Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beechwood, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:01AMSunset 5:12PM Monday December 9, 2019 11:34 PM EST (04:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 5:08AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..West winds to 30 knots veering northwest late at night, then becoming to 30 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers with snow showers likely. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots veering northwest 15 to 25 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing southeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet toward daybreak.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South winds around 15 knots veering west. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201912101000;;119028 FZUS53 KGRR 100305 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-101000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beechwood, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 100250 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 950 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Update

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

- Turning colder tonight behind a cold frontal passage

- Occasional lake effect snow late tonight through Wednesday

- Only light accumulations of snow expected

- No major systems expected the remainder of the forecast period

UPDATE. Issued at 947 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Strong wind gusts this evening are capable of producing scattered power outages. Most locations will gust in the 30 to 40 mph range . but locally higher values are expected. The wind will diminish slowly after midnight. We did increase the winds in the forecast as a result and updated the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Temperatures will be falling below freezing mainly midnight and beyond. A band of snow has been advertised by some of the High Res Models around the transition to freezing time. So some slick spots will be possible . again mainly after midnight.

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

First and main order of business in the 7 day forecast is whether or not we need headlines for the winter weather expected over the course of the next couple of days. The short answer is we will not be issuing any winter headlines with this forecast update. Confidence in seeing winter impacts is low and we therefore have held off on Winter Weather headlines.

A cold front will blast through the area this evening, with temperatures tumbling into the 20s overnight. The front should sweep through the area between 700pm and midnight. The front will bring a band of rain/snow showers through the area during this time frame, but it should be fairly narrow and weakening so we are not expecting any impacts with it. Despite the temperature plummet, we are not expecting roads to freeze up given the light nature of the precipitation and the strength of the winds. Westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph should dry things out fairly quick. Some lake effect will get going overnight, but it may take the bulk of the night to get some moisture and lift into the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). Any accumulation by morning would be a dusting at best.

Tuesday into Wednesday, there will be periods of lake effect snow, but the negatives in this event outweigh the positives. Moisture depth is very shallow on the order of 4,000ft or less for the bulk of the event. There is some lift in a very shallow DGZ. NAM 3km forecast reflectivity is rather weak as well. On the upside, delta t's increase in the low 20s C, but that low level instability can only go so far with paltry amounts of moisture. We feel the best snow shower activity will be Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. Total snowfall amounts will likely be on the inch or less variety in most areas, with a 1-3 inch snow possible over 36-48 hours over the northwest CWA up towards Ludington, Scottville, Baldwin and Newaygo. Bottom line is we are not confident enough in significant impacts occurring over a widespread area for a headline. We will continue to message the event at this point through forecast products and social media.

Two weak events are possible beyond the Tues/Wed event and they are centered out on Thursday and then again over the weekend. The Thursday event may largely miss us to the north. Friday night into Sunday another low will slide through the area with chances for light rain and snow. The bulk of the precipitation looks to be centered in the Saturday/Saturday night time frame. Temperatures will be riding the rain/snow line so we have both in the forecast.

Temperatures through the 7 day period will be a bit up and down, with the coldest air in place Tuesday into Wednesday. We warm up to near normal for Friday ahead of the Saturday low.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

The colder airmass was starting to work its way in from the west with west to southwest winds now at KGRR and KMKG. Thus a transition to some snow is expected at the TAF sites tonight. There is an indication that a band of snow could occur roughly 03z to 08z dropping southeast through the TAF sites. I did include a lowering of visibilities for a period then. Either way much of the evening will see IFR for the sites . but a trend upward has been noted for parts of the area.

As the colder and drier air works in from the west . generally cloud bases will climb somewhat . into the MVFR category for Tuesday. There will be moisture coming off of Lake MI so snow showers will be around much of Tuesday with local brief impacts . IFR and lower . expected.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

A burst of winds will occur this evening behind a cold front in the 600pm to midnight range. The winds will be of the cold advection variety so they will be efficient in driving wave heights up. Waves will build into the 6 to 10 foot range tonight, with the highest waves from Grand Haven to the south. Given the short duration of the highest winds and waves (essentially this evening) have decided to hold off on any Lakeshore Flood headline. Gale force winds will be possible this evening for about 3 hours and we felt this was too short to go with a Gale Warning. So, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from this evening right through the day on Wednesday. We expanded the SCA in time given fairly strong westerly winds tonight-Tuesday-Tuesday night- Wednesday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.



UPDATE . MJS SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . MJS MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 0 mi52 min W 25 G 30 36°F 40°F1002.9 hPa31°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 26 mi34 min WSW 24 G 28 35°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi24 min WNW 25 G 29 34°F 1004.3 hPa31°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 49 mi34 min W 22 G 28 35°F 1006.8 hPa (+5.4)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi41 minWNW 14 G 2710.00 miOvercast35°F28°F78%1003.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE5S5S5S5S5SE6SE9S10SW8SW14
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1 day agoS7S9S10S11S14S13S11S12S11S10S8SW21
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2 days agoSE3SE3S3CalmS4S6S8S8S7S9S9S9S9S8S9S8S7S5SE6S6S7S7S7S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.