Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Ledge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 5:06PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:29 AM EST (10:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:42PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 405 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Early this morning..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering south to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 7 to 11 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A slight chance of drizzle. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering west. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201912122100;;229006 FZUS53 KGRR 120905 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-122100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI
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location: 42.75, -84.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 120828 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 328 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

- Warm advection light precipitation this afternoon (light snow / to drizzle)over northern CWA

- Light freezing drizzle west and north overnight/ some travel impacts possible by Friday morning

- Cold front brings lake effect snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. Expect some light accumulations west of US-131

- Significant snow event possible (looking more likely) Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Colder with lake effect into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

There are three major systems heading our way in the next week. First is a weak system that should bring us mostly light snow to drizzle northwest today and freezing drizzle tonight. Then a major east coast storm will pull cold air into this area late Saturday into midday Sunday, that will bring a 1 to 3 inch lake effect snow event with it. Finally there is still the potential for a major snow storm later Monday into Tuesday morning.

Afternoon and overnight system .

We have a weak shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes today but the problem is there is a much stronger system upstream, on the southern branch of the polar jet, coming on shore as I write this. That will cause our system today to minor out as it moves through the area. Which means the front stalls near us tonight as the next upstream system pushes warm air back toward us due to the digging trough, which by sunrise Friday will be over the midwest. The warm advection lift precipitation will mostly be north of our CWA today into early tonight. However as the front stalls we have a persistent southwest winds (50 to 60 knots between 900 and 800 mb) which brings warm air into our area. Our surface temperatures will rise above freezing south of Route 10 by midday. The freezing level rises to near 2000 ft by evening. So any light snow with the warm advection push (near route 10 this afternoon) will change to light rain or drizzle by late in the day.

Tonight the deep moisture moves out so the DGZ will not be saturated but the speed convergence and stalled front will trap low level moisture and cause some drizzle tonight, mostly from the lake shore to US-131. The question is will the surface temp fall below freezing? Inland north of GRR has the best chance but that area may be to far inland to see much drizzle. So for now no weather advisory but we may need one if the next shift believes there is a greater risk of accumulating freezing drizzle.

Saturday evening lake snow event .

This is the big east coast storm that will bring the cold air back into our area. However the cold air push will be shortlived as an even strong system comes onshore over the western CONUS Saturday. That will force the shortwave trough brining the cold air in east. Even so we get about 18 hours of cold enough air and deep enough moisture for lake effect snow. This seems like a 1 to 3 inch sort of event.

The Monday system .

The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and the ECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closer to us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRR from the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low dropping south into and southern stream system, this could be power house storm. We will have to watch this closely.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 635 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday afternoon. Winds will go light and variable overnight then southeast to south winds will increase Thursday morning to 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 30 knots through the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

We may have gales for a few hours this afternoon but for now we will keep all as is. This may chance in the next hour or so.


GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday for MIZ037-043-050-056.

LM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . Ostuno MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 78 mi101 min ESE 8 G 12 20°F 35°F1031.7 hPa12°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 90 mi39 min S 16 G 17 22°F 1034.2 hPa13°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 91 mi89 min SW 9.9 G 12 18°F 1033.5 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI8 mi36 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy16°F10°F77%1035.2 hPa
Charlotte, Fitch H Beach Airport, MI13 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair14°F10°F83%1032.8 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI21 mi34 minS 410.00 mi15°F10°F84%1033.5 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI21 mi34 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast17°F11°F77%1032.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW19
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W13W10W10W9W5CalmSW3S3CalmSE3CalmE3SE3SE5
1 day agoNW13NW14
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NW7NW9NW13W8NW7W13W12W13W10W7W11W10SW9SW10SW7SW9SW10SW10SW13
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2 days agoS9S7S8SE9S9S8
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S9SW12SW10W6SW11SW7SW10SW13SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.