Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 3:38 PM   Moonset 2:36 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405190330;;442761 Fzus51 Kbuf 182032 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 432 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-190330- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 432 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Areas of fog in the morning otherwise partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.Sunday night - Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 190702 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 302 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Fog and clouds will be slowly dissipate through the morning hours with more sun than clouds by mid afternoon and temperatures rising into the 70s. Tomorrow is looking even warmer with dry weather continuing.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
245 AM Update:

This near term forecast is the first in a while where I have not had to add any chances of precipitation to anywhere in the forecast area. Upper level ridging has build in with water vapor imagery showing dry air advecting in aloft. With day time heating today, some of that dry air will mix down to the surface. Cloud cover this afternoon was lowered from what model guidance has as self destructive sunshine is less likely as deeper mixing will just mix in more dry air rather than lead to more cloud development. Some of the models like the NAM want to put in surface CAPE and a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon but looking at forecast soundings, it looks like the model is keeping the boundary layer a bit too moist. Still with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, some of the higher terrain like the Catskills could assist in sparking off a shower or two this afternoon but confidence was too low to add showers to the forecast.

Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling once again and it being post greenup, patchy valley fog will likely develop again in the river valleys.

Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm. With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity. Once again there is a small chance that terrain will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap but odds are low. High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region Tuesday. A weak disturbance ahead of the front is coming into better focus, passing through central New York on Tuesday. However, moisture and lift are both limited so if any shower or thunderstorm it would be brief and isolated. The NBM has caught up to what what the modeled boundary layer temperatures would yield so confidence is increasing that highs will get well up into the 80's. Continued warm air advection should keep temperatures in the 60's for lows Tuesday night.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Continued warming trend through Wednesday given the warm air advection. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at night.

A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Continued to lean more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to early to determine the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.

The front should clear the area Thursday night with high pressure building back into the region. Temperatures look to be knocked down a bit back into the 50's for lows and 70's for highs through Saturday.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low stratus has cleared from SYR, RME and ELM, but remain at BGM, ITH, and AVP. ELM has developed fog already that will likely last to around 12Z. RME will likely start to see patchy fog in the next few hours. SYR will have the toughest time to get fog to develop but given the low level moisture, some IFR restrictions are possible so put in a tempo for just before sunrise.

The stratus has been IFR at BGM and ITH with the elevation of the airports and AVP has been holding on to MVFR cigs for now.
As winds aloft become a little more northerly at AVP, the cigs will likely drop to IFR into 12Z. The stratus will likely hold through the rest of the night but if it clears, fog development will occur quickly keeping mostly IFR or worse restrictions into 12Z.

Tomorrow is looking VFR once all the fog clears out as dry air will scatter out any remaining cigs. Winds will be light and variable with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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Albany
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Sun -- 02:51 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Sun -- 02:34 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:43 PM EDT     4.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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