Saturday, July24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Glarus, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:29PM Saturday July 24, 2021 2:44 PM CDT (19:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 106 Pm Cdt Sat Jul 24 2021
Rest of today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering northwest after midnight backing west early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Haze in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
LMZ645 Expires:202107242200;;386347 FZUS53 KMKX 241806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-242200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Glarus, WI
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location: 42.81, -89.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 241500 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 950 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021)

First round of showers are pushing eastward across central and northeast WI. Most of this activity is diminishing as it pushes into our area this morning with the weak cold front tracking southeastward. Will continue to see these showers diminish through this morning, but there is a potential for redevelopment this afternoon.

There is still a potential for a few thunderstorms to develop as the cold front pushes through the area later today. Despite the varying degrees of CAM solutions, will give a bit more credence to the 00z NAMNest solution as it seems to be handling the current convective trends best this morning. The greatest chance to see thunderstorms will be between 18z-22z and will mainly be southeast of a line from Milwaukee to Monroe. Since we stayed very warm last night, temps were able to quickly recover and already seeing temps creep into the 80s this morning with dewpoints in the low 70s for the area of concern. Combine this muggy airmass with effectivee bulk shear around 30-40 knots, MLCAPE expected to at least increase to above 1000 J/kg, along with lift from passing cold front, might be enough to form a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Given the steepening low-level lapse rates and decent shear vectors perpendicular to the front, any storms that may develop could become strong to severe capable of producing gusty to damaging winds and hail.

The biggest hindrance to any stronger thunderstorms potential will be the increased cloud cover associated with this morning's decaying showers, which could ultimately end up limiting the destabilization this afternoon. Based on 14z satellite imagery, clouds encompass a bulk of the area this morning. There are a few pockets of clearing in the southeast where our greatest potential for thunderstorms exists, but these clouds are expected to fill in over the next few hours. Additionally looking at the upstream 12z DVN sounding, it is showing some decent mid-level dry air, which may limit development and maintenance of anything that develops later today.

Nevertheless, we continue to monitor trends in the southeast portion of the area for thunderstorm development this afternoon.

Wagner

SHORT TERM. (Issued 434 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021)

Today through Sunday:

WAA and convergence at the nose of an 850mb jet and an advancing cold front have led to convection over northern WI this morning. This convection is generally anticipated to follow the eastward propagation of a 500mb shortwave into lower Michigan after daybreak, while the southward reaches of convection dissipate as the better forcing wanes and exits. As the cold front moves southeast, nebulous surface convergence and the right entrance region of a 300mb jetlet will refire convection during the daytime hours today. Some questions do remain however, mainly in the form of cloud cover and where that afternoon convection can get going. Convection over MN, IA and western WI is dying, but if cloud debris lingers or spreads in coverage over southern WI, the threat for storms will be somewhat lessened today. If enough thermal insolation gets through ahead of the advancing front, thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the southeastern half of our CWA. Models that have clearing, show that MLCAPE will reach 1500 to 2000 j/kg. Effective shear will be more boundary perpendicular instead of parallel and will be in the 35 to 40 kt range, supporting storm organization, and maybe some transient supercellular structures. With the shortwave exiting over Lower Michigan, some residual subsidence should exist over the region as well. The subsidence and boundary perpendicular shear could support a more discrete mode in storms initially before cold pools conglomerate. While 0-3km CAPE indicates some good low- level stretching potential today, relatively veered sfc winds and straight hodographs may limit a tornado threat in favor of a marginally severe hail and severe wind threat, in some of the stronger storms.

Temperatures today are also in question as the cloud cover could severely hinder how high temps climb. Current thinking is that the far southeastern corner of the state sees the most sunshine and sees the low 90s while areas toward central Wisconsin rise into the mid to upper 80s, hindered a bit by more cloud cover. Heat indices in far southeastern WI will likely touch 100 if they get enough sunshine today.

After the cold front exits Saturday evening, high pressure will build in for Sunday. It'll be less humid, but smoke will remain aloft and it'll stay hot with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.

CMiller

LONG TERM. (Issued 434 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021)

Sunday night through Friday:

Surface high pressure remains over southern Wisconsin to start the new week and will keep things dry for Monday. Despite the N/NW flow aloft the overall mid-upper level heights/temps won't change much from Sunday and highs stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the ridge out west providing a persistent W/NW wind flow the wildfires in the west and in Canada should continue to send smoke our way, which translates into persistent haze to the skies. The surface high begins to retreat to the E/SE towards the TN Valley and winds turn back to the south.

There is some differences between guidance in how to handle some of the shortwaves moving along the N/NE fringe of the western ridge. GFS is a bit more active next week in bringing waves through the region and has more in the way of storms. While the ECMWF does advertise the shortwaves the ridge into the Upper Midwest is a bit stronger compared to the GFS. The result of that is a delay in activity next week until Wed night/Thursday. Will stick to a blend of guidance at this time due to the continued uncertainty in how models handle the ridge and shortwaves moving through the flow. Highs should start to lower by the end of the week as it does look like we get into more of a NW flow with the ridge moving towards the southern Plains/desert SW. We'll still have highs in the lower 80s but that is close to normal for this time of year.

Stumpf

AVIATION. (Issued 950 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021)

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A cold front is expected to work its way through the area this afternoon and bring another shot at some showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the southeast part of the state. With any of this activity, you could see reduced visibility, lower ceilings, and gustier winds for a brief period. Otherwise, expect breezy southwesterly winds to around 20 knots this afternoon before diminishing and shifting more west-northwesterly behind the front this evening. Drier air behind the front with high pressure building into the region on Sunday will keep things quiet overnight into Sunday.

Wagner

MARINE. (Issued 434 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021)

Low pressure will lift northeast from northern Lake Superior today and drag a cold front southeast over Lake Michigan. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible over the northern half of the lake during the first half of the day, with shower and thunderstorm activity shifting to the southern half of the lake in the afternoon as the cold front sink southeast. Southwest winds will be modestly gusty, as Lake Michigan will be on the periphery of a eastward moving 850mb jet and mixing will at least tap into some of that momentum.

Locally, the momentum transfer down to the surface will lead to wind gusts to just below small craft advisory in the nearshore waters. Trends will be monitored closely this morning to see if a small craft advisory will be needed during the afternoon hours. Confidence is low in how many stronger gusts we'll see during the afternoon at the moment.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 94 mi35 min W 13 G 18 89°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 98 mi45 min W 16 G 21 89°F 1008.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe Municipal Airport, WI14 mi50 minW 9 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F71°F58%1011.2 hPa
Middleton Muni - Morey Field, WI22 mi50 minWNW 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F68°F48%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFT

Wind History from EFT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW10SW13
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1 day agoS7SW7SW9SW8S4S5S4S4S5SW5SW4S5SW7SW7SW5--SW5SW9SW9SW6S5S6S6SW10
2 days agoE4E6CalmE4SE3SE3S3SE6SE6E6SE5S5SE5SE6SE5SE4S6S7S7SW6S4CalmSW8SW6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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