Aurora, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aurora, NY

June 24, 2024 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM
Moonrise 10:26 PM   Moonset 6:53 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202406241515;;569213 Fzus51 Kbuf 240843 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 443 am edt Mon jun 24 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-241515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 443 am edt Mon jun 24 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .

Today - West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely this morning, then a chance of showers early this afternoon. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.

Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Tuesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.

Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 55 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aurora, NY
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 241924 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
Gusty winds will continue into the early evening before high pressure builds in. Tonight will be cool with temperatures warming back up into the 80s tomorrow but stay mostly dry.
Wednesday has a chance at seeing some some severe thunderstorms once again with best chances in the Southern Tier and south.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
145 PM Update...

Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting 45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as drier so fog formation will be tough.

Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon.
Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there is better chances as showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
320 PM Update...

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday, mostly during the afternoon evening as a positively tilted trough dropping south of out Canada moves over the Great Lakes region and a surface cold front beings to approach from the west as well. Guidance does show a shortwave moving across the area ahead of these two features that could be the initial catalyst for storms as early as late-morning or early afternoon, but there is uncertainty in its path and timing over the CWA
There is the potential for some locally strong, perhaps even severe, storms this day, however CAPE values do look to be lower than earlier this morning, generally peaking around 1000-1500 J/kg, but the NAM is higher, closer to 2000 J/kg, but we are outside of its wheelhouse. Shear peaks around 40-50 knots and mid-level lapse rates are around 6.5-7.0 degrees C/km. Winds look to turn southwesterly ahead of the upper trough mainly over NE PA into the southern Catskills sending dew points in these areas into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and this region is where there is a slight risk out by the SPC. Much of CNY is currently outlooked under a marginal risk, so this day will be closely monitored. High temperatures Wednesday range from the low and mid 80s over CNY to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees over portions of the Twin Tiers, NE PA and southern Catskills.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to be scattered about Wednesday night as the cold front moves through. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s to the low 60s.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the west promoting dry conditions Thursday through Thursday night.
Northwest winds will set up a cool day for most on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 70s, except for the Wyoming Valley which could still approach 80 degrees. A pretty good radiational cooling night sets up Thursday night under clear skies as lows are expected to fall in the upper 40s and low 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
320 PM Update...

High pressure remains in control Friday with highs expected to return to the upper 70s to the low 80s. Another shortwave trough and surface cold front is expected to bring the chance for showers and storms unfortunately for the weekend before drier air pushes back in early next week. Highs Saturday range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s and are expected to cool slightly on Sunday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Cigs have mostly raised to VFR but winds are very gusty out of the NW. These winds will slowly lessen through the afternoon into 0Z tonight as high pressure builds in. Cigs will be scattering out through the rest of the dry air as the high pressure moves in as well. Vis restrictions were removed from ELM as the dry air moving in has brought dew points down far enough that there is a good chance that the terminal will be fog free. Tomorrow is looking VFR at all terminals.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon...VFR likely.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KPEO PENN YAN,NY 18 sm49 minNW 10G1810 smClear75°F52°F44%29.86
KITH ITHACA TOMPKINS RGNL,NY 22 sm46 minNW 1010 smPartly Cloudy
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Wind History graph: PEO
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Tide / Current for
   
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Binghamton, NY,




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