Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 9:49 PM   Moonset 6:14 AM

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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 805 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering west, then veering northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds to 30 knots veering south gales to 35 knots after midnight. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet toward daybreak. Saturday - South gales to 35 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 8 feet. Sunday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Monday - South winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 251132 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 732 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Temperatures continue into Friday

- Periods of Showers and Thunderstorms Friday Night through Monday

- Well Above Normal Temperatures This Weekend into Next Week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

- Cold Temperatures continue into Friday

Freeze warning continues this morning. Temperatures have dropped to around freezing already with dewpoints in the mid to upper 20s. Expect as winds calm towards sunrise, Minimum temperatures will drop.
The upper level ridge will settle over the region this morning with dry air overhead. Expect sunny skies through Thursday into Friday. With mostly clear skies another round of freezing temperatures will be possible tonight into Friday morning.
While there is less of a signal Temperatures could drop to around 30 east of US 131. However, there are several caveats. One is that easterly winds could bring moist flow that could bring dewpoints to at to above freezing. Also, any winds could preclude any frost/freeze. Dayshift will have to make final determination but it remains possible.
Skies will overspread the region Friday morning with Temperatures rebounding daytime Friday into the mid to upper 60s.

- Periods of Showers and Thunderstorms Friday Night through Monday

Periods of showers and storms are expected beginning Friday night and lasting into Monday. A deep and persistent southwest flow will be in place across the Great Lakes. This regime will supply deep moisture to the region with a source off the Gulf of Mexico. A blocking area of high pressure off the middle Atlantic and Southeast U.S. coast will keep the moisture feed in place for our region.
Surface dew points will push into the 60s and precipitable water values will be between 1.00 and 1.50 inches. Rainfall amounts over multiple days will begin to add up. Totals by Tuesday morning will likely range from around 1.50 inches towards Ludington to 0.50 towards Jackson.

An oscillating boundary will be near our area much of the time initially moving in as a warm front Friday night. We will be positioned in the warm sector on Saturday. The boundary stalls near Central Michigan Saturday night before moving north again on Sunday.
A cold front will finally move through Monday evening. Best chances for storms will likely occur on Saturday when 1000 to 2000 j/kg of MUCAPE is forecast. Sunday is another time frame that will need to be watched as MUCAPE values again exceed 1000 j/kg with the warm front surging north.

There are not many forecast periods that are dry once we get to Friday night...April showers.

- Well Above Normal Temperatures This Weekend into Next Week

850mb temperatures are in the teens C for the most part from Friday night through Tuesday. These are essentially summer time values and the resultant surface temperatures are warm as well. ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance show highs in the 70s each day from Saturday through Tuesday. For reference today's high in Grand Rapids is 62. We will be well into the 70s Saturday through Tuesday, so we will at least be 10-20 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 734 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. Little in the way of cloud cover is expected. The only clouds will be some cirrus moving through today with bases at or above 20,000 feet. Winds will be light out of the east and northeast for the most part. The exception will be Muskegon where a lake breeze from the southwest will develop this afternoon. All winds are expected to remain below 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Winds have slackened with good weather continuing into Friday Southwest winds will increase on Friday afternoon and a SCA may be needed for Friday night and Saturday. We have lowered NBM winds for Saturday since we expect the stronger winds to remain aloft in a warm advection pattern, so we do not expect to reach gales at this time.

CLIMATE
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 25TH

Grand Rapids... 22 in 1967 Lansing... 17 in 1909 Muskegon... 24 in 1967 Kalamazoo... 22 in 1919 Battle Creek... 23 in 1967

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...None.

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