thursday night, primarily in the higher elevations of the Catskills and Poconos.

Temperatures will be above normal again today, but will trend below normal for Thursday and through the weekend. Warmer conditions will return early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Valley fog developing around the Finger Lakes region has taken a bit of a pause as some mid-level clouds and even a stray showers work their way into the area from the west. Some light patchy fog will still likely develop, especially if clouds can thin out a little more before dawn. Elsewhere, expect some valley fog to start developing east of I-81 over the next hour or two.

As a broad upper low moves across the western Great Lakes today, a weak shortwave trough embedded in westerly flow will move through PA/NY, while a jet streak noses into western NY/PA in the afternoon, enhancing upper level divergence. This will help scattered showers to develop ahead of a weak cold front which looks to stall out over the area late tonight. Showers will be periodic and scattered through the day, but with a general uptrend in coverage tonight (and beyond) as the upper low moves closer. Rather similar to the pattern (and sensible weather) from earlier in the week.

Highs today still look to reach into the lower and middle-60s. Went a little cooler than guidance in the areas most likely to see showers during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The short term period will be dominated by unsettled weather as a large upper level low will slowly rotate from the Great Lakes through our region, and then off the New England coast. As this upper level low moves through our area, it will be strengthening. Meanwhile, a coastal surface low will be developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast and will slowly move northeastward to the New England coast.

In terms of sensible weather, an area of widespread rain is expected to develop Thursday morning, with the steadiest rainfall expected to be along and east of I-81. Rain will be lighter west of I-81. Rain is expected to continue through most of the day on Thursday. Up to an inch of rainfall is expected on Thursday for the far eastern portion of our forecast area (Catskills). Generally between 0.50" and 0.75" of rain is expected elsewhere east of I-81. Finally, between 0.10" and 0.50" of rain is expected west of I-81 during the day. Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s (likely falling as the afternoon progresses).

The forecast becomes more interesting/challenging for Thursday night/Friday morning. Colder air is expected to wrap around the coastal system, which will allow rain to mix with and change to snow, first across the higher elevations, then in the valleys. That being said, temperatures will be marginal, especially in the valleys. This will set the stage for elevation-dependent snow accumulations. A few inches of wet snow is expected to fall at elevations above 1500 feet in the western Catskills, with up to a few tenths of an inch of snow expected elsewhere east of I-81. Especially at the lower elevations, any snow accumulations will be mainly confined to non-paved surfaces. Right now, not expecting significant accumulations anywhere in our forecast area (these more significant accumulations are currently expected to be well east of our area towards New England). Should the track of the system shift a bit farther west, higher accumulations will be possible in our area, especially across the Catskills. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s.

The coastal low will slowly pull away to the northeast during the day on Friday, with wrap-around moisture continuing to bring mainly light precipitation to the area. Any mix of rain and snow is expected to transition back to light rain by the late morning/early afternoon. However, temperatures will be chilly for this time of the year, with highs only in the lower 40s to around 50.

Continued wrap-around moisture is expected to bring some lingering light rain and snow showers Friday evening, especially across Central NY to the Northern Tier of PA. Conditions are expected to begin to dry out late Friday night/early Saturday morning as high pressure approaches from the west. Lows are expected to be in the lower to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Brief weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure will likely bring dry conditions to the area on Saturday, along with partly sunny skies. Highs are expected to be in the lower to upper 50s.

A couple of weak disturbances may bring some scattered rain showers Sunday and Monday, but right now neither day looks like a washout. Otherwise, partly sunny skies are expected with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A cold front will bring a chance for more organized rain showers Tuesday and/or Wednesday, but timing is uncertain this far out. Depending on the timing of the front, temperatures may be cold enough Tuesday night for snow showers to mix in.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Fog has been touch-and-go so far at ELM and ITH, and the arrival of mid-level clouds will likely further interrupt any fog formation for a couple hours, but should fall back to 1 to 3SM towards dawn. Starting to become skeptical of fog at BGM given the elevation and fairly shallow low-level moisture, but will monitor. For SYR and AVP, VFR conditions still look probable through the night.

Once fog is cleared, VFR conditions will prevail from mid- morning through the afternoon Wednesday. Winds will be light out of the west- southwest. We'll see scattered showers developing late in the morning or early in the afternoon, but ceilings look to remain in the VFR range, and and visibility restrictions will be brief.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night through Friday Night . Rain showers as well as wintry mix and associated restrictions expected.

Saturday . Mostly VFR

Sunday . Possible rain showers and associated restrictions. Otherwise, mostly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BTL NEAR TERM . MPH SHORT TERM . BJG LONG TERM . BJG AVIATION . MPH

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	76 mi	63 min	SSE 5.1 G 6	43°F			1017.8 hPa	41°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY	94 mi	63 min	Calm	50°F			1017 hPa	45°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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SE16 G22

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SE16 G26

SE17 G26

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY	34 mi	40 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	33°F	89%	1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York

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