Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Newburyport, MA

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Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:19PM Thursday July 18, 2019 2:36 AM EDT (06:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 6:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The remnants of barry spread across the waters late today through midday Thu. High pres builds across northern new england on Thu producing e-ne winds across the waters. The high will move E across nova scotia Thu night. South to southwest winds will bring a build up of heat and humidity Fri and Sat. A cold front approaches on Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and Thunderstorms. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburyport, MA
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location: 42.81, -70.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180329
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1129 pm edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across central and
southern areas through the overnight as a cold front slowly
pushes south. More showers are expected into Thursday, which
may also result in localized flooding. Hot and humid conditions
Friday through Sunday with heat related headlines likely but
will be watching for possible surprise thunderstorm activity. A
sweeping cold front Monday with a scattered line of showers and
thunderstorm Monday behind which relief in the form of
seasonable temperatures, lower humidity is on tap into late july.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
1050 pm update...

while the watches ended at 8 pm for severe and flash flood
potential, another area of showers and scattered thunderstorms
pushed across SE ny SW ct this evening. This area has been
moving steadily a bit north of due e, with another round of
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms moving into W central
ri. Noting c g lightning in that area at 03z, along with winds
up to about 25 kt or so. Also seeing another batch of sct
thunderstorms
any spotty convection across NE ct ri interior SE mass may
linger through around 06z-07z, then should dissipate as the
area of precip continues to shift E through the remainder of
the night.

General calm or light SW winds in place across the region as a
trough across N ri NE ct weakens further overnight. However,
with high pwats and enough convergence, sct showers will linger
through the remainder of the night.

Areas of dense fog will be a concern for mainly the islands,
though could reach to the S coast overnight with low t td
spreads there.

Expect temps to bottom out in the lower-mid 70s at most
locations, though could be a bit cooler across the higher
inland terrain.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
* additional showers with localized heavy rainfall will be a
concern on Thursday mainly south of the ma turnpike.

After a lull in the activity later tonight, showers should
increase in coverage toward daybreak Thursday. Showers will
continue at times Thursday with the focus south of the ma
turnpike. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible. We
can not rule out localized flooding mainly south of the ma
turnpike, in the vicinity of a stalled boundary and higher
pwats. Confidence is rather low though on what exactly will
transpire, but if any flooding occurs it probably will be rather
localized. High temperatures on Thursday will be held mainly in
the 70s with clouds and a northeast flow.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
* highlights ...

- hot and humid Friday thru Sunday, likely heat-related headlines
- sweeping cold front with possible showers, thunderstorms Monday
- relief with lower humidity, comfortable conditions after Monday
* overview ...

mid-july heat, late-july relief. S u.S. Heat bubble brought about by
gulf of ak low (+epo) and SW CONUS monsoon high. Contributions from
the two, subsequent heat pump and higher heights per h85 temperature
anomalies around +5c, for example. Near-flat flow across the N conus
and S canada, will be watching closely heat humidity instability
preceding any ejecting N pacific mid-level impulses, whether there's
any shower and or thunderstorm activity, plus barry's remnants. But
into late-july a possible h5 pattern retrograde. Shift to a -epo as
the 4-corners monsoonal h5 high builds. Deeper E CONUS h5 troughing
with prevailing NW flow aloft points towards relief of cooler, drier
canadian air being ushered s. CPC 8-14 day outlook hints at possible
below-average surface temperatures for the great lakes into the ne
conus. Break down the details below.

* details ...

Friday through Sunday ...

hot and humid. H85 temperatures around +20-22c, h7 around +10-12c.

But concern. Steep mid-level lapse rates around Saturday, a lot of
low-level instability. Shear vectors and orientation that suggest
that if something were to become organized over michigan within the
region of steep mid level lapse rates and advect that perhaps we
could see MCS derecho activity Saturday and Sunday. Initial
thinking, but nothing set in stone. Initial indications per 17.12z
nam and 17.0z ec, but not much indication in SREF gfs. It would
subsequently impact 2m temperature with cloud cover altering the
heat and humidity forecast. Typically when we get the heat and
humidity where highs alone approach triple digits do we see via
climatology MCS derecho events. Continued forecast of mid to
upper 90 highs, some locations at or just slightly above 100
with dewpoints in the low 70s as boundary layer moisture is
trapped beneath the cap, fueled by S flow, yielding heat indices
around the triple digits, for some locations at or above 110f.

Beginning Monday ...

relief. Pattern change discussed in overview, a series of sweeping
cold fronts will prevail beneath preferred h5 troughing across NE n
america. Usherance of cooler, drier air S out of canada along the
leading edge of which a line of scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity is to be expected, Monday into Monday night especially.

Indications of a decent plume of continental-tropical moisture that
precedes the cold front. Timing crucial as early indications suggest
modest uni-directional deep-layer SW shear, accompanying instability
plume nudging into S new england. Low confidence forecast, something
to closely monitor. Seasonable temperatures around the low to mid
80s with much lower humidity, comfortable conditions after the cold
front sweeps through.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Overnight... Most areas were mainlyVFR at 03z, except lifr-vlifr
conditions across the lower and mid CAPE as well as the islands
with SW wind flow keeping areas of fog across those locations.

Conditions may lower across portions of NE ct ri SE interior
mass after 07z or so in patchy fog. Sct showers and isolated
thunderstorms still a possibility through around 07z mainly near
and S of the mass pike.

Thursday... MVFR to ifr conditions expected in rounds
of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. The
heaviest rainfall may setup near and south of the ma
turnpike... Which may result in brief lifr conditions. Lifr
conditions also possible in fog across the southeast new england
coast.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ... High confidence.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday through Sunday night:VFR. Slight chance shra,
isolated tsra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Overnight and Thursday... Showers and isolated tstms will
continue at times overnight into Thursday along with areas of
fog. Also, will have to watch for a period of northeast wind
gusts of 20 to 25 knots across the northern waters behind the
remnants of barry, where a small craft advisory may be needed.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ... High confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday night through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers,
isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Climate
Record highs for Wednesday july 17 are as follows:
bos: 98f in 1977 & 1999
bdl: 97f in 1999
pvd: 97f in 1977 & 1999
orh: 93f in 1900
record highest min temps for Saturday july 20:
bos: 75 in 2016
bdl: 73 in 1975
pvd: 77 in 1983
orh: 72 in 2013
record highs for Saturday july 20:
bos: 99 in 1991
bdl: 100 in 1991
pvd: 101 in 1991
orh: 92 in 1901
record highest min temps for Sunday july 21:
bos: 81 in 1991
bdl: 74 in 1977
pvd: 77 in 1980
orh: 73 in 1991

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Evt
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell evt
marine... Frank sipprell evt
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 17 mi37 min W 6 G 6 72°F 1011.7 hPa (+0.0)72°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 17 mi112 min Calm 73°F 1012 hPa72°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi93 min WSW 12 G 14 72°F 70°F1 ft1012.1 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 33 mi67 min 76°F 1012.4 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 34 mi47 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 72°F 70°F1 ft1010.8 hPa (+0.0)72°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 35 mi93 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 67°F 65°F1 ft1011.9 hPa
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 37 mi59 min 70°F2 ft
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 39 mi67 min E 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 56°F1012.6 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 40 mi97 min W 1 71°F 70°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA14 mi43 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1012.7 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi44 minNW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F91%1011.1 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH20 mi1.7 hrsN 04.00 miFog/Mist73°F72°F100%1012 hPa

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW8SW7SW6S6SW5SW7S65SW9W8W6S7W9NW4S4S4CalmS3S3SW3SW4S4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmSW5SW6SW86W9W8W8SW9W4S6S4CalmS6SW7SW6SW5SW7
2 days agoNW5NW6NW4NW3465W8W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Newburyport
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Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     8.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:11 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM EDT     7.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.98.68.37.35.842.10.5-0.20.21.8467.27.46.95.94.52.91.60.812.44.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
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Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:48 AM EDT     1.70 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:55 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:34 PM EDT     -1.05 knots Min Ebb
Thu -- 06:13 PM EDT     -1.06 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.7-0.2-0.9-1.2-1.3-1.3-1-0.20.611.51.71.10.2-0.5-1-1.1-1.1-1-0.40.50.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.