Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Ledge, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:16PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 3:33 AM EDT (07:33 UTC) Moonrise 1:20AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Tue Jul 14 2020
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering west 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering east after midnight. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots backing northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots backing southwest toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202007150900;;862059 FZUS53 KGRR 150205 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-150900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Ledge, MI
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location: 42.75, -84.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 150718 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

- Most of the convection will be north of I-96 today

- Severe storms not out of the question this evening

- Heavy rain threat after midnight south of I-96

- Warmer with convection over the weekend

- Cooler early next week then warmer and wet later in week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

--Most of the convection will be north of I-96 today--

This is one of those events where bifurcation rules. The northern stream jet is over Lake Superior at 8 pm tonight, and the associated low level jet is north of Route 10. Most of the dynamic energy for convection today will be over our northern CWA and really more so north of our CWA. The HREF 3 hour PPM has nearly all the precipitation near and north of Route 20, or Big Rapids northward, and really more of it will be well north of there given the low level jet core is north of our CWA today.

--Severe storms not out of the question this evening--

I am not sold on the idea of severe storms in our CWA in the next 24 hours. The median effective shear from the SPC SREF reaches 30 knots only over upper Michigan during the late afternoon into the early evening. That fits the low and upper level jet dynamics nicely. That is also were most of the surface based cape will be. The SREF (SPC) has surface based cape near or greater than 1000 j/kg north of our CWA at 8 pm. It would seem to me whatever happens on the cold front will largely stay north and west of this area. It would not be out of the question to see storm with gusty winds reach near and north of Muskegon by sunset.

--Heavy rain threat after midnight south of I-96--

Here is where the bifurcation comes into play, the primary upper level jet stays north of this area today and tonight, but we do get into the right entrance region of the departing polar jet after midnight. Given the high amounts of precipitable water (around 2 inches) it would seem a surface wave is likely to form on the front and track south of our CWA. That is supported by nearly all of our convection allowing models. The glitch is how far north does that rain get? The models are all over the place on that. The ECMWF, GFS and HRRR seem to want most of that rain to stay south of I-96 and really south of I-94. If that played out that way very little precipitation would occur between I-96 and I-94. Still it HREF from the 00z model run has over and inch of rain over most of western CWA between midnight and sunrise. This fits the NAM solution best. There is not much unstably with the rain overnight, this would for the most part be just showers or at best elevated thunderstorms with little of any severe threat.

Depending on how much of a surface wave actually develops on the front tonight, will tell us how long the showers linger into Thursday. If the NAM were to be correct there could be over an inch of rain in the I-69 area during the daytime on Thursday.

-- Warmer with convection over the weekend--

The trough moves east of our area by Friday so skies should clear and it will warm up some as upper level heights rise in front of the next Pacific shortwave tracking east in the upper level flow. That next Pacific system is looking a little stronger than it did a few days ago. This results in higher mid and upper level heights, so I would expect higher high temperatures Saturday and maybe Sunday than we had with the last period of hot temperatures.

Similar to todays event, the polar jet stays north of this area but the surface front will come through Sunday as some point. So the question is when does the front actually get here. I am thinking Saturday night is the most likely time for convection with this system. I would not expect widespread rain from this system.

--Cooler early next week then warmer and wet later in week--

That next system does bring down cool enough air that early next week should be like the past few days were. Then the next Pacific shortwave reaches this area midweek with another warm up and convective risk.


AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1243 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Looking at VFR conditions through the period. Current radar shows a band of showers and thunderstorms extending from the UP southwest to northern IL. Models suggest this line will weaken as it tries to move east early this morning, then redevelop later this afternoon and evening. Will include VCTS late in the period for the thunder threat.

MARINE. Issued at 318 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

With no strong surface system winds will remain below small craft criteria. The cold advection behind the cold front tonight is weak at best so I do not see much of a marine threat. The surface wave on the front will be south of our area so that should not be much of a threat either.


GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . 04 MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 78 mi64 min 62°F1016.3 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 90 mi24 min S 18 G 19 67°F 1015.7 hPa59°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 91 mi34 min S 18 G 21 74°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI8 mi41 minSSE 710.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1017.7 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI21 mi39 minSSE 510.00 miFair67°F66°F100%1018.6 hPa
Ionia County Airport, MI21 mi38 minSSE 610.00 miFair67°F57°F71%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmCalmCalmSW4Calm3Calm4W5S46SW8S10
G16
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1 day agoNW3NW3NW3NW3NW5N4NW54NW7N74CalmNE4NW7N5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW3CalmW3NW33NW6NW6W7NW65NW7NW7NW5N6NW4N4N7N4N6N8N5N4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.